Bundy pitching for Frederick Keys tonight.

[sportsfan8703]

Josh Hader or Adam Loewen or Brian Matusz? I'll take a guy like Norris for 2.5 years all day over the potential of Hader. Plus Hader was already a bonus by our scouting department and we got MAX value for him. Sometime it's good when trades work out for both teams.

[hoosiers]

I really dislike comments implying that Josh Hader was found $ as a 19th round pick or "only potential" as a guy in A ball. He is what he is - a quality prospect. Hader would net more in trade this year than last - something not unforeseen at the time of the trade, IMO. Whether he makes the majors or not, he's an asset that has appreciated a good amount.

Norris was around a career 98 ERA+ guy at the time we traded for him. His stuff may have improved or might play up with our better defense, but he was a league average guy acquired to be just that - an average pitcher at the 5 to replace the mediocrity we had at the bottom of our rotation for the first half of last year.

The final word on that trade won't be known for several years, and the team acquiring the major league players normally (obviously) benefits first, but not necessarily most.

[eb45]

It seems to me that it is lost on some posters that Hader was a great pick. It is also true that the trade was at least a very good trade for the Orioles. We got great value for a 19th round pick and traded a lot of maybe for a much more proven Now asset in Norris. Some good prospects have to be traded to fill needs, especially when your a winning team. I mean the A's just traded Addison Russell a guy who is likely to be a star. But the A's got what they needed and the Russell pick is a settled transaction now, i.e. the Russell pick was successful. Over the long view the A's might lose this trade but they are close enough to make the deal and try to win it all this year. If Bud Norris helps the O's win the AL East this year or next year then That is one hell of a good value for a 19th round pick even with the supplemental pick going also. There comes a time where you are going to have to pay some of the future for today. Thankfully it appears that the O's have positioned themselves to get some talent back with there own FAs over the next couple of years. Anyone that can't see that the current FO is so much better at working to get quality assets than the pre-AM regimes just does not want to see it.

The problem is that the Norris trade was buying high and selling low, in addition to overpaying. Like, okay, acquiring quality assets is one thing: I've loved the Cruz signing since the day it was announced, I'm still a fan of the Ubaldo signing, etc. But Norris, at his absolute best, is a league average starter. When the O's traded for him, I hated it, because I thought he'd regress and wouldn't help the O's make the playoffs. He regressed, and they didn't make the playoffs.

This year, he's been fine, but he's primed for another regression. If the Orioles do win the AL East, Norris won't be a primary reason. He's not Jeff Samardzija. He's not even Jason Hammel. He's a #5 starter. If they'd dealt Hader, Hoes, and the pick for a #2 or #3 starter, that would be a fine trade. But a #5 starter is expendable. They're not assets you look to acquire for a stretch run.

Norris' issues are well documented at this point, so I'm not going to go into them in depth, but suffice it to say he's basically hit his absolute ceiling and he's not going to increase in value, especially as time runs out on his team-controlled years. On the other hand, hoosiers is absolutely right: Hader's value is much higher now than it was a year ago. That's the difference between the Norris and Feldman trades: while neither represented enough of an addition to get the O's to the playoffs, Arrieta and Strop appeared to have reached the limit of their value to the Orioles. Likewise, Gabriel Lino's value has never matched where it was when the O's traded him, even if it was for Jim Thome. Hader absolutely had not maxed out his value. Maybe he blows out his elbow and never turns into anything, but regardless, it was (a) overpaying for a marginal upgrade, (b) targeting a player likely to regress, and © trading an exciting prospect before he reached anywhere near peak value.

Also, the Astros took Derek Fisher with that #37 pick. Derek Fisher is very good. That's another asset that has appreciated in value.

I don't think Duquette is a bad GM, rather, I think he's one of the better ones. But the Norris trade is highly questionable, and comparing it to the Samardzija trade makes no sense because Jeff Samardzija is a genuine difference-maker, and Bud Norris is a #5 starter.

[hoosiers]

I really like the job Duquette has done here.

Norris shows signs of developing a much better change than I expected him to show which gives him more of a shot to defend himself against lefties which means he could become a #3/4 rather than a #5.

