Zaaaaaaaach !!!

[DrungoHazewood]

Again, it's mindset. If having Britton in the rotation means that we win series against our toughest opponents, vs. losing them, then this team will have a lot more positive outlook going into May.

The team has to actually win and experience winning before you worry about sustaining that winning, and certainly after 2016, when this entire core group will likely be replaced save for Britton.

If we extend Britton like other teams have extended their younger pitchers such as Detroit with Verlander and Florida with Josh Johnson, then none of this matters one iota except for having to pay him a little more.

And to have the best players out there to get this team on a winning track for the first time in 13 seasons, you bet I'm willing to pay him extra if he can try to help us beat the Rays, Rangers, Yankees and Twins to start the season.

I'm certainly more than willing to risk a fraction of a win and its impact on a small, hypothetical change in mindset, over a real year of team control over what we hope is an excellent pitcher.

It is 4 for the 3rd starter which Britton is competing for now and what I am advocating.

The Rays on the 3rd, Rangers on the 8th, Yankees on the 14th, and Twins on the 18th

And if you look at the numbers both Bergesen and Tillman have against those teams you'll see why there's a potential to go 0-4.

Yes, that's what you'd think if you'd previously come to the conclusion that you wanted Britton in the rotation right this very second and desperately needed to come up with some kind of argument that made that position look a teeny bit less insane.

[DrungoHazewood]

And over 4 starts, considering the other teams playing, lineups and everything except the difference between Tillman/Bergy and Britton, what is the sum delta win probabilities?

I bet it's in the 1 win range, generously.

[Edit: Considering really good teams with 60% of their games and really bad teams win 40% of their games, I'd bet the difference between a rookie like Britton and a guy like Tillman is in the 10%-20% range, at best. So, I know we could get more complicated than this, but you're basically advocating for 1/2 to 1 win, as opposed to having control for a full season.]

Of course he's arguing over a fraction of one win, but presenting it that way makes his argument completely untenable. So he's reduced to making a case that the highly unlikely is, in fact, 100% certain.

[JTrea81]

If they send him down BTW, they lied to his face:

Yeah, definitely," he said. "Coming in, they told me it was a competition. I was going to work on stuff, but at the same time I knew it was competition and I felt like I came out here and competed and gave myself a good chance to make the team."

And then there's this:

Yeah, it's very frustrating, because as an athlete you compete and you feel like you deserve to be somewhere," he said. "When you're not, it's kind of a slap in the face, I think."

http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roch/2011/03/britton-on-britton-1.html

Why piss off a guy that you want to do well and succeed? It's not fair to him or the team to keep him down despite his performance and especially because they told him it was a competition. It sends a bad message. Why work hard if they are just going to lie to you and send you down anyway?

I think many people forget the human aspect of this game and are just concentrating on the finances.

[Frobby]

Of course he's arguing over a fraction of one win, but presenting it that way makes his argument completely untenable. So he's reduced to making a case that the highly unlikely is, in fact, 100% certain.

I don't like talking in terms of a "fraction of a win." You either win a game or you don't. The possible outcomes are +3, +2, +1, even, -1, -2 or -3 in the three (not four) starts Britton would miss. If you assume that Britton is good enough that the team will win 2/3 of his starts (that is ace material), and the other starter is bad enough that the team will win only 1/3 of his starts (that is a very bad pitcher), then over three starts the likelihood is the team will win one less game. But, the actual outcome could be anywhere from +3 to -3. The odds of it being +3 are very small -- about a 1% chance of that occurring.

[Say O!]

Yep, it was a competition. And Britton earned the right to be recalled on April 21st, whereas he was probably down until mid-season before his spring performance.

[JTrea81]

Yep, it was a competition. And Britton earned the right to be recalled on April 21st, whereas he was probably down until mid-season before his spring performance.

It was a competition to make the team out of Spring Training.

If he doesn't despite his numbers, he was lied to.

[Frobby]

Why piss off a guy that you want to do well and succeed?

Way to use selective quotes. The overall gist of the article is that Zach will be disappointed if he doesn't make the team, but that he understands the business reasons. He is not going to be pissed off, that is just you projecting your own short-sighted view on this situation.

[JTrea81]

Way to use selective quotes. The overall gist of the article is that Zach will be disappointed if he doesn't make the team, but that he understands the business reasons. He is not going to be pissed off, that is just you projecting your own short-sighted view on this situation.

No he'll be pissed off, but he'll deal with it so he can get to the majors.

You don't use "slap in the face" if you are "disappointed."

Britton was pretty ticked the last time he got passed over for a promotion in September.

[fansince71]

Come on Trea, the way you post, you make it seem as though your a close personal friend of Zach that confides in you regularly.:scratchchinhmm:

[Ven6]

Britton was pretty ticked the last time he got passed over for a promotion in September.

Yeah he really let his ST suffer because of it.

[jrobb21613]

The bottom line is!!! If the orginazation told Britton he was in comptetion to make the rotation out of spring training then like I said in another thread he better D*@m sure be!!!! He deserves it he was hands down our best pitcher and faced some pretty touch lineups this spring. You don't tell a kid that and then say oh no we have to wait so we have control over you for another year. I can tell you what if it was me i would be beyond ticked off!!!

[Pedro Cerrano]

The bottom line is!!! If the orginazation told Britton he was in comptetion to make the rotation out of spring training then like I said in another thread he better D*@m sure be!!!! He deserves it he was hands down our best pitcher and faced some pretty touch lineups this spring. You don't tell a kid that and then say oh no we have to wait so we have control over you for another year. I can tell you what if it was me i would be beyond ticked off!!!

In six months, nobody will care about this.

[makoman]

It was a competition to make the team out of Spring Training.

If he doesn't despite his numbers, he was lied to.

Did they tell him "If you pitch better than Chris T and Brad B you will make the team."

Or did they tell him "You will have a chance to make the team based on a competition between all of you in the spring."

These are two different things, you have no idea what was said, and a man who just hired Scott Boras two months ago understands that the business side has a huge impact on things, and shouldn't be pissed off at business decisions that clearly and unequivocally benefit the team.

[Sports Guy]

I forgot about the Boras factor...That makes this decision a complete no brainer.

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't like talking in terms of a "fraction of a win." You either win a game or you don't. The possible outcomes are +3, +2, +1, even, -1, -2 or -3 in the three (not four) starts Britton would miss. If you assume that Britton is good enough that the team will win 2/3 of his starts (that is ace material), and the other starter is bad enough that the team will win only 1/3 of his starts (that is a very bad pitcher), then over three starts the likelihood is the team will win one less game. But, the actual outcome could be anywhere from +3 to -3. The odds of it being +3 are very small -- about a 1% chance of that occurring.

And the contribution of the starting pitcher to each of those decisions is but a fraction of the whole.