Orioles trade Davies for Parra. Your verdict?

[Scrat1]

I don't like to use WAR as an estimate of what a player is going to do for 60 games. If you want to use it to compare players over a much larger length of time in a much more general sense, fine. But you can't just be like "he's only going to contribute 1 win". That's a meaningless way to use that statistic.

Yet you were using OPS to compare him and Snider. WAR is just doing the same thing, only with slightly more sophistication. Obviously there is no way to know exactly how many wins one player is going to contribute. It's a projection, but it's a way to measure one player's contribution relative to another. As you mentioned, there are only 60 games left, just not that much time to make an impact. Is Parra such an improvement over Snider that he can truly make a difference in just 60 days? I suspect not.

Edited July 31, 2015 by Scrat1

[Malike]

I don't like the trade because I don't believe this trade will make the team any closer to the playoffs today then they were yesterday. (No silly jokes about not playing a game yet today please)

[VeveJones007]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/gerardo-parra-changed-man/

I mentioned his higher FB% and lower GB% earlier.

[Austin]

So then we should expect Snider to jump about 40 points in the OPS department in the final 2 months. Or Paredes to tank about 100 points.

Snider hitting closer to his career numbers and Paredes regressing wouldn't surprise me in the least.

[Can_of_corn]

Both sets are relevant. But what if this happens to be his breakout year? What if he's just having that one great year of his career like Markakis did? Or like Pearce did? A .370 BABIP is not solely to account for an .880 OPS, unless someone would like to do some serious to attempt to prove that.

Brother man is having a great year! Let him have a great year! He's not going to average an .880 OPS over the final 2 months. But he's not going to sit at .700 either like he has for his career. That's just not likely.

He will probably end up somewhere in between, but 700 is more likely then 880.

Didn't we just see this with Pearce last season?

[Scrat1]

Maybe not. But wouldn't you rather watch Parra? Lol. He's at least less of a square blob than Snider, more of a sure thing than Alvarez, and obviously better than Lough (offensively) and Parmelee, and maybe Reimold, too, depending.

Maybe so, if this were all in a vacuum. But it's not, because we had to trade Davies for him. I'd rather watch Davies.

[sfosfan]

Too bad the poll didn't have a third option- a good trade if the O's sign him after the season. Nobody wants to give up a high prospect like Davies for just a two month rental, but I could easily see the O's not signing all their FA's and thus, have money spend on Parra. As good as Davies has looked, I'm not ready to bump him ahead of Bundy and Harvey, despite their injuries. Not yet anyways. This gives Zach a good shot at playing in the majors sooner than with the O's, and we get a good player for two months. And maybe that helps put the O's in a better place to sign him once the season ends- definitely worth it.

[Redskins Rick]

Shame we couldn't get them to throw in Hader in the deal.

[Can_of_corn]

Maybe not. But wouldn't you rather watch Parra? Lol. He's at least less of a square blob than Snider, more of a sure thing than Alvarez, and obviously better than Lough (offensively) and Parmelee, and maybe Reimold, too, depending.

I don't want to trade Davies just so I can "watch" Parra instead of Snider.

[SteveO]

Because he likes his experience in Baltimore, or any of a myriad of other reasons?

Again, there is a difference if he doesn't hit the market. There would be no competition they'd have to outbid.

I don't get why in this situation, ignoring context is seen as the more accurate means of evaluation.

The guy is having a career year and you seriously think he is gonna sign a deal to stay here "cause he likes his experience here" ? He will sign a deal here if the money DD put on the table is roughly what he and his agent think they can get on the market. Otherwise he is a rental.

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[Can_of_corn]

I'd rather watch Gausman, Ubaldo, Gonzo, Tillman, and a sweet free agent starter that we sign in the offseason. We'll see about Davies.

I don't even view Davies as a viable member of the rotation. I just see him as a guy that can pitch at AAA and if the O's need a sport starter for a day or a month they can bring him up.

[Austin]

Neither of them are going to approach their career averages. At all. So my point is that sometimes when you have a good year, you just have a good year. Same if you're having a bad year.

Snider is .006 away from his career BA, and is actually OBPing better than his career numbers. How is that not approaching his career numbers? You don't think he could muster a .710 OPS for the rest of the year?

Just because a guy is having a great year doesn't mean the entire year will be great. He could still have a good line at the end of the year while not living up to the .880 OPS he's had so far.

[VeveJones007]

I'd rather watch Gausman, Ubaldo, Gonzo, Tillman, and a sweet free agent starter that we sign in the offseason. We'll see about Davies.

$$$ will be spent on position players. Not SP.

[Babypowder]

Ah, but would you trade Davies to watch the O's sneak into the playoffs this year?

You believe the difference between Parra and Snider over the next 60 days is postseason vs. no postseason?

[Can_of_corn]

Ah, but would you trade Davies to watch the O's sneak into the playoffs this year?

Yep.

But I think even if he has an 880 OPS that he wont make the difference.