Elias sounds like he is shooting high

[clapdiddy]

5 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

A few things:

Could Swanson potentially be a target for 2B, especially with the shift coming? He could be and elite guy there, especially as he is durable, a +dWar guy, and has the potential for 25+ HRs a year?

Archer's numbers aren't terribly far from what Lyles was bringing when we signed him. His splits are interesting to look over from last year,but its also really his first full season back from TOS surgery. He would probably come much cheaper than Lyles 7 Million in 2022, but I would only support this if Elias picked up at least 2 other starters via trade or FA.  Archer should be in competition for #5 or the long relief option if he's truly been identified as a 4-5 inning max starter.

Whatever backup catcher we end up with probably won't wow anyone. Probably just hoping for something stronger than Chirinos' +58 OPS+

I like Swanson a lot.  However, I don't think he's a 25 HR guy in this park.  He's a very good player, but he's going to get paid a TON from someone and I don't think he's going to be worth the contract he gets.

[btdart20]

33 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/chris-archer-502042?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

Yep, looks rough...  

2 thoughts: 

1. He threw more SL than 4S last year.  Sequencing could be a path to improvement.

2. But his 4-seamer has plus 'hop' that metrics-driven treasure hunters seek.  But he doesn't have a good secondary pitch so hitters can key in on the FB.  He has shown a better SL and CH years ago, so maybe they tap into that.

He's a MiLB project, not a rotational piece for a competitive team at this point.  Not sure how we're talking about Archer in November vs. Jan/Feb.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

13 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

Could Swanson potentially be a target for 2B, especially with the shift coming? He could be and elite guy there, especially as he is durable, a +dWar guy, and has the potential for 25+ HRs a year?

Other than his contract year in 2022, Swanson has been a below average hitter by measure of OPS+ in every full season of his career, and for his career overall.

Whoever gives him a 9 figure contract is probably going to regret it.

[wildcard]

Archer signing depends on what Holt thinks of him.   The O's acquired Voth when his ERA was 10.00.  And Holt, the Wall and the O's defense shaved Lyles ERA from 5.15 to 4.42.  If Holt sees something he thinks  he could improve then its possible he could fit.

But I don't believe Jack Rose at this point.

Edited November 14, 2022 by wildcard

[Just Regular]

Archer's on his way out of baseball, but any former Ace who feels like trying the Eck-Smoltz type things on their way down the ladder probably will get extra chances to do so like Jim Palmer, Johan Santana, Felix Hernandez, Matt Harvey, Jake Taylor, etc.

I don't think we're to the detail work of the offseason where whether Mychal Givens, Zack Britton, Brad Boxberger, Matt Strahm or Chris Archer is the best use of that 2X or 3X of the MLB minimum is close to the top of the list yet.

 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

OK, I will admit those numbers are pretty brutal.   But let’s say the O’s think they’ve spotted a mechanical flaw they can fix, and want to take a $2 mm flyer on Archer?   I don’t think that’s so terrible, so long as that’s not the big pitching move of the offseason.  Every year there’s a few veterans who’d been given up for dead who make a good contribution to a team.  Look at Michael Wacha last year.

I know you like to defend the team at all levels and try to always find the positive in things but this is a huge reach.

It’s not like he’s young or had recent big years or anything like that.  He is what he is and, on top of all of that, he’s oft injured and not reliable.

Zero justification for a move like this.  I refuse to believe Elias is this dumb, so I don’t buy the rumor at all.

[btdart20]

22 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Archer signing depends on what Holt thinks of him.   The O's acquired Voth when his ERA was 10.00.  And Holt, the Wall and the O's defense shaved Lyles ERA from 5.15 to 4.42.  If Holt sees something he thinks  he could improve then its possible he could fit.

But I don't believe Jack Rose at this point.

Elias' expectations (and ours) heading into (and in the early part of 2022) was in a completely different place than expectations are heading into 2023.

Completely agreed with you on 'depends on what Holt thinks of him' but in the context of Archer being a reclamation project.  It's been a few years since he's posted a solid season, but he's done it and he's not ancient.  But our MLB squad isn't building around a reclamation project.  I'm fine with him somewhere on the food chain, he's just not the apex/TOR, secondary/MOR or tertiary/BOR predator for a competing team. 

If they are confident enough to toss him some money and a guaranteed ML contract, fine.  But don't let it prevent us from moving up the food chain.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I know you like to defend the team at all levels and try to always find the positive in things but this is a huge reach.

