John Sickel's Take on the '10 O's Draft

[PBR Street Gang]

COMMENT: I love the Machado pick, but the rest of the draft strikes me as...I'm not sure what the word is. I originally wrote "uninspired," but that's too strong. This isn't a BAD draft. Klein is a good third rounder and could get beyond role player status, but I don't see Mummey as more than a reserve at this point. I like Bywater's pitchability, but Anderson strikes me as the kind of college arm that will perhaps never live up to its potential. Narron, Sawyer, and Bridwell all have signability issues. All could develop into fine players, but it will take a lot of time. Schrader has some heat and I like him. There are some additional signability fliers in the later rounds; if they could pull in one of those guys it would help. There is just something about this draft that I can't put my finger on...it's good, I like several picks, but there's just something missing.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/6/14/1516429/baltimore-orioles-draft-review

Discuss.....

[Skywalker76]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/6/14/1516429/baltimore-orioles-draft-review

Discuss.....

As most have been already saying on this board: In 3-4 years we will know better but with the draft a ballclub such as the Orioles would need to have it looks disappointing.

[clapdiddy]

I'm not surprised by this assessment.

I'm no draft expert, but by reading some of the posts here, it appears as if we passed over some good talent on our 3rd pick that may have been a better fit than a guy who projects as a relief pitcher.

I'm not quite sure what the plan was for this draft, but it sure seems like we could have done better.

[Frobby]

Seems like a fair enough assessment. I have yet to hear of any national writer who is flipping cartwheels over this draft. I think in the end this draft will be defined by how good Machado turns out to be. If he's an all star quality SS, nothing else will matter much. If he's not an impact player at the major league level, then this draft will be considered mediocre.

[Duke2010]

My initial thoughts on this draft was that it was a solid, yet unspectacular draft. If we are able to sign everyone in our top 10, plus make serious runs at guys like Austin Urban and Joe Robinson, then the initial grade takes a slight upward step.

Given that the only way this organization adds talent (outside of a few trades) is through the draft, I don't think we did enough to stock the system with high quality depth. Sure, we drafted a few nice pieces with potential, but relative to other teams in our division, I don't think our draft stands out. Outside of Machado, who should be the best new prospect in the AL East, I don't think we did enough to separate ourselves from the pack. Heck, just look at our draft compared to the Red Sox. They were absolutely masterful IMO.

So while it was an okay draft, I don't think enough was done to bring back any competitive balance our way.

[ThisIsOurHouse]

Although the success of our draft ultimately falls on Machado's shoulders, I think Connor Narron can be a major sleeper in this draft. He will be an overslot because of his commitment to UNC, but he is worth signing. I know his low batting average raises concerns, but I'm sure if it was a major concern major league teams wouldnot be scouting him and national programs such as UNC would not be handing out him scholarships. The reports say he is fundamentally sound and has a good eye at the plate. Hopefully he can fill out his frame and increase his power as we then can move him to 3B.

Although this draft hasn't wow'd many beat writers we did a good job restocking our position players guys like Machado, Narron, Mummey, Nowak, and Sawyer.

[Sports Guy]

What is missing is exactly what Tony said...No one, outside of Machado, in the top 10 really jumps out at you as an Arrieta type guy IMO.

I like the Klein pick but would rather see him go to the pen now and be up next year but they aren't going to do that...So, IMO, we won't be getting any help from this draft until at least 2012 and more likely 2013.

[mcgraw238]

What is missing is exactly what Tony said...No one, outside of Machado, in the top 10 really jumps out at you as an Arrieta type guy IMO.

I like the Klein pick but would rather see him go to the pen now and be up next year but they aren't going to do that...So, IMO, we won't be getting any help from this draft until at least 2012 and more likely 2013.

I'm thinking Jordan is operating under constraints. I know he has said that is not the case but it seems that allocating so much to Machado is forcing him to go safer later in the draft. Perhaps I'm wrong and Jordan & Co. did thier due diligence and correctly had many of these guys rated higher than the industry. It just seems there were some opportunities to add higher upside guys.

[Owatcher]

what if machado doesn't want to play for the o's at all? then what will this draft look like? scary.

[bluehens45]

What is missing is exactly what Tony said...No one, outside of Machado, in the top 10 really jumps out at you as an Arrieta type guy IMO.

I like the Klein pick but would rather see him go to the pen now and be up next year but they aren't going to do that...So, IMO, we won't be getting any help from this draft until at least 2012 and more likely 2013.