Norris is a Showalter guy who represents the Orioles well. Hard nosed, cares, etc...

I have never seen Hader pitch.

All that acknowledged, eb45, Hoosiers, Flosman, etc are right. This wasn't a smart trade. I don't think it was awful, but it wasn't good asset mgmt or a proper valuation of risk/reward. I could reasonably argue that Norris very, very marginally increases the Orioles chances of going to the play-offs this year and his value could have been found for no assets other than cash on the FA market if we thought we needed another starter (Hammel anyone?). That alone makes the fact that we don't have Hader in our system as an asset a gaffe, though not a huge one.

DD is a trader of assets and there will be good moves and mediocre ones. I am fine with that. My problem with the Norris trade is that it was fairly ill-conceived given what we gave up and what we got (a career ERA+ 98er). Our organizational talent base would be stronger today with Hader and the pick than it is with Norris IMO and that's the most important part of this TODAY - which really makes meaningless the comments that Hader was found $. Frankly, fans here treated the supplemental pick as found $ as well - as if the ORIGIN of the assets was more important than their actual value. I'd like to trade with that guy every day. BTW, I believe there were comments of multiple teams being in on Bud, so if we won a bidding war, it hints both of interest in the pitcher (some justification for our FO) and the idea that we overpaid.

The other issue for me with acquiring Norris and Jimenez and all this starting pitching "depth" is that it has delayed the appropriate major league use of the organization's best healthy pitcher - Kevin Gausman. Our FO seems to be going to great lengths to extend KG's service clock and while an extra year of Kevin Gausman is awesome, it has not been without costs (in terms of the w-l record to date, salaries given to Norris/Jimenez, and the assets used/lost to acquire them).

[OriolesMagic83]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/32094/dylan-bundy

News: Bundy (elbow) will be limited to 75 pitches per start for the rest of the season, CSN Baltimore's Rich Dubroff reports. "That's something we are probably not going to waver from," manager Buck Showalter said. "We probably could if we had to. I'm kind of cautious when people bring up Bundy as an option at some point. First he's got to figure out the Carolina League a little bit." (Tue Jul 8)

Spin: He will throw his second rehab game for Double-A Frederick on Thursday, which will be his fifth rehab game overall. Showalter didn't sound like he was in a hurry to get Bundy up with the Orioles, which likely limits his value in single-season leagues, but he remains one of the best pitching prospects in baseball.

[Frobby]

I really dislike comments implying that Josh Hader was found $ as a 19th round pick or "only potential" as a guy in A ball. He is what he is - a quality prospect. Hader would net more in trade this year than last - something not unforeseen at the time of the trade, IMO. Whether he makes the majors or not, he's an asset that has appreciated a good amount.

I agree with the first two sentences. I don't care where Hader was drafted, by July 2013 it was apparent that he was a very good prospect, posting a 2.65 ERA in Delmarva with 8.4 K/9 as a 19-year old already playing full season ball. As to the third sentence, I can't say whether it was foreseen that he would have even more value this year -- I don't know if it could have been expected that his K rate would climb to 9.8 and his WHIP would decline to 1.11 while playing in a hitter-friendly environment. But there he is, and so he is certainly more valuable today than he was last July.

As to the trade, I know you hated it, and the other trades we made last summer. A lot depends on your view of how serious a contender the Orioles were last summer when those trades got made, and how much you think Norris will help us this year and next. For me, I felt the price was pretty steep, but I was OK with it. How I will feel about it in hindsight depends a lot on what happens with Norris and the team over the next two years. I've certainly been pleased with his contribution this season so far, moreso than last year. And while Hader has been even better than expected, LJ Hoes has not developed as the Astros probably hoped, though there's still time for him to do so.

[hoosiers]

My first thought when hearing the Norris trade last year was ... "I think this guy is an available free agent in my American League only fantasy league. How is it possible we gave up a supplemental first?" It is just too difficult to ponder the calculus of our front office that was so misguided to reconcile the asset we received with what we gave up (including international slots) in this trade - let alone my misgivings about how poorly the FO judged our competitive position. It is as if our FO said, if you let us keep Bundy, Gausman, EdRod and Walker, you can have multiple pieces of what remains.

