Dylan Cease

[RZNJ]

Luis Robert scares me.  Yes, he could be great.  He’s only 26 and had a big year offensively and defensively.   His statcast numbers are great and terrible.  I was surprised to see his average exit velocity as low as it was.  His chase and whiff percentages are very poor.  The 2023 season was his career season to this point.  In his career season he walked 30 times and struck out 172 times.  They say defense peaks early.  Robert is a big guy.  Did he just have a career year defensively as well?  This definitely looks like buying at peak value.

On the other hand, his contract isn’t going to kill you and he could be a bargain.   I’ll cop out and say it depends on the package but I certainly am not hot to get Robert.

[waroriole]

32 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Luis Robert scares me.  Yes, he could be great.  He’s only 26 and had a big year offensively and defensively.   His statcast numbers are great and terrible.  I was surprised to see his average exit velocity as low as it was.  His chase and whiff percentages are very poor.  The 2023 season was his career season to this point.  In his career season he walked 30 times and struck out 172 times.  They say defense peaks early.  Robert is a big guy.  Did he just have a career year defensively as well?  This definitely looks like buying at peak value.

On the other hand, his contract isn’t going to kill you and he could be a bargain.   I’ll cop out and say it depends on the package but I certainly am not hot to get Robert.

Agreed. I don’t see why we should buy high on Robert. He had a career year last year. He usually doesn’t stay healthy. He makes horrible swing decisions. And strikes out a lot. The contract would be a reason to trade for him, but I think he’ll cost more than I’m comfortable trading. 

[George Zuverink]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Just more evidence that Sports Guy doesn’t know what he’s talking about.  

Now there’s a unicorn, an outright Frobby slam. 

[oriole]

Considering they’re only likely to go in on one SP with a guaranteed spot in the rotation…I’d hate to think Cease would be the guy. He’s gonna have a high cost and to be honest, I’d rather keep Cowser or Kjerstad or whoever it takes to get him.

If they can swing something like a trade involving Norby and Beavers then sure…but I don’t wanna see the top guys go for a couple years of an okay starting pitcher. Aim higher if that’s the case.

[maybenxtyr]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I preferred a cheap model at the time.

But hating on the Zune had nothing to do with how it functioned. 

I've heard that you can buy a "vintage" iPod from Urban Outfitters now for like $300+. The weird part is, you can get them from eBay for next to nothing. I've never owned an Apple product myself.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I've heard that you can buy a "vintage" iPod from Urban Outfitters now for like $300+. The weird part is, you can get them from eBay for next to nothing. I've never owned an Apple product myself.

I just checked and back in 2007 Urban Outfitters had an exclusive Zune they sold. 

To some degree Apple is a lifestyle brand.

Edited November 4, 2023 by Can_of_corn

[G54377]

I'd trust that if the Os go after Cease they believe they can tune him to max his stuff. Maybe the White Sox cave and give him up for less than the moon they wanted at the deadline.

[Jagwar]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Just more evidence that Sports Guy doesn’t know what he’s talking about.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

I've heard that you can buy a "vintage" iPod from Urban Outfitters now for like $300+. The weird part is, you can get them from eBay for next to nothing. I've never owned an Apple product myself.

I've got to find some out-of-date product and figure out a way to get hipsters to want to buy it.

https://www.businessinsider.com/vintage-ipod-sold-out-urban-outfitters-2023-10

Quote

That specific iPod model was initially launched by Apple in 2007 and retailed for about $249 at the time. More than 15 years later, it was priced at $349 on Urban Outfitters, according to Fast Company.

 

[Can_of_corn]

21 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I've got to find some out-of-date product and figure out a way to get hipsters to want to buy it.

https://www.businessinsider.com/vintage-ipod-sold-out-urban-outfitters-2023-10

 

Factoring in Inflation that's actually a slight discount.

[Jim'sKid26]

22 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

2022 is what drives his value. If you take that year away, you don’t consider giving up Cowser and may not even give up a top 100 type guy.

But 2022 did happen and it shows his potential, so it makes him intriguing.

So with that said, what was the difference between 2022 and 2023? A quick look at Baseball Savant #s might shed a little light. Here are a few things I see:

1) His curveball usage was up only slightly in 2023 (15.2%-13.9%) but he threw it much more to RHB in 2023 (211-159) and he got crushed for it. BA was up (.298-.253), HR were up (4-1), SLG was up (.538-.391) year over year.  So maybe throw the curveball less? Fix the shape of the CB? Don't throw it to RHBs?

2) 4SFB usage was up in 2023 (43.2%-39.8%). Average velocity was down (95.6 - 96.8) While the HRs were the same (8), he gave up more hits (75-54), higher BA (.273-.240), higher SLG (.436-.391), higher exit velocity (90.3-88.4) and lower whiff% (20.5-23.2). So maybe throw fewer 4SFB? Throw them higher in the zone?

