Why isn't Ortiz in Baltimore instead of Mateo?

[CaptainRedbeard]

It’s hard to get all 3 bench players (excluding the backup C) regular ABs. If Mateo were used more like Ryan McKenna pre-Mullins injury, where he is coming in for defense and pinch running with very few ABs by only sporadically getting starts against LHP, that’s a pretty ideal fit as the 3rd bench player if he actually plays a quality CF.

There is also value in having a base stealer of Mateo’s quality as a pinch runner in the postseason, where you essentially have a free roster spot by carrying one less pitcher.

I think Mateo is hanging around because they want him in the playoffs and envision him as the McKenna-esque third bench player next year. If he can play CF he’s more valuable than McKenna himself (or another similar player) given his base stealing prowess and ability to also play SS. Ortiz would then take Frazier’s roster spot and playing time next year.  

The problems are (1) Mateo is playing more than he should now and (2) Ortiz arguably already should be taking Frazier’s roster spot and playing time.

[Pat Kelly]

40 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I have been saying this for a while and the Elias press conference before the deadline was the clincher. The focus is completely on the postseason roster and Mateo’s speed is a huge asset in the postseason, at least potentially.

That is what this is all about. They don’t feel they need Ortiz to help them get into the playoffs. It’s all about winning in October.

So, for Ortiz to be here, they have to believe that Ortiz gives them a better chance to win over one of Urias, Frazier or a Westburg.

Yes this is completely the point.   I would prefer Urias to be that swing guy -  you could put Ortiz at SS, GH at 3rd and JW/AF at 2B, Urias subbing at 3B/SS.  But when they run the analytical model pretty sure Mateo speed probably equates to a win or two more in post season along with Frazier LHB PH late in game, Urias key AB or defensive play.  Ortiz is depth or luxury at this point. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, scottbbfm said:

In the regular season, doesn’t really matter.  But there are a lot of times you need a stolen base in the playoffs.  A lot.  Rosters expand to 28 in less than a month - i don’t think it’s that big of a deal to “waste” a spot for a few more weeks to provide that optionality in October.  

Is there tho?

I don't think it comes up as often as you do.  Keep in mind not only do you need a stolen base you need to have a situation in which you can replace the baserunner with Mateo and not hurt your chances more than the value of the stolen base.  You aren't going to run for Adley in the third for instance.

[2001OriolesFan]

I think the major reason for keeping Mateo is that he is another UNiQUE weapon for the O's to use.  We can use him as a pinch rurnner in a low run ballgame, and  he can steal second.  He can be a pinch runner on 1st base and unsettle many pitchers who become distracted by him, pitch poorer, change their windup, throw pitchouts and have him get into their heads. ... In extra inning games you can stick him in as the ghost runner and on a big windup, left handed pitcher, he should be on third base in a jifffy.   Just having him on the bench can lead to the other team changing their relief pitching arrangements. Getting the other team into various mistakes by overthinking is a hidden value.  ...  Nope he has a place on this roster.

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[forphase1]

12 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

It’s hard to get all 3 bench players (excluding the backup C) regular ABs. If Mateo were used more like Ryan McKenna pre-Mullins injury, where he is coming in for defense and pinch running with very few ABs by only sporadically getting starts against LHP, that’s a pretty ideal fit as the 3rd bench player if he actually plays a quality CF.

There is also value in having a base stealer of Mateo’s quality as a pinch runner in the postseason, where you essentially have a free roster spot by carrying one less pitcher.

I think Mateo is hanging around because they want him in the playoffs and envision him as the McKenna-esque third bench player next year. If he can play CF he’s more valuable than McKenna himself (or another similar player) given his base stealing prowess and ability to also play SS. Ortiz would then take Frazier’s roster spot and playing time next year.  

The problems are (1) Mateo is playing more than he should now and (2) Ortiz arguably already should be taking Frazier’s roster spot and playing time.

As you said,  the amount he's playing is the problem.  If they'd use him solely as a punch runner/emergency replacement then that's one thing.   But they've got it in their head he needs to actually start way too often.   He shouldn't be starting but in emergencies, and we certainly shouldn't be inventing new ways to get him starts like starting him in CF.  His bat since May is downright embarrassing and his defense is not nearly as good as last year,  and appears to be rusting with further lack of playing time.   He appears to be one of those guys who needs to play regularly to keep 'sharp', but he's not good enough to warrant playing regularly.  It's certainly a dilemma with a simple solution, but one the Os refuse to make. 

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is there tho?

I don't think it comes up as often as you do.  Keep in mind not only do you need a stolen base you need to have a situation in which you can replace the baserunner with Mateo and not hurt your chances more than the value of the stolen base.  You aren't going to run for Adley in the third for instance.

I think the situation will come up..if the Os advance. It may not come up in any given series and if they are one and done, that obviously could mean they never use him.

