Who is exceeding, meeting or failing to meet expectations at the quarter pole?

[Frobby]

Here are my votes.  I didn’t include anyone with less than 50 PA or 15 IP.

Exceeding expectations

Henderson .892 OPS, 2.7 rWAR

Westburg .871 OPS, 1.8 rWAR

Cowser .831 OPS, 0.7 rWAR (ignoring recency bias)

O’Hearn .883 OPS, 1.0 rWAR

Mateo .706 OPS, 0.6 rWAR

Irvin 4-1, 2.90 ERA, 0.9 rWAR

Suarez 2-0, 1.96 ERA, 0.8 rWAR

Webb 0-2, 1.47 ERA, 0.4 rWAR

Akin 1-0, 3.00 ERA, 0.2 rWAR

Coulombe, 0-0, 2.30 ERA, 0.5 rWAR

Meeting expectations

Rutschman .834 OPS, 1.7 rWAR

Mountcastle .797 OPS, 1.2 rWAR

Santander .731 OPS, 0.5 rWAR

McCann .541 OPS, - 0.5 rWAR

Burnes 3-2, 2.68 ERA, 1.0 rWAR

Kremer 3-3, 3.73 ERA, -0.2 rWAR

Rodriguez 4-1, 3.71 ERA, 0.3 rWAR

Cano 2-1, 2.21 ERA, 0.4 rWAR

Baumann 1-0, 4.02 ERA, -0.1 rWAR

Failing to meet expectations 

Mullins .592 OPS, 0.4 rWAR

Urias .492 OPS, 0.0 rWAR

Hays .311 OPS, -0.9 rWAR

Wells 0-2, 5.87 ERA, -0.3 rWAR

Kimbrel 4-1, 3.86 ERA, 8 saves, 3 blown saves, 0.0 rWAR

 

Obviously, many of these are debatable, and largely depend what your expectations were to begin with.  For example, Adley is having an excellent season, but I expect excellence from him.  He’s probably exceeding my expectations a little, but not enough to put him in the exceeding expectations category.  My expectations for Baumann were low, and he’s doing about what I expected.  

Bottom line, we have more guys exceeding expectations than failing to meet them, but there’s plenty of room for improvement   

 

[spleen1015]

I agree with a lot of what you have there. My only changes/additions are:

Santander is failing to meet expections for me. I wasn't expecting these month long slumps like he had in April.

I would add Holliday to the list as failing to meet expectations. I don't think that's a bad thing. I expected him to be on the OD roster and be passed the "First time in the majors, so I'm not going to be very good for 100 ABs or so" period most players go through. I also didn't expect he would be as bad as he was.

[Tony-OH]

Might be nit picking but you have to have low expectations for McCann for him to "meet expectations" while OPsing .541 and being worth -0.5 rWAR. He's playing like a guy who is at the end of the road at 33-years old.

[Roy Firestone]

I dont think you can overlook RECENT Cowser.He has really gone into a funk. I guess he's still a plus...but not for much longer if he keeps struggling.

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

I dont think you can overlook RECENT Cowser.He has really gone into a funk. I guess he's still a plus...but not for much longer if he keeps struggling.

That’s not how the game is played.  No parting gift for you but you still get the board version of “Frobby’s Expectations”

[waroriole]

I’d say Cano is exceeding and Santander is below expectations. 

[sportsfan8703]

The OF and Kimbrel. Those are our weaknesses. 

[Malike]

I agree overall with the list and that there is plenty of room for improvement, I also think there is plenty of room for regression and that's not recency bias. Several of the names that are exceeding could be put on the below expectations in a months time.

[Redgrape]

Corbin Burnes is the 2nd favorite to win the Cy Young and we think he is only meeting expectations?

[Malike]

Just now, Redgrape said:

Corbin Burnes is the 2nd favorite to win the Cy Young and we think he is only meeting expectations?

He is looked at as one of the best pitchers in baseball, it's hard to exceed those expectations. What would be the next level up? God mode?

[Aristotelian]

To avoid "recency bias" I would put Cowser on *both* exceeded and below expectations lists. He massively exceeded expectations for April and has almost (but not quite) as massively underperformed in May. Overall, I guess you could say that he had such a great April that he is still outperforming overall, but arguably that "ignores the trend line". Rather than get into whether the trend line or overall production is the better metric, just put him on both lists and say he has been really good and really bad.

[TommyPickles]

I think Adley is exceeding expectations.

[wildcard]

Kimbrel is interesting.   IMO his expectation is probably set by what he did last year.  Here is him at the quarter pole times 4 compared to last year.

2023.   8-6,   3.28 ERA,   71 G,     23 S,   28 SO,  69 IP,  94 K,  .181 avg,   1.04 WHIP

2024.  16-4.   3.86 ERA.   76 G,   32 S,  44 SO,   65.1 IP,  100K,  .193 avg,   1.22 WHIP

The things that stands out to me are  16 wins, 32 saves and 44 save opportunities.   All much higher than in 2023.

Edited May 14 by wildcard

[Malike]

8 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

To avoid "recency bias" I would put Cowser on *both* exceeded and below expectations lists. He massively exceeded expectations for April and has almost (but not quite) as massively underperformed in May. Overall, I guess you could say that he had such a great April that he is still outperforming overall, but arguably that "ignores the trend line". Rather than get into whether the trend line or overall production is the better metric, just put him on both lists and say he has been really good and really bad.

Yeah at some point the scorching hot start will be overshadowed by his ice-cold period. From March-April 15th he had a wRC+ of 258 and 1.297 OPS and a BABIP of .500

From April 16 to May 13 He's had a wRC+ of 74 and .580 OPS with a BABIP of .233 so a bit unlucky, but not nearly as big a swing as he was with the luck in March through April 15th. 

At some point, you have to be concerned that he doesn't make the adjustment back. I'm sure we'll know more in another months time and hopefully, he settles somewhere in the middle. I said much earlier during his scorching hot streak that I would be happy with a .780 OPS out of him, I think I'd take the under going forward for the rest of the year.

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Redgrape said:

Corbin Burnes is the 2nd favorite to win the Cy Young and we think he is only meeting expectations?

Who is publishing favorites to win the Cy Young Award?   If Burnes is 2nd, it’s not because he’s been the second best pitcher in the league so far, it’s because he’s done reasonably well and people think he’ll do even better for the rest of the year.  Anyway, if you expect a guy to be among the top 5-6 pitchers in the league and he does that, then he’s meeting expectations.