If you don't undestand that Buck likes Izzy at SS...

[wildcard]

First of all, I will go on record as saying I believe izzy is our starting SS next year.

But there is a difference between what I think the Orioles WILL do and what they SHOULD do.

So, i am asking you, what should the Orioles do in terms of SS? And if you think they should keep Izzy here, do you also think Millwood, Wiggy and Hendrickson should be kept(and kept in their current roles)..since they are all part of the "winning situation" as well?

How many times can you ask the same question?

The O's should explore Hardy, Barnes and anyone either that is an upgrade that does not cost a starting pitcher to acquire.

Millwood and Hendrickson should be gone and I think will be.

Wiggy may or may not be back depend on what the O's are able to pick up. I doubt Bell starts the year in the majors. That opens a spot that Wiggy may play some role in.

[SoBo]

Whelp... Buck was just on MLB radio and singing Izzys praises. So it wouldn't shock me in the least if Izzy is back next year.

[Sports Guy]

How many times can you ask the same question?

The O's should explore Hardy, Barnes and anyone either that is an upgrade that does not cost a starting pitcher to acquire.

Millwood and Hendrickson should be gone and I think will be.

Wiggy may or may not be back depend on what the O's are able to pick up. I doubt Bell starts the year in the majors. That opens a spot that Wiggy may play some role in.

But why should Millwood and Hendrickson be gone?

You have stated that Izzy is part of the winning situation..Aren't those 2 part of it as well?

And Wiggy is our starting first baseman...Shouldn't he be brought back for that same role, since he is part of our winning situation?

[Frobby]

I am not sure that trying to get to 800 runs scored will be the O's approach. If they keep 7 starters with one them in the pen (Vandy) then there may be enough competition to keep them pitching at a high level. Whether that is 3.47 or not who knows.

I have faith in Buck getting all his players to play to their potential. He ready seem to know how to push the right buttons.

The O's have scored 557 runs so far with 16 games to play. They are on pace for about 610-615 runs scored. So, the 150 runs I quoted doesn't get them to 800, only to 760-765 or so. That would be very slightly above average, which I think you need to have almost no matter how good the pitching is if you want to contend. You don't have to look any further than Seattle (3.89 ERA) or Oakland (3.59 ERA) to see that merely having good pitching doesn't get you to contention.

Now, the O's have room to improve offensively just by getting better performances from some of their own players. But they are still going to need some serious outside help. If we landed Konerko and Beltre, could I live with Izzy batting 9th? Yeah, maybe. But I'd be surprised if we land either one of those guys, much less both of them. So, we need to look hard for an offensive upgrade at SS.

[Frobby]

Whelp... Buck was just on MLB radio and singing Izzys praises. So it wouldn't shock me in the least if Izzy is back next year.

What specifically did he say? I read his comments from the press conference yesterday that were the genesis of this thread, and they were pretty specific to what occurred in the game last night, rather than general comments.

"Izzy put on a clinic tonight, just about in every phase you want to see. Bergy was the story tonight, but I've got to tell you Izzy is a close second."

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-0916,0,3570098.story

We all know Izzy is a very good defender, and I'd fully expect Buck to compliment him for it and say how good defense is important. I don't expect him to say, "Izzy is a real liability on offense and he has a bad habit of swinging at anything that moves." But it's the truth, and Buck knows that.

[Mackus]

I have zero doubt that Buck wants to upgrade at SS from Izzy to someone who isn't actually costing the Orioles games with his awful performance. Regardless of what he says publicly, I won't ever believe that he actively wants Izzy back next year unless they resign him.

[TGO]

My favorite thing about this thread is how almost every alternative is too old or getting too old. As if Cesar Izturis is aging backwards. Someone call Brad Pitt, I have a movie to sell him!

Yes, at 30 years old, Izturis is younger than many of these other guys. But guess what, bad hitters typically decline faster than average ones.

If we can't trade for a Furcal or a Hardy or a Drew or someone like that I would gladly sign an older Edgar Renteria or Orlando Cabrera. Heck, I would sign almost anyone on the FA list. Sign Izzy, too, if you want some sort of insurance. He might be a better utility option than Andino (though maybe not).

[wildcard]

The O's have scored 557 runs so far with 16 games to play. They are on pace for about 610-615 runs scored. So, the 150 runs I quoted doesn't get them to 800, only to 760-765 or so. That would be very slightly above average, which I think you need to have almost no matter how good the pitching is if you want to contend. You don't have to look any further than Seattle (3.89 ERA) or Oakland (3.59 ERA) to see that merely having good pitching doesn't get you to contention.

Now, the O's have room to improve offensively just by getting better performances from some of their own players. But they are still going to need some serious outside help. If we landed Konerko and Beltre, could I live with Izzy batting 9th? Yeah, maybe. But I'd be surprised if we land either one of those guys, much less both of them. So, we need to look hard for an offensive upgrade at SS.

This team was a mess before Buck. i can't base anything about next year based on the full year numbers. The O's aren't that team anymore.

