Moves I’d like to see this weekend

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, UMDTerrapins said:

 

It’s an interesting exercise. Pretending that’s the roster before Rule V, that leaves one spot for the draft, and another for a backup catcher. So essentially that roster would be full with no space for additions w/out DFAs. I notice Ryan Watson, but he doesn’t need protecting this off-season. I have hope for Kremer, but that’s not the point. The point is that when we add the newly eligibles and fill out the roster for 2023, we’re going to start feeling a squeeze and start exposing players we don’t want to, or make some trades like SG mentioned. Particularly if we’re adding names that don’t otherwise need protecting like Henderson, Westburg, Prieto, Uvila, etc. And there is no chance Elias doesn’t make more waiver pickups. 

Yes, I messed up Watson.  He doesn't need to be on the list which puts my list at 37.  If Kremer show something this summer there is room for him.   No need for a backup catcher  before the Rule 5 draft.  I full expect that Elias will move fringe player during the off season.

I would really love to see the O's go on a winning streak once Adley, Grayson and DL are up.   That might force them to add Gunnar.      If the team does something like that they would have to consider whether to keep Lyles and Mancini.

 

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Players that need to be on the 40 man before next rule 5 that aren't on right now:

• Adley
• Stowers
• Rizer
• GRod
• Brnovich
• Handley
• Daschbach
• Welk
• Z Watson
• Fontana
• Rom
• Stallings
• Peek
• McLarty
• Denoyer
• Lucas
• McSweeney
• Burch
• Ortiz

 

Of those, Adley, Stowers, Rom and GRod are the obvious adds.  Peek, Ortiz and Stallings are potentials.  Brnovich would have been but after this TJ surgery, I tend to doubt it.  Handley is possible if he starts to hit.

Free agents on current 40 man:

• Owings
• Odor
• Mancini (have a mutual option)
• Chirinos
• Lyles (have option)

 

Arb eligible:

• Santander- Arb 3 of 4
• Means- Arb 2 of 3
• Lopez: Arb 2 of 3
• Benboom: Arb 1 of 3
• Mullins: Arb 1 of 3
• Hays: Arb 1 of 3
• Tate: Arb 1 of 3
• Mateo: Arb 1 of 3

 

Spotrac, who I don't love, is showing us owing Davis about 9.2M in 2023.  Cobb and ODay are 5.5M.  If that's true, we are looking at roughly 14.7M owed to players no longer here.  For the moment, let's assume that the Orioles don't trade any of the key arb guys but do not bring back Lyles or Mancini.  I would say for those arb eligible players (I am taking off Benboom), that will be about 25M in salaries, give or take.  So, that will push the payroll to about 40M.

Mancini would be 10M and Lyles would be 11.  

Of the current 40 man roster, of those names I have not mentioned, these are the most likely to go:

• Diplan
• Ellis (on 60 day)
• Lakins
• Reyes
• Sulser
• Watkins
• Bannon
• Jones

All of them could be cut and it won't matter..in fact, a lot of them probably will be cut before the season ends.

Those on the 40 man who have a lot to do to keep that spot:

• Gillaspie
• Kremer
• Lowther
• A Wells
• Nevin
• Diaz 

Players performing now but could easily be DFA'ed in a month:

• Perez
• Kreihbel
• Baker

 

So, I think we are still in position where a lot of 40 man spots could easily be available and there aren't a ton of MUST ADDS. The current situation isn't too bad but it won't be long before it becomes an issue.

Just to expand on this...Here are those players that need to be added before the 2023 rule 5:

• Mundy
• G Henderson
• Westburg
• Haskin
• B Young
• Velez
• Bowens
• Pinto
• Hernaiz
• Servideo
• Kjerstad

 

[waroriole]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Just to expand on this...Here are those players that need to be added before the 2023 rule 5:

• Mundy
• G Henderson
• Westburg
• Haskin
• B Young
• Velez
• Bowens
• Pinto
• Hernaiz
• Servideo
• Kjerstad

 

Wow it’s insane that Kjerstad is already going to need to be added and he hasn’t played a game yet. 

[eddie83]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Yes, I messed up Watson.  He doesn't need to be on the list which puts my list at 37.  If Kremer show something this summer there is room for him.   No need for a backup catcher  before the Rule 5 draft.  I full expect that Elias will move fringe player during the off season.

I would really love to see the O's go on a winning streak once Adley, Grayson and DL are up.   That might force them to add Gunnar.      If the team does something like that they would have to consider whether to keep Lyles and Mancini.

 

What makes you think that would have any inpact on Gunnar? Nothing Elias has done indicates that. 

[Sports Guy]

So, overall, between now and the 2023 Rule 5, I think we can safely say that there will be a need to add at least 10 of the players not currently on the 40 man.  That number could rise to as high as 15 or so.

And, Lyles and Mancini are still the only FA for 2023, if we even keep them after this year.

[OriolesMagic83]

10 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Wow it’s insane that Kjerstad is already going to need to be added and he hasn’t played a game yet. 

