Colton Cowser 2024

[Aristotelian]

Cowser may need to go back to a platoon role for a while. Unfortunately he is not a natural platoon complement to Mullins as they both suck vs LHP. Where's Ryan McKenna when you need him? Hopefully Mullins heats up again and Cowser can platoon with Hays in a corner spot. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, LGOrioles said:

I agree that his bat has been up and down but it would be hard to classify his season to date as anything other than tremendous.

His defense has been so good that’s he’s been worth 2.1 WAR in 216 PA’s. Last year, Gunnar was worth 4.7 WAR in 622 PA’s. Pro rate Cowser’s season so far to 622 PA’s and that comes out to 6 WAR. That’s not saying he will keep up this pace the whole year, but if he hits close to league average and keeps up his defense, he will likely be a 4 WAR player. I don’t think anyone expected that coming into the season.

You are choosing to use fWAR, which you’re entitled to do.  rWAR has him at 1.2, on pace for 2.9.  They had Gunnar at 6.2, more than twice as valuable.  

But anyway, that’s a little beside the point.  My main point is that Cowser’s offensive numbers need to stabilize.  He was great for the first month, and very bad since then.   The overall numbers are still pretty good but have been trending the wrong direction for a long while.  That’s why I don’t consider his season tremendous.  

One last thing: I really like Cowser’s defense, but I think OAA (and therefore fWAR) overrates him.  Don’t get me wrong - I’ve said he may be a GG candidate if he plays this well defensively all year.  But OAA has him higher than any other defensive metric and I think they’re a little overboard.  JMO.


 

[dystopia]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You are choosing to use fWAR, which you’re entitled to do.  rWAR has him at 1.2, on pace for 2.9.  They had Gunnar at 6.2, more than twice as valuable.  

But anyway, that’s a little beside the point.  My main point is that Cowser’s offensive numbers need to stabilize.  He was great for the first month, and very bad since then.   The overall numbers are still pretty good but have been trending the wrong direction for a long while.  That’s why I don’t consider his season tremendous.  

One last thing: I really like Cowser’s defense, but I think OAA (and therefore fWAR) overrates him.  Don’t get me wrong - I’ve said he may be a GG candidate if he plays this well defensively all year.  But OAA has him higher than any other defensive metric and I think they’re a little overboard.  JMO.


 

Isn’t fWAR the best WAR for position players?

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, dystopia said:

Isn’t fWAR the best WAR for position players?

SG would tell you so. I don’t think either one is perfect, but when they’re out of line I generally assume the truth is in between.  The biggest difference between them is the fielding metrics they use.  Not the only difference. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

18 hours ago, banks703 said:

Baseball is a game of adjustments. Defining who a player is after 80 or so games gives us the Justin Turners and Jose Bautistas of the world. It’s still very early in his career. Most will suggest 1500 ABs gives an idea of who a hitter is at the MLB level. 

The league adjusted to him and in turn, he will adjust or he will not adjust. That is who he is as a hitter right now. No more and no less. He could go on another burner and prove to be a streaky hitter like Mountcastle and to a lesser extent Ant but it’s still way too early to know who he is as a hitter. I keep comparing him to Charlie Blackmon. I see that career arc in his future. I’ll argue that of the current rostered position players, maybe only Gunnar and Adley (and throw in Jorge based on pure talent) have more complete talent than does Cowser.

But does he adjust to how he’s been pitched the last month plus? That’s the question. I suppose we’ll know at the end of the season. I would keep running him out there to see if he can grow that 1.9 WAR (fangraphs) that he’s accumulated the first 66 games. Because right now he’s 5th in WAR for them. If he’s a 4 Win Player, he’s quite a bit better than good but flawed. He’d be a damn good player.

There were only 54 guys who had a WAR of 4 or better last year. It’d be pretty damn good if that’s who CC is as a player. 

The issues that Cowser has at the major league level with hitting lefties and offspeed are the same issues he had in the minors. Sure, he’s going to continue to adjust, and like I said he’s a young player so they should keep giving him opportunities, especially while they don’t have a righty CF they like.

But we can’t pretend like the flaws in Cowser’s game are a new thing that we can expect him to correct for. Maybe he can make some improvements on offspeed, but he’s very likely to still do poorly on those. I think he has a better chance of improving against lefties because of the Gunnar/Holliday thing of just not seeing many good lefties in the minors, but lefty sliders/sweepers are killer on him the same way righty changeup/splitters are. The flip side is he’s also capable of doing what he did last night - doing damage on righty fastballs, even from a guys who have a really good one.

