Mateo Trade Potential

[forphase1]

9 hours ago, orioles22 said:

I don't get why some seem to dislike Mateo. I could see the logic of a trade if Elias think he's peaked, but it seems he has made a lot of progress since he came to Baltimore. I never expected him to ever be in the conversation as one of the best defensive shortstops in the game. I also don't see him being a utility guy when you'd be putting an inferior defender at short, and who's to say he's an elite defender in the outfield.

I don't dislike him.  Just feel that because of how poor the bat is we'd be overall better off with a slightly less awesome fielder, but one that can likely hit some too.  Like what I think Ortiz could do.   I know the war he put up last year,  but I also know how volitile defensive ratings and metrics can be,  so I take his war with a grain of salt.  Plus the way the O's are currently constructed we don't have the lineup to really carry so many holes in the lineup.  A Mateo type hurts less on a team with a stacked lineup as if 1-8 is solid, 9 can be poor.  But one of our problems is we have a few good hitters, with the rest being super streaky, injury prone or just not established as mlb hitters.  That makes carrying a Mateo in the starting lineup harder to do as we don't have the other guys to carry the team with their sticks.  If Mateo could even be average to slightly below average with the bat,  then it's a different story.  But to this point he's really bad,  other than a great 6-8 week period when he caught fire.

[orioles22]

29 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

I don't dislike him.  Just feel that because of how poor the bat is we'd be overall better off with a slightly less awesome fielder, but one that can likely hit some too.  Like what I think Ortiz could do.   I know the war he put up last year,  but I also know how volitile defensive ratings and metrics can be,  so I take his war with a grain of salt.  Plus the way the O's are currently constructed we don't have the lineup to really carry so many holes in the lineup.  A Mateo type hurts less on a team with a stacked lineup as if 1-8 is solid, 9 can be poor.  But one of our problems is we have a few good hitters, with the rest being super streaky, injury prone or just not established as mlb hitters.  That makes carrying a Mateo in the starting lineup harder to do as we don't have the other guys to carry the team with their sticks.  If Mateo could even be average to slightly below average with the bat,  then it's a different story.  But to this point he's really bad,  other than a great 6-8 week period when he caught fire.

I understand the logic there, but I'd want my best defenders at short, center and catcher, and we seem to have that with Mateo, Mullins and Adley. I'm hoping our offense improves with more consistency from Hays and Mountcastle and continued progress from Adley and Gunnar. I still hope we trade for a good starting pitcher to be our No. 1 guy by using some of the surplus we have in the infield and in our rotation to go with one of our outfielders.

 

[Moose Milligan]

6 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Agree of course, but steroids have been made illegal and are tested for also.

So then we agree that the Bill James info you provided from ‘82 is out of date. 

[Frobby]

11 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Or 27.

When Bill James published his first national "Baseball Abstract" in 1982, one of his major studies showed that, in general, position players peaked at age 27.

https://abc7ny.com/sports/mlb-hitters-who-are-missing-their-age-27-peak-season-in-2020/6259572/#:~:text=A player's peak age is around age 27%2C,now back to a more normal aging curve.

I hope that Mateo has several more productive, hitting years, but if it took until 27 for him to become a MLB regular, he's likely to have a short career.  Sure there are outliers like Mora, but not that many.

I still think it’s best to look at each player individually.  Productivity as a player is a combination of physical skills and experience.   Mateo is probably going to decline in physical skill from here, but he’s still at the point where he’s gaining important big league experience.  I think offensively he could improve significantly in the next couple of seasons.  Emphasis on the word “could” — I’m not predicting it will happen, just saying there’s a respectable chance.  I think the O’s will give him at least a couple of months to show what he can do.  And, we’ll see what’s going on with our AAA guys.

[OriolesMagic83]

7 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

So then we agree that the Bill James info you provided from ‘82 is out of date. 

The article did point out that with better training and analytics that players were peaking even earlier at the time of the article.  What data do you have that players are peaking later?

[Moose Milligan]

28 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

The article did point out that with better training and analytics that players were peaking even earlier at the time of the article.  What data do you have that players are peaking later?

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/9933/how-do-baseball-players-age-investigating-the-age-27-theory/

Around 29.  

As usual, @Frobbyis correct though.  It's best to look at a player individually.

In regards to Mateo, someone who looks to be in really good shape and has top end speed, I highly doubt that his skill set and abilities will crater between September of 2022 and April of 2023.  But you never know.

 

[OriolesMagic83]

32 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/9933/how-do-baseball-players-age-investigating-the-age-27-theory/

Around 29.  

As usual, @Frobbyis correct though.  It's best to look at a player individually.

In regards to Mateo, someone who looks to be in really good shape and has top end speed, I highly doubt that his skill set and abilities will crater between September of 2022 and April of 2023.  But you never know.

 

Well I doubt his skills will crater in the offseason unless he is having a Chris Davis offseason.  Speed is one of the earliest things to decline for a player.  Will Mateo still have elite defensive value if his speed drops from say high 99th percentile to say 90th?  Obviously no guarantee that Mateo will decline this year but just as much of a guess to say he will improve.   

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Well I doubt his skills will crater in the offseason unless he is having a Chris Davis offseason.  Speed is one of the earliest things to decline for a player.  Will Mateo still have elite defensive value if his speed drops from say high 99th percentile to say 90th?  Obviously no guarantee that Mateo will decline this year but just as much of a guess to say he will improve.   

Then you've still got a very cheap player in the 90th percentile for speed.  I don't see what the complaint is.

[OriolesMagic83]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Then you've still got a very cheap player in the 90th percentile for speed.  I don't see what the complaint is.

There's no complaining.  My point is he good enough to be a MLB starting SS, especially over someone like Ortiz.  A point can be made that Ortiz needs more seasoning in AAA.  If Ortiz is hitting the first half of 2023 like he did in 2022, does he get promoted to the majors and the SS starting spot and Mateo become utility player or get traded?

[ScGO's]

I say keep Mateo to start the season. I like the depth. It's something the Os haven't had in a long time. As far as SS goes, he's the most experienced one in the system. Let someone force him out 

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

There's no complaining.  My point is he good enough to be a MLB starting SS, especially over someone like Ortiz.  A point can be made that Ortiz needs more seasoning in AAA.  If Ortiz is hitting the first half of 2023 like he did in 2022, does he get promoted to the majors and the SS starting spot and Mateo become utility player or get traded?

From a defensive perspective, he's good enough.  

I think your outcome is very likely.  I'd like to hold onto him as a utility guy.  If we're going to trot out terrible Sunday lineups, I'd prefer to have a good defender out there and someone who can swipe a base, too.

[sportsfan8703]

I just don’t see how Mateo holds off the competition for everyday SS. We’re absolutely loaded at SS. Gunnar. Westburg. Ortiz. Holliday. 
 

I said earlier in this thread that we’ll see what the FO/Hyde thinks and if we see Mateo play other positions in ST. Two games in and no glimpse yet. 
 

Realistically, I just don’t see how Mateo holds these boys off. 

[Sports Guy]

Gavin Lux left on a cart today and could be injured bad.

Wonder if they try to move Mateo there

[Camden_yardbird]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Gavin Lux left on a cart today and could be injured bad.

Wonder if they try to move Mateo there

Can't wait for the posts... we should just take Mateo from the Orioles, he would cost us our 37th best prospect. 

I hate how big market centered baseball is right now.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Can't wait for the posts... we should just take Mateo from the Orioles, he would cost us our 37th best prospect. 

I hate how big market centered baseball is right now.

As opposed to the last century?

All sports are large market centered, they have more people.