I absolutely agree. Its nothing overwhelming. No real power bats. AGAIN! Im just not a big fan. I dont see any Coffey's or Arrieta's. I know its early and cant be judged for years but im just really not blown away with anyone but Machado. Im just not overly impressed, esp. passing on guys like Paxton, Cole, Hahn, Rutledge, Dyson, Morris, Blair, Osich, Wilson, Smelter, and Linton. We all know unless we overpay big time no FA's are coming to Baltimore. All im saying is that the draft is about the only time we are on a semi even playing field compared to the rest of league (besides the horrible Gonzo move costing us our 2nd). We should be making the most of it and drafting BPA. We just didnt seem to go BPA or draft any major college bats.

[psk3170]

I'm thinking Jordan is operating under constraints. I know he has said that is not the case but it seems that allocating so much to Machado is forcing him to go safer later in the draft. Perhaps I'm wrong and Jordan & Co. did thier due diligence and correctly had many of these guys rated higher than the industry. It just seems there were some opportunities to add higher upside guys.

I think you are right about the constraints. Look how signable many of the picks were after Machado. Look how many senior draft picks they took. In defense of jordon the lack of a second rounder hurt in what appears a very shallow draft talent wise to me when I compare it to other years. Their did not seem to be as many wow or toolsy projectable players outside the top 200 like it seemed in other years.

[hoosiers]

I think the assessment is a fair one and seems to reflect what we are hearing from others. Jordan took a lot of interesting guys, several signability guys and may end up spending quite a bit on this bunch, but we seem to walk about with fewer "consensus national" talents that the media would expect given our spend. There also seems to be a fair amount of talent that will take time to get to the bigs.

We'll see.

[Jammer7]

I think it's a fair assessment of the 2010 draft. It seems like every year we hear the same type of thoughts on a Joe Jordan draft. Atleast the last few it seems. Seems like most experts never like JJ's drafts beyond picking Wieters and Matusz. I actually think this draft will eventually be one of Joe's better ones when all is said and done.

I think Machado is the real deal. I also think that Connor Narron will be just fine, low hs batting average or not. I really like the Mummey pick, but the tools and stats don't tell his story. I'm not a big fan of the Anderson pick, but I really like the Bywater pick. If they sign Sawyer, Bridwell and Schrader, those three are great value. I think Schrader could really move quickly.

But, my defining pick of this draft is Klein. I can see why JJ believes in him as a starter. Very athletic, great size, repeats his delivery with what seems to be a clean arm action. Reminded me of Arrieta some. I have not seen him live, but I like what I have seen of him on video. If he is able to move back to a starting role, and he can stay healthy, I think he is a steal. Those are big IF's, especially considering the recent fortunes of O's draft picks.

On another note, the player development side of things had better start developing some of the kids JJ has brought into the organization. I know the injuries have killed us this year, but JJ has taken some risks that will define his success here. Is Zach Britton the only high school kid drafted, signed and developed in the JJ era (five years) that is a top level prospect? (I'm not buying Snyder as a top level prospect right now, not for a year now.) That is absolutely embarrassing.

[Stotle]

Honest question. How much weight are you giving to this write-up if in his own words he can't put his finger on what he doesn't like? To me, that's right up there with "don't ask me why, but my gut says he's going to be a good one."

Sickels has a long history on the prospecting scene, but his draft reviews (in my opinion) lack insight.

[QBsILLEST1]

Honest question. How much weight are you giving to this write-up if in his own words he can't put his finger on what he doesn't like? To me, that's right up there with "don't ask me why, but my gut says he's going to be a good one."

Sickels has a long history on the prospecting scene, but his draft reviews (in my opinion) lack insight.

Thank you Stotle for some voice of reason....

IMO, of course we didn't take the big names from the national publications, but we took some good value guys. Machado is the best pick we have had in a couple of years, after that, you can say that the draft overall lacks the upside of other recent ones. BUT, we have some high risk high reward guys here IMO like Sawyer, Narron, Anderson, Robinson, Urban etc. Bywater adds some solid safety as a LHP with average stuff except a good changeup and good command who will be a ML starting pitcher. Looks like at best he is a mid rotation guy, but could also be a backender. I need to see how good his command is, how good his changeup is and what kind of movement his FB has.....

Overall, we took some head scratchers like Mummey, but there are some solid picks sprinkled in there. We didn't have an elite draft, but it wasn't poor, and a lot will depend on what overslotters we snag.....