Would you have matched SEA offer to keep Cruz an Oriole?

[Roll Tide]

Our comp pick is between the 1st and 2nd round, not where SEA would've picked.

Well we'd lose our 1st if they sign MCab as a replacement.

[waroriole]

Well we'd lose our 1st if they sign MCab as a replacement.

Yes. I had to stop and think for a second because MCab is Miguel Cabrera in my head.

[Frobby]

Our comp pick is between the 1st and 2nd round, not where SEA would've picked.

OK. Also, technically, Cruz was rated higher than Jimenez last offseason and so we lost our first round pick last year for Cruz. However, we already were due to lose our first round pick after signing Jimenez, so in my mind, Cruz cost us our second rounder last year.

[Ohfan67]

Per fangraphs, over the last four years at ages 30-33 Cruz was worth about $40 mm. Why would I think he'd be worth $57 mm at ages 34-37?

The cost of free agents seems to be increasing quite a bit this year.

[waroriole]

OK. Also, technically, Cruz was rated higher than Jimenez last offseason and so we lost our first round pick last year for Cruz. However, we already were due to lose our first round pick after signing Jimenez, so in my mind, Cruz cost us our second rounder last year.

I agree. We gave up a 2nd Rounder for an ALCS and a comp pick. Good move.

[ShaneDawg85]

Too many years for a mid 30's good but not great hitter who'd never had a power year like that before and would have been hard pressed to repeat it. If you're going to pay a load of money for a DH, you want it to be for a premier one like Edgar Martinez, David Ortiz, Frank Thomas at the end of his career. Nelson Cruz is not that hitter. He's Adam Jones with more power, no defense, and equally frustrating plate selectivity. You pay Adam Jones that to play center field, you don't pay Nelson Cruz that for four years to sit on the bench the majority of the game and hope he replicates a career year.

[Rene88]

My heart says yes but I think that will be a bad deal in the long run. I will miss CRuuuuuz though.

[TouchemAll]

Nope I think they were right at holding on 3 years. My gut tells me in the last 2 years of that contract we'll be more then happy he's out west.

[NCRaven]

I see. Seattle loses their pick, but it doesn't go to the O's. The O's just get the supplemental pick.

My answer to the poll question depends on what they do to replace his bat. If they manage to make a good trade for Kemp, I'll give them a thumbs up. But if they don't get a reliable middle of the lineup bat, I give them a thumbs down. It's the combination of moves that's more important than the individual moves, imo.

I understand your point, but I don't think anything that we do or fail to do going forward makes that a good deal for the team.

[Ripken]

I would have. Yes. The line up wasn't good enough last year and just lost its best hitter. In Dan I trust, but we need some sticks...

[Frobby]

Too many years for a mid 30's good but not great hitter who'd never had a power year like that before and would have been hard pressed to repeat it. If you're going to pay a load of money for a DH, you want it to be for a premier one like Edgar Martinez, David Ortiz, Frank Thomas at the end of his career. Nelson Cruz is not that hitter. He's Adam Jones with more power, no defense, and equally frustrating plate selectivity. You pay Adam Jones that to play center field, you don't pay Nelson Cruz that for four years to sit on the bench the majority of the game and hope he replicates a career year.

Cruz is not remotely comparable to Jones in terms of selectivity. He has a career 7.9% walk rate compared to Jones' 4.4%, and a career swing rate outside the strike zone of 29.9% compared to Jones' 40.8%. Cruz is about league average in both those statistics, whereas Jones is at the extreme.

[ShaneDawg85]

Cruz is not remotely comparable to Jones in terms of selectivity. He has a career 7.9% walk rate compared to Jones' 4.4%, and a career swing rate outside the strike zone of 29.9% compared to Jones' 40.8%. Cruz is about league average in both those statistics, whereas Jones is at the extreme.

Wrong choice of words, I was thinking about OBP and equated that to pitch selectivity when they don't necessarily mean the same thing. But .328 career OBP vs. .320. Point is that Cruz isn't that dissimilar to Jones in terms of getting on base when you really look at the numbers. The difference is he's somewhat better at it and hits for more power.

[DrungoHazewood]

Cruz is being paid for almost 10 wins at $6M per win. Or more than he's been worth over the previous four seasons. Seattle is either betting that he ages in reverse, or that baseball inflation is going to be fairly extreme. My figurin' says Cruz is worth about 4/30 based on a weighted average of his last four years and a half a win decline per year. The Mariners essentially doubled that. As I said earlier in the offseason the Orioles should have thanked him for 2014 and the draft pick, given him a nice basket of Orioles-logoed baseballs and some Old Bay, and wished him good luck in whatever place thinks they've found the fountain of youth.

[isestrex]

I knew this wouldn't be a 50/50 split but I'm surprised just how many posters think that's a good price for Cruz.

[DrungoHazewood]

I knew this wouldn't be a 50/50 split but I'm surprised just how many posters think that's a good price for Cruz.

I think 20% is a good estimate of the percentage of people who don't care what a player costs, Peter Angelos is a billionaire and should just pay whatever to keep/acquire good players.