TT: DH and 4th outfielder, and last man on the bench situations

[interloper]

I think my main question about Mateo is, does he get good jumps and run good routes? Will he throw to the right base? Hit the cutoff man? I'm skeptical about all of that, so I expect the O's to really put him through his paces in the outfield this spring to figure those things out. 

Not to be a McKenna apologist or anything, but he's steady out there and hits lefties reasonably well. I know the O's want to figure out how Mateo fits better, but I would be cautious to brush McKenna to the side. He's a useful piece. 

Edited February 8 by interloper

[sportsfan8703]

Elias made he comment that we don't want to break in multiple prospects at once.  Well, if we're holding Holliday/Mayo down, then one of Cowser/Kjerstad should take over O'Hearn's role.  I like the idea of Cowser getting the first shot out of ST because he's capabale of playing the OF.  So we could DH Santa and Hays more to keep them fresh.  

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Elias made he comment that we don't want to break in multiple prospects at once.  Well, if we're holding Holliday/Mayo down, then one of Cowser/Kjerstad should take over O'Hearn's role.  I like the idea of Cowser getting the first shot out of ST because he's capabale of playing the OF.  So we could DH Santa and Hays more to keep them fresh.  

When did Elias say that?

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Elias made he comment that we don't want to break in multiple prospects at once.  Well, if we're holding Holliday/Mayo down, then one of Cowser/Kjerstad should take over O'Hearn's role.  I like the idea of Cowser getting the first shot out of ST because he's capabale of playing the OF.  So we could DH Santa and Hays more to keep them fresh.  

I think he cautioned about breaking too many rookies in at once.  I don’t think he put a number on it.  “Multiple” would suggest that 2 is too many and I don’t think he said that.

[CaptainRedbeard]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think my main question about Mateo is, does he get good jumps and run good routes? Will he throw to the right base? Hit the cutoff man? I'm skeptical about all of that, so I expect the O's to really put him through his paces in the outfield this spring to figure those things out. 

Not to be a McKenna apologist or anything, but he's steady out there and hits lefties reasonably well. I know the O's want to figure out how Mateo fits better, but I would be cautious to brush McKenna to the side. He's a useful piece. 

I don’t think McKenna hits lefties better than Mateo. ZIPS projects him for slightly better OBP vs lefties but much worse SLG: .220/.301/.367. Pretty similarly terrible. 

McKenna is an actual OF and can play CF fine, though. I don’t think he’s stellar out there but if Mateo is not better, which he might not be, then McKenna does still have a leg up on him there. 

[Aristotelian]

There should be five outfielders. Mullins, Hays, and Santander are locks. There should be a quasi full time lefty (Cowser or Kjerstad) along with a backup (which could be Mateo doing double duty). 

2 C's. 1B/DH (2) are O'Hearn/Mountcastle. IF (4) are Gunnar, Urias, Westburg, Mateo. That leaves five spots for OF.

One of Kjerstad/Cowser makes it as 4th OF. I would give Kjerstad the edge with perhaps 70% chance of making it. 

We are still short on lefties, so last spot is Holliday, Maton, Hilliard, or Cowser.

I think Cowser likely starts in AAA to get full time AB's if he doesn't beat out Kjerstad. If Mateo can work on outfield defense, that would make Hilliard unnecessary and open a door for Holliday, either on opening day or as soon as we get the extra year of service time with Maton making the team on opening day. 

[Aristotelian]

Just now, CaptainRedbeard said:

I don’t think McKenna hits lefties better than Mateo. ZIPS projects him for slightly better OBP vs lefties but much worse SLG: .220/.301/.367. Pretty similarly terrible. 

McKenna is an actual OF and can play CF fine, though. I don’t think he’s stellar out there but if Mateo is not better, which he might not be, then McKenna does still have a leg up on him there. 

With Urias and Westburg as starters and Mateo the primary backup, we are currently unbalanced toward RHB. I don't really see a path for McKenna unless we start both of Cowser and Kjerstad in AAA.

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

I don’t think McKenna hits lefties better than Mateo. ZIPS projects him for slightly better OBP vs lefties but much worse SLG: .220/.301/.367. Pretty similarly terrible. 

McKenna is an actual OF and can play CF fine, though. I don’t think he’s stellar out there but if Mateo is not better, which he might not be, then McKenna does still have a leg up on him there. 

I personally don't see any scenario that Mateo ends up being a better option in the OF than McKenna.

[spleen1015]

I really don't like the idea of looking for ways to make Mateo more useful. I guess if you make him an OF, you get 2 roster spots essentially from one guy since he can backup INF and OF, but I'd rather just get rid of him. I prefer McKenna in the OF.

For sanity's sake, we really need Holliday to rake in ST and make the club.

I love Elias, but I'm not a fan of getting these meddling players from other teams for cash and they end up taking ABs from prospects who need them. That's what's going to happen with Nevin and Maton. Happened with O'Hearn last year. This year let Kjerstad be the backup 1B/RF and DH 3-4 days a week. Let's see what he's got.

