Go get ________________________________

[Orioles0615]

Although its far away, if they wait on surgery for Bradish I just realized how very little pitching we will have for 2025 since Means and Burnes are free agents 

[wildbillhiccup]

8 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

For a minute let's set aside your political opinions.

The Japanese Central League has six teams. Which means they had roughly 30 or 40 starting pitchers. Just 26 pitched 100 innings. Bauer's ranking among those pitchers:

ERA (min 100 IP): 13th
IP: 16th
H/9: 14th
HR/9: 21st
BB/9: 12th
K/9: 2nd
K/BB: 7th

Summing that up, he was a 2nd or 3rd starter in a league that sits somewhere between AAA and the Majors. And he'll come with a media circus and a PR hit.

People look at his 2.76 ERA and think "oohh.. he's great". But the Central League had a 3.15 ERA. Total runs allowed were 3.5/game, or fewer than all but two MLB seasons in 150 years of history. Last year Japan was an epic pitching environment.

The average pitcher in a AAAA league had a 3.15 ERA. 2.76 is just a smidge better than average there. His ERA+ was 114 in a lesser league. Relative to his league his ERA was essentially the same as Tyler Wells or Bryan Baker, but the quality of competition was lower.

On the Yokohama Bay Stars, a 3rd place team, 74-66, 12 games out of first, he was their 3rd starter.

So, how far out on a limb do you want to go for that?
 

I very much appreciate this breakdown. I've tried to make a similar point before, but you did a much better job. I'd also like point out that Bauer struggled so much in Japan early on that he was actually demoted to the minors for a short period of time. When you take everything you shared into consideration as well as the fact that it's possible a big part of his MLB success was due to him admitted use of a foreign substance to increase his spin rate it certainly doesn't seem like the juice is worth the squeeze. And your Tyler Wells example really hammers the point home. Folks seems to be justifying the potential media circus/PR implications because they think we'd be getting a potential Cy Young candidate for free when the reality is that the more likely outcome is that Trevor Bauer is a league average or slightly above average pitcher. For context the league average ERA for starting pitchers last season was 4.62.  Can you imagine taking on that kind of baggage and potentially disrupting your clubhouse and alienating your fan base for a player who projected to have an ERA in the mid 4's? Regardless of what folks think about his character or actions the juice hardly seems worth the squeeze, which is the reason why not a single MLB team has expressed any interest in signing him up this point. 

[DrungoHazewood]

Circling back around, the NPB numbers I posted aren't a crystal ball that says 100% Bauer is going to be a mediocre starter the majors. But, they also don't point to him being a great pitcher. There are a lot of pitchers in the world, most of them don't have 1/10th the baggage and risk Bauer does. I just don't think it's worth it. I'd rather the Orioles not be that organization who prioritizes winning over being decent.

Oh, but Drungo, what about Albert Belle? What about Delmon Young?! Why don't we leave that stuff in the past and try to be better. We have an exciting, young team with a ton of talent and a great clubhouse. No reason to bring a controversial sideshow in to that.

[joelala]

46 minutes ago, MDS29 said:

LOL it's not a political position. Evolutionary psychologists argue that we’re naturally hardwired to care about women’s suffering more because “eggs are expensive, sperm is cheap.” There's certainly a lot of truth to that, though I'm sure if one considers how most cultures throughout history have treated women, and because it seems to assume a mechanism based in group selection. Whether or not the tendency reflects a rule of human nature, it is unquestionably true that the modern west prioritizes female well-being, and that's a good thing.

Look your points probably do point to some regression for Bauer since he last pitched in the MLB. I'm not really arguing that, but I also think he'd come very cheap (read easy to get rid of if he is a detrimental club-house presence) and frankly I still think his K/9 numbers point to more long-term run prevention when compared to Kremer (who I like but is not really more than a 5th starter), Wells (again, I like, but seems to be more a bullpen piece as he wears down), and Irvin (who is an AAAA guy).

Bradish is out for the year in all likelihood. John Means is on the brink of injuries ending his career as an effective MLB Pitcher.