[DrungoHazewood]

I agree in general, but Frobby is really the only one to offer a list of SS alternatives and we went through them and discuss what the bring and there short comings. No one else has offered good alternative. I don't see the O's have a rookie starting SS next year.

The devil is in the specifics.

No, I don't think it is. When your offensive performance is many runs below replacement, and you're a 31-year-old with a good-but-not-great glove, you can think in wide generalities. For example, a decent regular with a decent glove is better than a horrific hitter with a pretty good glove.

I agree. We disagree. I have to think Izturis will be close to his 2008-09 average. Many of the names on the list either will not be available or are poor alternative. There are a few that are worth exploring.

While it's possible he returns to his 2007-08 level, it's not the most likely outcome. Prior to 2010 his PECOTA projection for 2011 was for 0.9 WARP in value. But that's before he undershot his worst-case 10% projection this year by more than a win. I have to think most projections for his 2011 season are going to be in the 0-1 win range. In other words, a player who'd be very lucky to fall into any kind of a regular job.

[CSB Jack]

The O's should explore Hardy, Barnes and anyone either that is an upgrade that does not cost a starting pitcher to acquire.

This is the key part for me and seems to be part of the sticking point for wildcard, not that I want to put words in his mouth. I can live with Izturis as the starting SS (as if I have any choice in the matter) as long as MacPhail seriously explores other options and comes to the conclusion that what it costs to get them exceeds the value in return compared to re-signing Izturis. Based on the information posted in this discussion it's hard to believe that would be the case, but it's possible that nobody that has the assets the Orioles want is willing to trade them for what the Orioles consider reasonable value.

For instance, I would not trade Tillman for a guy who projects as an average MLB SS for a ceiling. If I'm moving him it's for a guy who at least projects as well above average. I can see one of the young pitchers being traded to upgrade SS but I'd rather it be for a blocked MLB ready guy than some league average veteran. I'm not as convinced as wildcard that a rookie SS is out of the question if the Orioles are planning to contend in 2011. If the rookie is solid defensively and has a bit of an adjustment to MLB pitching how is that worse than Izturis?

[Frobby]

This team was a mess before Buck. i can't base anything about next year based on the full year numbers. The O's aren't that team anymore.

See the new thread I started about the "stand pat" team for my opinion about that.

[wildcard]

My favorite thing about this thread is how almost every alternative is too old or getting too old. As if Cesar Izturis is aging backwards. Someone call Brad Pitt, I have a movie to sell him!

Yes, at 30 years old, Izturis is younger than many of these other guys. But guess what, bad hitters typically decline faster than average ones.

If we can't trade for a Furcal or a Hardy or a Drew or someone like that I would gladly sign an older Edgar Renteria or Orlando Cabrera. Heck, I would sign almost anyone on the FA list. Sign Izzy, too, if you want some sort of insurance. He might be a better utility option than Andino (though maybe not).

Do you want Miggi back at SS?

[wildcard]

This is the key part for me and seems to be part of the sticking point for wildcard, not that I want to put words in his mouth. I can live with Izturis as the starting SS (as if I have any choice in the matter) as long as MacPhail seriously explores other options and comes to the conclusion that what it costs to get them exceeds the value in return compared to re-signing Izturis. Based on the information posted in this discussion it's hard to believe that would be the case, but it's possible that nobody that has the assets the Orioles want is willing to trade them for what the Orioles consider reasonable value.

For instance, I would not trade Tillman for a guy who projects as an average MLB SS for a ceiling. If I'm moving him it's for a guy who at least projects as well above average. I can see one of the young pitchers being traded to upgrade SS but I'd rather it be for a blocked MLB ready guy than some league average veteran. I'm not as convinced as wildcard that a rookie SS is out of the question if the Orioles are planning to contend in 2011. If the rookie is solid defensively and has a bit of an adjustment to MLB pitching how is that worse than Izturis?

Very good post.

To me rookies have to make a lot of adjustments defensively from the minor to th majors. The errors, missed double plays, and missed outs cause the pitcher to not be ability to to as deep in games.

There might be exceptions but that is what I think is true generally.

[now]

Do you want Miggi back at SS?

Good lord! That ship has already sailed - twice. Ain't happenin. We could rehash the old Tejada vs. LH arguments, but let's not go there.

[Frobby]

Very good post.

To me rookies have to make a lot of adjustments defensively from the minor to th majors. The errors, missed double plays, and missed outs cause the pitcher to not be ability to to as deep in games.

There might be exceptions but that is what I think is true generally.

I don't really agree here. It just depends whether they are good defenders or not. Elvis Andrus certainly didn't hurt Texas last year. Troy Tulowitzki didn't hurt the Rockies when he arrived.

The adjustments on defense are far easier than those on offense. Major league fields are much better, and the 1B are better able to bail out the other infielders on bad throws.

Now, I do not totally discount what you say. You do get the problem of rookies trying to make spectacular plays and throwing the ball away.

But if we had a rookie who was worth breaking in, wouldn't next year be a good year to do it?