For those counting at home, that's three SPs our FO has acquired to put in front of Gausman for nearly a year. Another thought that is not very comforting, IMO.

Yet here we sit in first place so we'll see how it goes and how it ends. I truly hope it ends well, especially since I think we will be parting with even more minor league talent in the next few weeks. DD said the major league team would be competitive while he built up the farm, but he is really letting us down regarding the second part of that equation IMO.

[Stotle]

My first thought when hearing the Norris trade last year was ... "I think this guy is an available free agent in my American League only fantasy league. How is it possible we gave up a supplemental first?" It is just too difficult to ponder the calculus of our front office that was so misguided to reconcile the asset we received with what we gave up (including international slots) in this trade - let alone my misgivings about how poorly the FO judged our competitive position. It is as if our FO said, if you let us keep Bundy, Gausman, EdRod and Walker, you can have multiple pieces of what remains.

For those counting at home, that's three SPs our FO has acquired to put in front of Gausman for nearly a year. Another thought that is not very comforting, IMO.

Yet here we sit in first place so we'll see how it goes and how it ends. I truly hope it ends well, especially since I think we will be parting with even more minor league talent in the next few weeks. DD said the major league team would be competitive while he built up the farm, but he is really letting us down regarding the second part of that equation IMO.

Really strong post; agree with it whole-heartedly. I am really clinging to hope that Baltimore can make a run this year, because I think it gets more difficult next year when Boston/New York revamp. After that, I am deathly afraid this team is faced with many more holes to fill than it has money/in-house options to address them.

[xian4]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Bundy 15 pitches to pick up a 1-2-3 inning. 0-0 after 1 stanza</p>— Frederick Keys (@FrederickKeys) <a href="

">July 10, 2014</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Guest]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Per <a href="https://twitter.com/salemredsox">@salemredsox</a>: Bundy's <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/s?src=hash">#s</a>: 3+ IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3, ER, 2 K, 2 BB, 73 pitches, 44 strikes.</p>— Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) <a href="

">July 11, 2014</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[PaulFolk]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Bundy 15 pitches to pick up a 1-2-3 inning. 0-0 after 1 stanza</p>— Frederick Keys (@FrederickKeys) <a href="

">July 10, 2014</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Don't think I've ever heard an inning referred to as a "stanza" before. Very poetic.

[SteveO]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Per <a href="https://twitter.com/salemredsox">@salemredsox</a>: Bundy's <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/s?src=hash">#s</a>: 3+ IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3, ER, 2 K, 2 BB, 73 pitches, 44 strikes.</p>— Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) <a href="

">July 11, 2014</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Not a great start which means the shortsighted will ramp up calls to trade him for whatever will help now. That would be a huge mistake IMO. Bundy will be fine. A year from competitive pitching takes some time to get the feel again. No shock he is having some issues IMO

Pretty sure DD is not shortsighted though thankfully.

[waroriole]

Don't think I've ever heard an inning referred to as a "stanza" before. Very poetic.

Really? I thought that was a common term

The results aren't a big deal right now. Glad to see him healthy and hope he can begin to add velocity.

[SteveO]

Really? I thought that was a common term

The results aren't a big deal right now. Glad to see him healthy and hope he can begin to add velocity.

He will. Bundy is one prospect that I feel supremely confident in. If he fails it will not be for lack of work ethic, effort or inability to follow instruction.

[eb45]

I agree with the first two sentences. I don't care where Hader was drafted, by July 2013 it was apparent that he was a very good prospect, posting a 2.65 ERA in Delmarva with 8.4 K/9 as a 19-year old already playing full season ball. As to the third sentence, I can't say whether it was foreseen that he would have even more value this year -- I don't know if it could have been expected that his K rate would climb to 9.8 and his WHIP would decline to 1.11 while playing in a hitter-friendly environment. But there he is, and so he is certainly more valuable today than he was last July.

I certainly expected it, having seen him pitch. That's why I said that I was wondering what info Duquette had on him, because either it was really poor risk/reward assessment and asset management, which aren't traits I'd generally ascribe to Duquette, or the O's had Hader valued way less than I would have thought.