You have Burnes, G-Rod (injury prone?), Kremer, Irvin, Wells......baking in regression from last year, going to be hard to repeat as AL East champs without MLB proven arms imo.
 

Turn the Ben Shapiro podcast down, I can’t hear you. 

[sportsfan8703]

What about a guy like Matthew Boyd?  We bring him in and say we’re going to let you compete with Irvin for the 5th SP spot, but you’re likely to be used at our #6 SP and our #3 LH RP. 

Kind of like a poor man’s James Paxton. He backfills in what we thought Irvin’s role would be. We need a #6 SP. He can eat up multi inning outings in MR to spare the pen as well. Or we ride with Bruce Zimmerman in this role. 

Edited February 16 by sportsfan8703

[G54377]

I really think Ryu is the best option. He'll be nearly 2 years removed from TJ surgery at the start of the season. Career 3.27 ERA. Familiar with AL East. Lefty. Can probably be had for a one year deal given age/injury? I think we need to accept the fact that we are not paying for either Montgomery or Snell.

[wildbillhiccup]

While we discuss / think about what SP we should trade or sign as a FA I'm just going to drop this collection Edward Cabrera's nasty change-ups in your feed. 

 

 

[dystopia]

On 2/16/2024 at 11:46 AM, G54377 said:

I really think Ryu is the best option. He'll be nearly 2 years removed from TJ surgery at the start of the season. Career 3.27 ERA. Familiar with AL East. Lefty. Can probably be had for a one year deal given age/injury? I think we need to accept the fact that we are not paying for either Montgomery or Snell.

I agree completely. 

[G54377]

Burnes

Rodriguez

Kremer

Ryu

Wells/Irvin

 

To start the season that is perfectly acceptable until we get Means and/or Bradish back. If Means is looking at the end of April to be back, you probably only need 3 starts from Wells/Irvin to get there. 

[OriolesMagic83]

On 2/16/2024 at 11:46 AM, G54377 said:

I really think Ryu is the best option. He'll be nearly 2 years removed from TJ surgery at the start of the season. Career 3.27 ERA. Familiar with AL East. Lefty. Can probably be had for a one year deal given age/injury? I think we need to accept the fact that we are not paying for either Montgomery or Snell.

What kind of deal is Ryu rumored to be looking for?  It seems like the best option for the O's.  Something like 1 yr/10-12 mill w/ some incentives and an option.  (Burnes and Means likely won't be here in 2025 so need another starter anyway).

[dystopia]

8 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

What kind of deal is Ryu rumored to be looking for?  It seems like the best option for the O's.  Something like 1 yr/10-12 mill w/ some incentives and an option.  (Burnes and Means likely won't be here in 2025 so need another starter anyway).

If that’s what Ryu was looking for I imagine he’d be signed by now. 
 

 

[Sports Guy]

You have to wonder how much throwing a FA has been doing.  How ready are they? Would they be ready to start the year? At this point, if you are going to sign a FA, it needs to be soon.

[Fiver6565]

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You have to wonder how much throwing a FA has been doing.  How ready are they? Would they be ready to start the year? At this point, if you are going to sign a FA, it needs to be soon.

I was thinking the same thing. Not sure signing a FA at this point puts them on any better a path for Opening Day than Means is already on. 

[Jagwar]

43 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You have to wonder how much throwing a FA has been doing.  How ready are they? Would they be ready to start the year? At this point, if you are going to sign a FA, it needs to be soon.

I'm guessing that they were in some sort of throwing and exercise program that a private firm ran for them. And for someone like Snell or Montgomery, who have been in the big leagues for a while, they should have a pretty good idea where they should be and what they should be doing at this point of Spring Training. 

[TommyPickles]

I like Ryu too. Been thinking he would make sense all off-season. I wonder if he wants to keep pitching in the US, though. Hasn’t been much noise from his camp.

Bauer seems like a scumbag. I’ll pass.

Some weird takes in this thread about that situation. As a man myself, I think it’s pretty clear that “society’s gender double standards” affect women much more harshly than men. Of course there are issues that affect men worse, but pretending we’re the victims of modern society and culture is an embarrassing take.