Most Valuable Oriole 2023

[byrdz]

Bradish for emerging as the teams ace.

[Tony-OH]

Was Kyle Gibson put on here as the throwaway pick like when you have multiple choice tests in the Army?

Gibson is not even a top five pitcher of the year for the Orioles candidate.

[jabba72]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Was Kyle Gibson put on here as the throwaway pick like when you have multiple choice tests in the Army?

Gibson is not even a top five pitcher of the year for the Orioles candidate.

15 wins placed him here I'm guessing.

[btdart20]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So, in a 14-game span, Adley’s been worth 1.0 fWAR, 0.8 rWAR, while Gunnar’s been worth 0.6 fWAR, 0.8 rWAR.  All those numbers are very good for both players, as 14 games is only about 9% of a season   You’d take those numbers any day.  

What's the WAR gains for Bradish and Grayson?  The four of them are chugging into the playoffs!  

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

What's the WAR gains for Bradish and Grayson?  The four of them are chugging into the playoffs!  

Unfortunately, I’ve only been tracking the hitters.  

[Fan4Life]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

A ton of options.  We're not heavily dependent on a handful of guys. 

 

Adley is the bedrock.  So much of the team is built on his foundation (OBP, XBH, pitching, defense, relational skills...).  Can't go wrong picking Adley.

Gunnar's brilliance had been building all season.  He's been as advertised.  And better defensively.  Can't go wrong here either.

Grayson's development has been very important for the second half.  Not quite the threshold for the year, but maybe the playoffs.

A ton of offensive role players who have had big/key moments (Santander, O'Hearn, Mullins, Mountcastle, Hays, Hicks, Frazier) and crucial depth/match-ups.  Pitching has had a few big moments from Cano, Wells, Gibson, and Kremer too.

Bautista was the final nail for the 1-run wins.  There's a strong case to be made that he's the best at his position across the league.  Maybe I'm misremembering, but I don't think any of our other players have as strong of a case (some in the conversation).  

But I went with Bradish.  He's been a consistent TOR all season.  Top 3 in ERA is as valuable as it can get.

 

This! There are  likely around 8 players who without their contributions, accounts for +/- 5 games in the standings. 

[Fan4Life]

1 hour ago, jabba72 said:

Voted Adley too, only because the O's dont have another Catcher that provides the offense he brings. The O's have depth at SS and 3B even though Gunnar's still had a great year. 

I also voted Adley, but primarily because I think he is the leader (the glue) of the club. All production has a contribution from him in it somewhere. Leading by example etc. 

Edited September 28, 2023 by Fan4Life

[LookinUp]

For what it's worth, BBRef has their WAR at:

Bradish: 4.8
Grayson: 0.9
Adley: 4.2
Gunnar: 6.2
Felix: 3.0
Gibson: 0.6
Santander: 3.0
Hays: 2.6
Mullins: 3.0
Cano: 2.4
Kremer: 1.2
Coulombe: 1.4
Mountcastle: 1.9
O'Hearn: 1.4
 

[btdart20]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Unfortunately, I’ve only been tracking the hitters.  

Only?  How committed to this are you? 

Bref has Bradish down for 5 start in Sept with a 2.18 ERA, 2.77 FIP, 33:8 K:BB ratio over 33 IP.  .506 OPS.  .231 Babip.

Grayson has had 5 starts in Sept as well with a 2.17 ERA, 2.32 FIP, 32:7 K:BB raito over 29 IP.  .671 OPS.  .363 Babip.

 

[dystopia]

What in the world is Gibson doing here? Going off of fWAR or something? 
 

anyway, it’s Gunnar

[Moose Milligan]

I went with Gunnar.  Adley or Bradish could win, there's nothing wrong with either.

SG made an appealing case for Bautista but I don't buy it 100%.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

I went with Gunnar.  Adley or Bradish could win, there's nothing wrong with either.

SG made an appealing case for Bautista but I don't buy it 100%.

The weird thing is if Bautista never gets hurt, I think he finishes 1st or 2nd in the team MVP vote this year. The last month has shown Bautista is valuable, but probably not the most valuable player on the team.