3) The 2022 SL was a completely different pitch than the 2023 version. He threw it more (42.9%-38.6%), it was over 1 mph harder (87.4 -86.3), and it spun more (2833 - 2795). It was also more effective, BA (.128-.216), SLG (.209-.339) and Exit veto (83.8-88.9) all favor the 2022 version. Ironically the HR allowed (7) and whiff% (43.3) were identical.  So maybe throw the SL more. Go back and look at 2022 film to see if he can recapture the better mechanics of 2022 to regain velocity and spin.

Finally, he rarely throws a CH (3%) but it's an effective pitch. In fact, (SSS alert!) the 2023 version was very effective, BA (.111), SLG (.111) EV ( 77 mph). Maybe throw the CH more? Throw it instead of the CB to RHB?

Additionally, he did very rarely throw a sinker in 2022. So he can throw it. We know that Bradish made a transition away from the 4SFB to the sinker and found impressive results. Does a sinker give him another pitch to RH batters? Does it make his SL to RHB even more effective? If he uses the CH more and the CB less can a sinker be an effective 4th pitch?

Is he "fixable?" Your guess is as good as mine. I do think he's an attractive piece to get back in a trade but it's going to matter what the prospect cost would be. 

[Roll Tide]

7 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

Cease makes sense if they believe his 2022 season was an outlier, but why would the White Sox trade Robert (one of their few young cornerstones)?

Well the deal is a haul and fixes a number of holes. Honestly, if I’m the Orioles I’d keep Kremer and offer the 2 minor league guys. That gives them 2 future starter candidates. However, looking at their top 30 prospects 10 out of 15 are pitchers. So they may value position prospects higher. They have Tatum at AA that’s a good CF prospect and he swiped 47 bases. So maybe they’d be happy with a that deal or a deal that has more prospects and forget guys like Mountcastle.

[Bemorewins]

When evaluating a trade for Dylan Cease you have to ask yourself which Cease am I getting? The guy from 2021? 22? or 23? While he shared some vary good common denominators in each of the last 3 seasons (at least 32 starts, at least 165 innings pitched, and over 200 strikeouts in each of those years) some of the other results were vastly different. Is he the Cy Young pitcher that he was 2 seasons ago or the very mediocre pitcher that he was this year? Or somewhere in between like he was in 2021? Also the walk rate was a little high in each of the last 3 years, but is trending down in the right direction.

I'm confident that pitching in the new cavernous Camden Yards for half of his starts would be a boast and being able to play behind a better infield defense would probably aid him too. But by how much? ... I guess that it is something that Elias would need to assess when trying to figure out his value?

Early in the season I was very much on-board that "add Dylan Cease by trade train" not I am sort of indifferent. He would obviously be an upgrade for our rotation and give us more "dependability". But I really don't care if we add via trade or FA or (hopefully both), I just want the org to add talent so that we can have a better shot to stand tall next Fall.

[Bemorewins]

On 11/3/2023 at 4:08 PM, Roll Tide said:

I’d offer one of Cowser/Ortiz/Norby and Stowers.

A guy who won a Cy Young in the last two years for 1 possible legit prospect and a throw-in (I highly doubt the White Sox would be clamoring for the likes of Stowers... but who knows?) Either way, that seems like a very low ball offer if I'm looking at things from a CHI SOX perspective. If the rumors are true that they asked for Holliday at the deadline, that would be an awfully steep fall to end up with the package that you are suggesting. At this point can Joey Ortiz even highlight a trade? He's already 25 has not Major success/track record AND I believe the entire industry is going to start adjusting the evaluation of many of our positional prospects' offensive numbers (especially at AAA) given how little of it we saw carry over to the Big club. Westburg went from leading his league with 17 homers before the end of June and hit all of TWO for us the second half of the season. Stowers didn't even look competitive at the plate in his brief stint in the Majors this year after killing it in the Minors. I think we at least have to consider that other teams will have some apprehension about offensive carry over and may not be comfortable "settling" for one or two prospects given what we have seen?

[Sports Guy]

11 hours ago, waroriole said:

Agreed. I don’t see why we should buy high on Robert. He had a career year last year. He usually doesn’t stay healthy. He makes horrible swing decisions. And strikes out a lot. The contract would be a reason to trade for him, but I think he’ll cost more than I’m comfortable trading. 

At some point, we are going to need to take some big swings. This ownership isn’t going to take big swings with money. Hell, we don’t even know if they will extend our own guys.

Robert is a risk, no doubt..as is any acquisition or any non acquisition always is.

But he is an elite talent that is a good age and has a great contract..and he can play a premium position at a high level.

He’s definitely not a slam dunk but there are a lot of reasons why he’s a very good risk for this org to take.

Edited November 5, 2023 by Sports Guy