Guardians Series

[Mooreisbetter27]

42 minutes ago, Malike said:

According to MLB.com Cleveland has already been eliminated from the WC round. Boston's elimination number is 1, and they aren't a winning team. I don't think I'd say they are fighting tooth and nail for a playoff spot. Toronto clearly is. Pretty sure they aren't winning the division (Cleveland), the division number is 1 with MIN playing LAA tomorrow.

Bleacher Report reported yesterday that the Red Sox were eliminated from playoff contention after their loss to the Rangers and the Blue Jays win against the Yankees.  But looking at it, I think you're right and their number is 1.  Don't know why it's being reported as officially eliminated in a few places.  

They can't catch the Blue Jays whi have 10 games left and they are 11 back in the loss column but maybe they hold some sort of tie breaker over either Texas or Mariners.  It must be a convoluted tie breaker because they're 3-3 against both.  One of those teams would need to lose all 10 of their games to match Red Sox loss total currently.  

Edit: SteveA is right.  This is what I get for trying to figure this out when I'm at work and phones are ringing haha.  

Edited September 21, 2023 by Mooreisbetter27

[SteveA]

3 minutes ago, Mooreisbetter27 said:

Bleacher Report reported yesterday that the Red Sox were eliminated from playoff contention after their loss to the Rangers and the Blue Jays win against the Yankees.  But looking at it, I think you're right and their number is 1.  Don't know why it's being reported as officially eliminated in a few places.  

With 78 losses, Boston would max out at 84-78.

That isn't good enough to catch Tampa or Toronto.

Seattle and Texas play each other 7 times so at least one of those teams will win 88, and Boston can't catch that team.  

And Boston can't catch Houston, who has 85 wins.

So Boston is eliminated.   

[Idaho_OriolesFan]

Someone posted this on Facebook - not quiet certain why ESPN would give the prediction to to CLE

 

[dystopia]

5 minutes ago, Idaho_OriolesFan said:

Someone posted this on Facebook - not quiet certain why ESPN would give the prediction to to CLE

 

Because the O’s suck, remember? Fangraphs said so. 

[Gunnar]

I look at those ESPN predictions from time to time (not every day) and I don't recall ever seeing the Orioles favored tbh

[Getz]

Good chance to start the series off with the right foot tonight with Grayson on the mound.

[btdart20]

SigBot > Fangraph > ..... > ESPN

[Moose Milligan]

Really curious to see how Grayson performs tonight coming off that last start where he shoved for 8 innings.  

[Uli2001]

5 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I feel that Cleveland hasn't been a good matchup for us over the past few years.  This series makes me a bit nervous.  I don't want to settle for a split.

One game at a time. Win today and go from there.

[Uli2001]

1 hour ago, dystopia said:

Because the O’s suck, remember? Fangraphs said so. 

That's ESPN Analytics, the O's have been underdogs most of the time this season.

[Uli2001]

I don't mind, I think it's good bulletin board material. I suspect that the players are aware of such things. It helps keep the focus.

[Hallas]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Really curious to see how Grayson performs tonight coming off that last start where he shoved for 8 innings.  

Are you curious to see if he's tired or because you're wondering if he's going to have a mental letdown?  His pitch load was pretty low despite going 8 innings so I doubt fatigue will be an issue.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Hallas said:

Are you curious to see if he's tired or because you're wondering if he's going to have a mental letdown?  His pitch load was pretty low despite going 8 innings so I doubt fatigue will be an issue.

Curious to see from a stamina perspective because he's well above any amount of innings pitched in his career between AAA and Baltimore this year.   He's at 151.2. The next highest total in his professional career is 103, that was 2021.  Pitch load doesn't have much to do with it at this point.

I'm not qualified enough to know when players are having mental letdowns, but a lot of other posters seem to be.

[Malike]

Don't sleep on Cleveland. Texas dropped 36 runs on the Jays in a 4-game series and then scored 6 runs in the next three getting swept by Cleveland. Of course, they allowed 4 runs per game vs. KC getting swept themselves, but one thing they can do is cool off a good offense. Texas has scored 841 runs this season.

[larrytt]

5 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

They do have a high probability of ending up as a split. 

In case anyone's interested in the probability, in a 4-game series, assuming each game is 50-50 (not reality, of course, but close enough), there are 16 possible outcomes, leading to five scenarios:
4-0: 1 chance in 16 (6.25%)
3-1: 4 chances in 16 (25%)
2-2: 6 chances in 16 (37.5%)
1-3: 4 chances in 16 (25%)
0-4: 1 chance in 16 (6.25%)

Edited September 21, 2023 by larrytt