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Who would you trade for... Uggla/Cantu?

amateurfan

By amateurfan
in Orioles Talk

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crawdad Major Leaguer

crawdad

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Right, my mistake. Also, just curious, how did you arrive at the value for Arrieta, Snyder, Britton etc.

Thought I mentioned it here somewhere . . . it is from the Victor Wang prospect regression papers. Value is associated with typical MLB performance levels for players grouped under various prospect rankings.

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TGO Hangout Grand Counsel

TGO

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Uggla's more disciplined and will hit a few more homers, and he's got a better chance to eventually be a Type A free agent, but Cantu probably makes better contact, is a little younger, and looks more athletic. Uggla's a little better, but yeah - If you have to get 1 or the other and it's just for a 3B/1B stop gap, go for whichever one costs you less in prospects.

Cantu should not be played at 3B. Ever. Uggla may have a chance of being ok there but we don't really know. I think that's big difference #1. Big difference #2 is Uggla is just a plain better hitter. Uggla gives you about a 15-20 point advantage in OBP and a 15-20 point advantage in SLG. They really aren't even that close as hitters.

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itsernst Major Leaguer Rising Star

itsernst

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Yes . . . you can talk to the agents.

Regarding Uggla . . . he is probably an average third baseman or a below average first baseman.

Not sure how much the Marlins would want. Once again using the VW:

He basically will produce about 32MM of value, while costing maybe 22MM over the next two years.

So . . . 42MM in return might be what the Marlins would expect.

Prospect wise . . . Snyder, Britton, and Erbe or Snyder and Arrieta.

No way they give up any package resembling that for someone who may only be a bridge to Josh Bell.

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byrdz Hangout Veteran Council

byrdz

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Uggla strikes out a ton:

123, 167, 171, 150

Guess it's better than grounding into DP's.

He's also far from a lefty killer for his career:

<iframe src="http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=jnKfk&output=iframe" width=550 height=150 scrolling=auto>

Report Created on <a href="http://bbref.com/">Baseball-Reference.com</a>

</iframe>

By the way, I'm hearing Boston is also interested, big surprise considering their past ties with the Marlins. They seem to love helping out the Red Sox so Uggla should be wearing a Bandwagon hat by turkey day.

.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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Thought I mentioned it here somewhere . . . it is from the Victor Wang prospect regression papers. Value is associated with typical MLB performance levels for players grouped under various prospect rankings.

Would you trade any of the players you have mentioned in this thread for Uggla?

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waroriole Hangout Grand Counsel

waroriole

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Thought I mentioned it here somewhere . . . it is from the Victor Wang prospect regression papers. Value is associated with typical MLB performance levels for players grouped under various prospect rankings.

Maybe you did, but this is all that I could find. Obviously, I have little understanding of this formula, but it seems like the minor league prospects are a little undervalued. How did you come up with 20M for Tillman?

Not sure how much they like Alonso, but using VW's methodology.

Arroyo (-4MM) + Alonso (+20MM) = 16MM price differential.

For us that would be something like Hernandez/Erbe and Britton.

Using that for the others:

Arroyo (-4MM) + Votto (+42MM) = 38MM price differential

For us that would be something like Tillman (20MM), Hernandez/Erbe, and Britton.

That is weird. Hmmm . . . that might be not taking in account price fluctuations on free market position availability. Have to think about that.

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Hank Scorpio Hangout Grand Counsel

Hank Scorpio

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SI's Jon Heyman reports 2nd/3rd Baseman Mark Derosa has been contacted by the Orioles. And by 7 other teams too. Just thought I would throw that out there.

Of course he was... he's exactly the type of guy we'd chase. Older, average, very "meh."

At least he's a type B. He'll probably be popular.

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