But even if the situation comes up, is that justification for keeping him?

[orioles22]

11 minutes ago, 2001OriolesFan said:

I think the major reason for keeping Mateo is that he is another UNiQUE weapon for the O's to use.  We can use him as a pinch rurnner in a low run ballgame, and  he can steal second.  He can be a pinch runner on 1st base and unsettle many pitchers who become distracted by him, pitch poorer, change their windup, throw pitchouts and have him get into their heads. ... In extra inning games you can stick him in as the ghost runner and on a big windup, left handed pitcher, he should be on third base in a jifffy.   Just having him on the bench can lead to the other team changing their relief pitching arrangements. Getting the other team into various mistakes by overthinking is a hidden value.  ...  Nope he has a place on this roster.

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I've been a big Mateo fan, but this is giving him way too much credit. He's a good base stealer, but he's not Lou Brock or Rickey Henderson. I don't feel that good about him stealing third in extra-inning games for instance. I think Ortiz can use regular reps at Norfolk, but it's time to move on after that.

 

[2001OriolesFan]

48 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think the situation will come up..if the Os advance. It may not come up in any given series and if they are one and done, that obviously could mean they never use him.

But even if the situation comes up, is that justification for keeping him?

Well getting Mateo back to familiar with center field DOES give the O's more ways to get him in as a pinch runner and then into the field.   People sometimes forget that if Mateo pinch runs for somebody, Mateo does NOT have to replace that person's position in the field, he has to replace that person's position in the batting order.  So if Mateo goes in to pinch run for the first baseman, you might [1] move Santander from RF to 1st base, [2] move McKenna CF to RG, and [3] put Mateo in CF.

 

[Sports Guy]

45 minutes ago, 2001OriolesFan said:

Well getting Mateo back to familiar with center field DOES give the O's more ways to get him in as a pinch runner and then into the field.   People sometimes forget that if Mateo pinch runs for somebody, Mateo does NOT have to replace that person's position in the field, he has to replace that person's position in the batting order.  So if Mateo goes in to pinch run for the first baseman, you might [1] move Santander from RF to 1st base, [2] move McKenna CF to RG, and [3] put Mateo in CF.

 

At no point are they taking Mullins out for Mateo.

 

[scottbbfm]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is there tho?

I don't think it comes up as often as you do.  Keep in mind not only do you need a stolen base you need to have a situation in which you can replace the baserunner with Mateo and not hurt your chances more than the value of the stolen base.  You aren't going to run for Adley in the third for instance.

Of course you aren’t going to run for adley…or anyone in the third.  But some of the most famous playoff moments in history involved stolen bases. If anything, what the team lacked in 2014 should provide some consideration on why team speed is important.

And I’m no fan of Mateo - he has completely underwhelmed at SS this year. But we’ve gotten this far with him - might as well stick it out for a couple more weeks.  He rounds out the teams’ skill set. Ortiz just duplicates what we already have.  

[Bahama O's Fan]

2 hours ago, 2001OriolesFan said:

I think the major reason for keeping Mateo is that he is another UNiQUE weapon for the O's to use.  We can use him as a pinch rurnner in a low run ballgame, and  he can steal second.  He can be a pinch runner on 1st base and unsettle many pitchers who become distracted by him, pitch poorer, change their windup, throw pitchouts and have him get into their heads. ... In extra inning games you can stick him in as the ghost runner and on a big windup, left handed pitcher, he should be on third base in a jifffy.   Just having him on the bench can lead to the other team changing their relief pitching arrangements. Getting the other team into various mistakes by overthinking is a hidden value.  ...  Nope he has a place on this roster.

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That's exactly what I am thinking too. It is going to be interesting to see how Hyde manages a lineup in the postseason. Does he try to get everyone in like he is doing now or just sticks to one basic lineup? Does he platoon alot? 

[waroriole]

2 hours ago, Pat Kelly said:

Yes this is completely the point.   I would prefer Urias to be that swing guy -  you could put Ortiz at SS, GH at 3rd and JW/AF at 2B, Urias subbing at 3B/SS.  But when they run the analytical model pretty sure Mateo speed probably equates to a win or two more in post season along with Frazier LHB PH late in game, Urias key AB or defensive play.  Ortiz is depth or luxury at this point. 

A PR equates to 1-2 more wins in the playoffs????

[seak05]

I assume that the extra september roster spots (two) will probably go to pitchers. But I wonder if one goes to Ortiz. 

[Number5]

7 hours ago, seak05 said:

I assume that the extra september roster spots (two) will probably go to pitchers. But I wonder if one goes to Ortiz. 

I think the roster limit for pitchers only goes up by one.  A lot of teams tend to bring up 1 pitcher and a 3rd catcher.

[G54377]

Mateo can be our third catcher, we are already making up positions for him to keep him on the team.