Cowser’s defensive metrics right now are really elite and not something you should pro-rate out. Even if he is an elite defender, there should be some regression. Steamer and ZiPS project him for 1.2 and 1.4 WAR in about a half season. I think it’s fair to expect him to be around a 2.5-3 WAR player going forward, even though he should finish higher than that this year on the strength of the the defensive numbers he’s already banked (and could definitely get to 4, which would be a terrific rookie season). The projections have him at about a 112 wRC+. So, a good player. But he currently has a 12th percentile whiff rate. Even with improvements there he’s still going to be flawed. 

[Rbiggs2525]

Whatever WAR you use he’s either 33rd, which second best player on a team. The other he is 179 which is 6th best player on a team. What are we talking about here. He had strikeout problems adjusting to Aberdeen before. We have a guy with elite tools in terms of speed, power and arm. His max EV is highest on the team.

[OnlyOneOriole]

8 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Whatever WAR you use he’s either 33rd, which second best player on a team. The other he is 179 which is 6th best player on a team. What are we talking about here. He had strikeout problems adjusting to Aberdeen before. We have a guy with elite tools in terms of speed, power and arm. His max EV is highest on the team.

Yeah it is blowing my mind how negative so many people here are on Cowser.  He is a rookie who has flashed elite defense, the ability to hit major league pitching very well and for extended periods, and he has made some very special and clutch plays both hitting and fielding.   Not many rookies or even 2nd and 3rd year players do that. 

Some here are acting like he should be a superstar right off the bat.  Very strange.  

[Sports Guy]

57 minutes ago, Frobby said:

SG would tell you so. I don’t think either one is perfect, but when they’re out of line I generally assume the truth is in between.  The biggest difference between them is the fielding metrics they use.  Not the only difference. 

 Common sense also tells you so.

When one WAR uses a larger set of data and a better set of data, that’s the better WAR.

The consensus for years has been fWAR is better.!

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Whatever WAR you use he’s either 33rd, which second best player on a team. The other he is 179 which is 6th best player on a team. What are we talking about here. He had strikeout problems adjusting to Aberdeen before. We have a guy with elite tools in terms of speed, power and arm. His max EV is highest on the team.

People can’t see the forest through the trees.

[Moose Milligan]

54 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

 Even with improvements there he’s still going to be flawed. 

God, I hate flawed baseball players.  They're the absolute worst.

[Hallas]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

You are choosing to use fWAR, which you’re entitled to do.  rWAR has him at 1.2, on pace for 2.9.  They had Gunnar at 6.2, more than twice as valuable.  

But anyway, that’s a little beside the point.  My main point is that Cowser’s offensive numbers need to stabilize.  He was great for the first month, and very bad since then.   The overall numbers are still pretty good but have been trending the wrong direction for a long while.  That’s why I don’t consider his season tremendous.  

One last thing: I really like Cowser’s defense, but I think OAA (and therefore fWAR) overrates him.  Don’t get me wrong - I’ve said he may be a GG candidate if he plays this well defensively all year.  But OAA has him higher than any other defensive metric and I think they’re a little overboard.  JMO.


 

Fangraphs and B-R agree on batting runs, replacement runs, and most of the minor adjustments.  The vast majority of the difference is in defense, where Cowser is +3 in DRS but +9 in OAA.

 

Fangraphs is giving him an extra 1.4 runs for baserunning, while B-R is calling him an average runner, and Fangraphs has an additional 0.5 run adjustment because I guess they think the AL is a better league.  That adds up to close to 9 runs, which is the entire difference between B-R and Fangraphs. 

 

If you split the defense and baserunning in the middle you still get a 1.6 or 1.7 win guy about 40% of the way through the season, which is basically a 4 or 4.5 win player.  That's pretty good.

Edited June 13 by Hallas

[Say O!]

Cowser should get +1 WAR boost for being team connector and keeping everyone loose (btw I’m only half kidding about this).

[OnlyOneOriole]

Sometimes I think many of you guys never played a sport in your life and are just computer nerds on reddit looking at raw stats.

 

If you can't see that CC has talent and could be a VERY good player for years to come than keep playing your video games in your parents basement. 

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

Sometimes I think many of you guys never played a sport in your life and are just computer nerds on reddit looking at raw stats.

 

If you can't see that CC has talent and could be a VERY good player for years to come than keep playing your video games in your parents basement. 

Ironic considering some of the things you are saying about Holliday.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

Sometimes I think many of you guys never played a sport in your life and are just computer nerds on reddit looking at raw stats.

 

If you can't see that CC has talent and could be a VERY good player for years to come than keep playing your video games in your parents basement. 

Why make a comment like this?  It does nothing to further the conversation.