Losing Gunnar, Adley or Bradish would hurt much more when it comes to winning percentage.

[Frobby]

So, this is going to sound like I’m dissing Bautista, but it’s not meant that way.  

The job of a closer is to preserve the lead that’s handed to him.  Bautista did that 33 of 39 times, or 84.6% of the time.  

There are 23 pitchers who had at least 20 saves.   Their average save rate was 85.8%.

So, in terms of preserving leads, Bautista was about average for a decent closer in 2023.

Now, I know Bautista was more “dominant” than most of these guys.  Among relievers with 50+ innings, he was tops in K/9, 5th in ERA, 5th in WHIP.   That made him a joy to watch, and on most nights he gave the other team no chance.  

Bur when it comes to “most valuable,” I don’t really care if a closer struck out the side or loaded the bases and got three screaming liners for outs.  I care about whether he preserved the lead or he didn’t.  Because that’s how you win games.   That’s what’s valuable to me.   

So for me, I can’t call a closer with an 84.6% save rate the most valuable player on the team, no matter how many guys he struck out or how few guys got hits off him.   Those are different issues.    

And yes, I realize that McKenna dropped a fly ball in one of his blown saves and another came when a ghost runner scored.   But he’s not the only closer who ever had an error committed behind him or who had ghost runners to deal with.  Dealing with those things are part of the job description, and sometimes it’s not going to work out, for any closer.

So that’s why I feel like the position players who played almost every game and who were truly outstanding were more valuable than Bautista.

 

Edited September 28, 2023 by Frobby

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So, this is going to sound like I’m dissing Bautista, but it’s not meant that way.  

The job of a closer is to preserve the lead that’s handed to him.  Bautista did that 33 of 39 times, or 84.6% of the time.  

There are 23 pitchers who had at least 20 saves.   Their average save rate was 85.8%.

So, in terms of preserving leads, Bautista was about average for a decent closer in 2023.

Now, I know Bautista was more “dominant” than most of these guys.  Among relievers with 50+ innings, he was tops in K/9, 5th in ERA, 5th in WHIP.   That made him a joy to watch, and on most nights he gave the other team no chance.  

Bur when it comes to “most valuable,” I don’t really care if a closer struck out the side or loaded the bases and got three screaming liners for outs.  I care about whether he preserved the lead or he didn’t.  Because that’s how you win games.   That’s what’s valuable to me.   

So for me, I can’t call a closer with an 84.6% save rate the most valuable player on the team, no matter how many guys he struck out or how few guys got hits off him.   Those are different issues.    

And yes, I realize that McKenna dropped a fly ball in one of his blown saves and another came when a ghost runner scored.   But he’s not the only closer who ever had an error committed behind him or who had ghost runners to deal with.  Dealing with those things are part of the job description, and sometimes it’s not going to work out, for any closer.

So that’s why I feel like the position players played almost every game and who were truly outstanding were more valuable than Bautista.

 

We could have been a playoff team without Gunnar.

They aren’t one without Bautista or, they are at least fighting for one and are on the borderline but I don’t think they get in.
 

Gunnar is the best player on the team but he’s not in my top 2 for MVO because we could have replaced him with Ortiz or Mayo and we probably still make the playoffs.

Without Bautista, a team that didn’t have that great of a run differential for most of this season isn’t in the playoffs imo.

An MVP is award should be, if you remove player X and replace him with ???, how much does it affect your team.  
 

We are seeing the drop off of the pen without him and if people are being honest right now, there really isn’t anyone in the pen that you feel super confident in the playoffs in a high leverage situation.

Edited September 28, 2023 by Sports Guy

[ChipTait]

I voted "Other," because if I had a ballot, I'd say "All of 'em!"

I noticed this morning that they have 8 players with 60+ RBI.

These guys, up and down the lineup, and off the bench, have been the most consistent bunch of ego-less players to ever don the laundry.  Simply a joy to watch all year!

Hand the MVO to all of them as a unit.