[Orange]

Well we've got Holliday, Mayo, Kjerstad, and Cowser all knocking at the door but we're unsure which (or any) will be on the Opening Day roster.

So, if they are all in Norfolk I'm not sure who our 13th hitter is. I've got Rutschman, Mounty, Westburg, Urias, Henderson, Hays, Mullins, Santander, O'Hearn, McCann, Mateo, and McKenna. That's 12. I suppose this scenario paves the way for Hilliard as #13.

Then throughout the season we add the four rookies, supplanting Hilliard, Mateo, McKenna, and Urias... maybe in that order. With injuries perhaps Urias sticks, and/or whichever right handed backup CF looks better. Mateo is making $2.7m so I'm guessing they want him to find a home as a backup CF.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

@Tony-OH, if the emphasis were primarily on defensive capability as opposed to offensive matchups, who do you think wins those respective battles?

I don't think it will necessarily be only about defense, just someone that can play in the expansive left field in Camden Yards. The guys who can do that on the roster currently are Hays, Cowser, Hilliard, McKenna and probably Mateo though he's only played 9 games (52 innings) out there at the major league level. 

Hilliard graded out very well in statcast defensively and covers good ground for a guy his size so I imagine he may be the best fit though with Mateo's speed, you have to imagine with experience out there he will be good. Cowser needs experience out there and if they send him back to AAA, they need to give him a lot of looks in LF, though that's also what I would do with Norby too. 

Norby is a wildcard in this. If he can show to be competent left fielder, he might be the Hays replacement, with Cowser moving to RF, Kjerstad to DH mostly. 

[Ripken]

30 minutes ago, interloper said:

I personally don't see any scenario that Mateo ends up being a better option in the OF than McKenna.

Probably not.  On the other hand, if it's close, consider that McKenna can't play SS and Mateo is a better pinch runner.  I don't like either player but Mateo looks a lot better on the team if he's doing all those jobs and freeing up the backup-RH-CF roster spot so we can keep another player.  Said differently, I don't want both Mateo and McKenna on the team, especially if Urias and ROH stay put - there's only so many limited backup types we should be carrying.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Matt Bennett said:

I am dubious Mateo can hit LHP to warrant playing time against them. 

Splits in 2023: .746 OPS (LHP) vs. .515 OPS (RHP)

Career Splits: .667 OPS (LHP) vs. .615 OPS (RHP)

Prior to 2023, Mateo's career splits were .624 (LHP) vs. .655 (RHP)

He's just not good at hitting. And I'm dubious he's capable in the outfield after getting so little time there over the years. I remember him making a great catch off the wall but then completely misplaying a catchable ball like an inning later. If he must be on the team, I'd limit his appearances to SS only and see if this 2023 LHP/RHP split holds up. And I hope he has a short leash. 

I would not let one bad play at the wall dictate whether Mateo can play CF effectively or not. He looked very comfortable out there outside of that one play. For a guy who hadn't played there much, I'm not too concerned. He can track flyballs pretty well and we all know he has the speed to make up for any jump or route issues he may have. 

As for the bat, I don't think anyone thinks he's going to bring a lot of value from the bat stand point, but he showed some glimmer of hope last year vs lefties at least. 

I'm comfortable with him starting in CF when Mullins needs a day off against a tough lefty or spelling Gunnar on occasion at SS. I'd rather have him than McKenna for sure.

[ThisIsBirdland]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

I would not let one bad play at the wall dictate whether Mateo can play CF effectively or not. He looked very comfortable out there outside of that one play. For a guy who hadn't played there much, I'm not too concerned. He can track flyballs pretty well and we all know he has the speed to make up for any jump or route issues he may have. 

As for the bat, I don't think anyone thinks he's going to bring a lot of value from the bat stand point, but he showed some glimmer of hope last year vs lefties at least. 

I'm comfortable with him starting in CF when Mullins needs a day off against a tough lefty or spelling Gunnar on occasion at SS. I'd rather have him than McKenna for sure.

I think they really love the late game pinch runner capability he can provide as well. Best of all worlds if he can provide that in a roster spot that also covers the minimally used, backup, RH CF.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

How do you figure Mateo having more range than McKenna?    Even though he’s faster, McKenna is no slouch and Mateo would have to prove to me that he can get reads and jumps than McKenna.  Having said that I do think they hope Mateo can cover center which would make McKenna obsolete.

McKenna is probably a better outfielder right now range wise and he did cover 35.2 ft/sec last year which was the best of his career. We have very little data on Mateo in the outfield (from 2021) so it's tough to say, but he did make this catch in his limited play https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=b6505525-d99e-47a4-9ae7-e507917a8bdf which at least was a 2-star catch. Mateo does have 30.1 ft/sec sprint speed to McKenna's still very good 28.7 ft/sec.

The issue here though is not really whether Mateo is a better defensive outfielder than McKenna, its the fact that the Orioles don't need to carry McKenna because Mateo and Hilliard/Cowser can cover down on CF. If Mateo did not play SS, McKenna would probably be the better outfielder to keep.