Offseason trade target: Luis Robert

[Sports Guy]

The Orioles have drafted a lot of OFers over the last few years and the idea of trading for one may sound a little crazy. 
 

The idea of trading for Robert, who may be a guy that the White Sox don’t even want to trade, is for several reasons.

First of all, he is obviously a great player who just turned 26. He is signed cheaply through 2025 and has a team option in 2026 and 2027 for 20M each year. So, assuming you pick up those options, you have him for 4/59.5.

Another benefit is that we are a very left handed hitting team and that figures to get more prevalent in the upcoming years.
 

And while it would be nice to think that we could field a team made up of entirely home grown players, the reality is that it’s not very likely that will happen. Even the Braves, a team loaded with homegrown guys, has traded for Olson and Murphy.

Robert isn’t without his risks. Besides what you would have to give up for him, he has an injury history and, prior to this season, had never played in 100 games in his previous 3 big league seasons (although  he did play in most of the shortened 2020 season).

There is a limit on the players I would deal for him but I would offer them a package deal that allows them to choose one of Cowser or Kjerstad, one of Ortiz or Westburg and then I would allow them to choose 2 players from a group of guys that would including Mounty, Kremer, Hall, McDermott, Povich and probably several other prospects that would be outside of our top 10 but all guys that most teams would probably covet/value and would be top 10 guys in most organizations.

I would stop short at offering our top 3 prospects…Holliday, Mayo and Basallo..but lots of other players and combos are on the table.

Is this a guy you would want the Os to go after?  Or would you rather not give up a lot of talent for a player with his injury history?

[Aristotelian]

He's really good but I thought you don't believe in blocking prospects and we have prospects in the pipeline. I doubt Elias does any long term contracts. Lock up our own guys first.

[Camden_yardbird]

Not high on trading for a guy at his highest value who has failed to meet that value in the previous 3 years due to injury.

56, 68, 98 games played the previous 3 years.

Also no way you walk away with Robert without giving up one, if not two of the guys you mentioned.  Maybe Cowser + Basallo gets you there?

I agree that the Orioles won't go into 2024 or 2025 with a fully homegrown roster and should expect to compete that way.  But I don't expect Elias to ever go get someone at peak value.  He will look for underperformance and trade for bounceback candidates.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Not high on trading for a guy at his highest value who has failed to meet that value in the previous 3 years due to injury.

56, 68, 98 games played the previous 3 years.

Also no way you walk away with Robert without giving up one, if not two of the guys you mentioned.  Maybe Cowser + Basallo gets you there?

I agree that the Orioles won't go into 2024 or 2025 with a fully homegrown roster and should expect to compete that way.  But I don't expect Elias to ever go get someone at peak value.  He will look for underperformance and trade for bounceback candidates.

You do know that the 2020 season was abbreviated right?

[baltfan]

When I first saw this, I was thinking no way.  But your argument has swayed me a bit.  I was really impressed by his jumps when the Orioles played him and his easy power is quite impressive. I would be on board with this sort of thing.  Nice job thinking outside of the box a bit.

[dystopia]

Are we really that left handed hitting of a team? We have Hays and Mountcastle, plus a bunch of switch hitters. We don’t have trouble against LHP. Seems like this trade has more risk than benefit.  

[wildcard]

35 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Orioles have drafted a lot of OFers over the last few years and the idea of trading for one may sound a little crazy. 
 

The idea of trading for Robert, who may be a guy that the White Sox don’t even want to trade, is for several reasons.

First of all, he is obviously a great player who just turned 26. He is signed cheaply through 2025 and has a team option in 2026 and 2027 for 20M each year. So, assuming you pick up those options, you have him for 4/59.5.

Another benefit is that we are a very left handed hitting team and that figures to get more prevalent in the upcoming years.
 

And while it would be nice to think that we could field a team made up of entirely home grown players, the reality is that it’s not very likely that will happen. Even the Braves, a team loaded with homegrown guys, has traded for Olson and Murphy.

Robert isn’t without his risks. Besides what you would have to give up for him, he has an injury history and, prior to this season, had never played in 100 games in his previous 3 big league seasons (although  he did play in most of the shortened 2020 season).