How can I defend the team for a move that hasn’t happened, and probably won’t?  But I don’t think the idea itself would be terrible, at a cheap price.  

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

How can I defend the team for a move that hasn’t happened, and probably won’t?  But I don’t think the idea itself would be terrible, at a cheap price.  

For someone who likes stats, analysis, etc…it’s hard to imagine how you can think this.

[Aristotelian]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I know you like to defend the team at all levels and try to always find the positive in things but this is a huge reach.

It’s not like he’s young or had recent big years or anything like that.  He is what he is and, on top of all of that, he’s oft injured and not reliable.

Zero justification for a move like this.  I refuse to believe Elias is this dumb, so I don’t buy the rumor at all.

+1, I don't see how Archer fits with the Plan. Talk about befuddling moves, this would be a real head scratcher. Would be the P equivalent of Odor except in a year we are coming off .500 and are hitting the window with our top prospects. 

[tabletop]

What is so bad about Chris Archer? Nothing wrong with adding someone like Archer if you think you can fix them. He was always pretty solid in Tampa Bay and then seemed to really fall off after the trade to Pittsburgh. Every team, even the 100+ win teams like Houston and LAD, are always signing / trading / claiming guys for cheap that they think they can fix. If we had a full rotation and bullpen then it would only make sense on a minor league deal but as of right now we're looking at Rodriguez for who knows how many innings, Hall for who knows many innings, Kremer, Bradish, and Voth as the likely starters to begin the season. The bullpen has some openings too.

They claimed Voth and his 10.13era in Washington and turned him into a 3.04era in 22 Baltimore appearances. Perez, Lyles, etc. are all success stories too. I'm not saying Archer or any other guy they sign for a few million is the answer to the rotation and all will pan out or anything but to freak out and act like the team is doomed because they might sign someone like this is a bit over the top IMO.

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, tabletop said:

What is so bad about Chris Archer? Nothing wrong with adding someone like Archer if you think you can fix them. He was always pretty solid in Tampa Bay and then seemed to really fall off after the trade to Pittsburgh. Every team, even the 100+ win teams like Houston and LAD, are always signing / trading / claiming guys for cheap that they think they can fix. If we had a full rotation and bullpen then it would only make sense on a minor league deal but as of right now we're looking at Rodriguez for who knows how many innings, Hall for who knows many innings, Kremer, Bradish, and Voth as the likely starters to begin the season. The bullpen has some openings too.

They claimed Voth and his 10.13era in Washington and turned him into a 3.04era in 22 Baltimore appearances. Perez, Lyles, etc. are all success stories too. I'm not saying Archer or any other guy they sign for a few million is the answer to the rotation and all will pan out or anything but to freak out and act like the team is doomed because they might sign someone like this is a bit over the top IMO.

They had already those guys, why do they need more?

You need better players..real difference makers.  Archer isn’t good, isn’t reliable and hasn’t been for a while.  
 

If the Os wee desperate for back end arms, I could see taking the chance.  They aren’t and roster spots matter.  
 

It would be a poor signing on every level imaginable.

[Can_of_corn]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-much-should-we-believe-in-dansby-swanson/

[sevastras]

I dont see anything wrong with signing Archer.  If he makes the team out of spring training he has either fixed something and improved or there are injuries and no other options.  If he stinks or the other options are better, then just cut him.  No reason to get upset about an inconsequential move (if it actually did take place) unless that is the only addition to the pitching this off season.  If that were the case, then you could get upset over it.  And as far as the roster spot is concerned, there is room.

It is all mental masturbation until a more reliable source says something anyways.

[tabletop]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

They had already those guys, why do they need more?

You need better players..real difference makers.  Archer isn’t good, isn’t reliable and hasn’t been for a while.  
 

If the Os wee desperate for back end arms, I could see taking the chance.  They aren’t and roster spots matter.  
 

It would be a poor signing on every level imaginable.

I agree they already have multiple back end starters I guess I just don't understand the harm in adding one more to the mix. The more they have the better chance someone works out. If they can turn Lyles, Voth, Watkins, etc. into serviceable starters is it really that crazy to think they might see something to lead them to believe they can turn him back into the 3.71era guy he was in Tampa Bay? Even in 2021 in his 5 starts in Tampa Bay his era was 3.63 while striking out over a batter per inning.