Can't the O's apply for another year of control of Kjerstad due to injuries?

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Wow it’s insane that Kjerstad is already going to need to be added and he hasn’t played a game yet. 

Note that SG is referring to the 2023 Rule 5, not the upcoming one.  

[waroriole]

39 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Note that SG is referring to the 2023 Rule 5, not the upcoming one.  

After this season or next season he’ll need to be added?

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, waroriole said:

After this season or next season he’ll need to be added?

After next season. 

[waroriole]

34 minutes ago, Frobby said:

After next season. 

That seems more reasonable. I guess the same date will apply to Westburg too. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

What makes you think that would have any inpact on Gunnar? Nothing Elias has done indicates that. 

Winning changes things.  The only way Gunnar is promoted to the O's this year is if the O's get in the  playoff race.  May sound far fetched now being 6 behind the Jays.  But  the Jays so far don't look invincible.   The O's lose 3 games in the standing in about a week.   They may be able to gain 6 games in two months if they get hot.

The way the O's played at the beginning of May gives me hope.   With players healthy and adding Adley and Grayson who know what could happen?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Winning changes things.  The only way Gunnar is promoted to the O's this year is if the O's get in the  playoff race.  May sound far fetched now being 6 behind the Jays.  But  the Jays so far don't look invincible.   The O's lose 3 games in the standing in about a week.   They may be able to gain 6 games in two months if they get hot.

The way the O's played at the beginning of May gives me hope.   With players healthy and adding Adley and Grayson who know what could happen?

They aren't just six games behind the Jays.  They are also behind everyone between them and the Jays.  This isn't about chasing down one team.

[UMDTerrapins]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Just to expand on this...Here are those players that need to be added before the 2023 rule 5:

• Mundy
• G Henderson
• Westburg
• Haskin
• B Young
• Velez
• Bowens
• Pinto
• Hernaiz
• Servideo
• Kjerstad

 

Thanks for adding this and all the other info in your other posts! One of the few threads that derails in a good way. I'd love to compile all this info into its own pinned/updated thread because I find myself digging for this numerous times throughout the season and offseason. Roster Resource is excellent, but you have to extract this kind of info....it isn't laid out in a way that helps quickly digest 40 man roster matters, present and future. It's more of a curiosity now, but like you've indicated, will become a real issue in the coming year or so. It will become a little more complicated than just naming 40 of your best guys to protect, because sometimes the ML roster will need guys who aren't among the 40 most valuable. A GM needs to fill out the 26 man ML roster, covering short term injuries, an overworked bullpen, spot starters, backup catcher, utility IF, 4th OF, etc. Not everyone on the 40 is a candidate to fill those needs, and we know Elias isn't one to promote prospects prematurely to cover needs. So I think these kinds of 40 man roster conundrums will arrive sooner than it would appear conceptually. It's interesting that you noted Elias already talking about the coming need to trade guys to make room on the 40....he knows he's going to be challenged to retain the quantity of talent he's accumulated and not just the highest quality players. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

Thanks for adding this and all the other info in your other posts! One of the few threads that derails in a good way. I'd love to compile all this info into its own pinned/updated thread because I find myself digging for this numerous times throughout the season and offseason. Roster Resource is excellent, but you have to extract this kind of info....it isn't laid out in a way that helps quickly digest 40 man roster matters, present and future. It's more of a curiosity now, but like you've indicated, will become a real issue in the coming year or so. It will become a little more complicated than just naming 40 of your best guys to protect, because sometimes the ML roster will need guys who aren't among the 40 most valuable. A GM needs to fill out the 26 man ML roster, covering short term injuries, an overworked bullpen, spot starters, backup catcher, utility IF, 4th OF, etc. Not everyone on the 40 is a candidate to fill those needs, and we know Elias isn't one to promote prospects prematurely to cover needs. So I think these kinds of 40 man roster conundrums will arrive sooner than it would appear conceptually. It's interesting that you noted Elias already talking about the coming need to trade guys to make room on the 40....he knows he's going to be challenged to retain the volume of talent he's accumulated and not just the most valuable players. 

Obviously, we don't how guys will develop, who gets hurt, etc...but you don't want to lose arms like a Zach Peek for nothing.  There is too much value there even if he is just a MR prospect.  To not have to pay millions of dollars for players like that is exactly what you want.  Your last 10 or so guys on your roster should cost you nothing.  You want the money going into your best 10-15 guys.  So don't lose those players over 40 man issues.  You trade them (or other players) and make sure you are getting value back, whether its immediate help or guys further away from the 40 man.

This is why I am less concerned with spending to the level of the others in our division.  We should be constantly rotating these types of guys in and out of the roster.  Keep them cheap.

[waroriole]

22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They aren't just six games behind the Jays.  They are also behind everyone between them and the Jays.  This isn't about chasing down one team.

Just let him be. We should all be so lucky to live in the fantasy world that has the Orioles contending for the wildcard.