There is a limit on the players I would deal for him but I would offer them a package deal that allows them to choose one of Cowser or Kjerstad, one of Ortiz or Westburg and then I would allow them to choose 2 players from a group of guys that would including Mounty, Kremer, Hall, McDermott, Povich and probably several other prospects that would be outside of our top 10 but all guys that most teams would probably covet/value and would be top 10 guys in most organizations.

I would stop short at offering our top 3 prospects…Holliday, Mayo and Basallo..but lots of other players and combos are on the table.

Is this a guy you would want the Os to go after?  Or would you rather not give up a lot of talent for a player with his injury history?

So you think that the O's are going to trade a bunch of cheap players for an expensive one.   Doesn't sound like the O's philosophy to me.

[RZNJ]

Poor thought process.  Buying sky high on a player.   Robert’s value will never be higher than it is now.   

[oriolediehard]

45 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Orioles have drafted a lot of OFers over the last few years and the idea of trading for one may sound a little crazy. 
 

The idea of trading for Robert, who may be a guy that the White Sox don’t even want to trade, is for several reasons.

First of all, he is obviously a great player who just turned 26. He is signed cheaply through 2025 and has a team option in 2026 and 2027 for 20M each year. So, assuming you pick up those options, you have him for 4/59.5.

Another benefit is that we are a very left handed hitting team and that figures to get more prevalent in the upcoming years.
 

And while it would be nice to think that we could field a team made up of entirely home grown players, the reality is that it’s not very likely that will happen. Even the Braves, a team loaded with homegrown guys, has traded for Olson and Murphy.

Robert isn’t without his risks. Besides what you would have to give up for him, he has an injury history and, prior to this season, had never played in 100 games in his previous 3 big league seasons (although  he did play in most of the shortened 2020 season).

There is a limit on the players I would deal for him but I would offer them a package deal that allows them to choose one of Cowser or Kjerstad, one of Ortiz or Westburg and then I would allow them to choose 2 players from a group of guys that would including Mounty, Kremer, Hall, McDermott, Povich and probably several other prospects that would be outside of our top 10 but all guys that most teams would probably covet/value and would be top 10 guys in most organizations.

I would stop short at offering our top 3 prospects…Holliday, Mayo and Basallo..but lots of other players and combos are on the table.

Is this a guy you would want the Os to go after?  Or would you rather not give up a lot of talent for a player with his injury history?

I do not want to trade Westburg!!!!

[baltfan]

13 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Are we really that left handed hitting of a team? We have Hays and Mountcastle, plus a bunch of switch hitters. We don’t have trouble against LHP. Seems like this trade has more risk than benefit.  

Those guys won't be here in a year or two.  The best prospects of the Orioles tend to be left-handed except Mayo.

[dystopia]

3 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Those guys won't be here in a year or two.  The best prospects of the Orioles tend to be left-handed except Mayo.

I would expect RMC and Hays to still be Orioles next year. 

[baltfan]

2 minutes ago, dystopia said:

I would expect RMC and Hays to still be Orioles next year. 

Robert is a play for the future too, not just for next year.

[dystopia]

4 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Robert is a play for the future too, not just for next year.

He’s the same age as RMC and only 2 years younger than Hays. 
 

Robert’s a great player but the injury risk is real and I feel like what we would have to give up ain’t worth it. 

[Jim'sKid26]

Interesting idea. @Sports Guy

Three issues with it:

1. Why would Chicago want to trade him? He's good and he's inexpensive and under control for 3 more seasons. 

2. He breaks. To quote you: " had never played in 100 games in his previous 3 big league season."

3. The Orioles need pitching and should use their prospect capital toward that end. Not another outfielder.

I also think you need to see what you have in Bradfield before you block him. His CF defense is rather amazing. Whether the bat plays will dictate where he bats in the lineup, but his D is MLB ready now. You will know a lot more after a full season of MiLB ball.

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

I do not want to trade Westburg!!!!

I kind of don’t either but either Ortiz or Westburg basically have to be dealt. There is a real question as to which one is the better player long term.

I think making one a part time player for us is short changing their value, so trading them to bring back a high level guy (whether it be Robert or a pitcher) is a better way to go.