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Analyzing the leadoff spot

25 Nuggets

By 25 Nuggets
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25 Nuggets Hangout Grand Counsel

25 Nuggets

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One of the things we all want is an improvement at the lead off position. Right now we're looking squarely at Alejandro De Aza. Here are his stats:

Career/162 - 623 PA, .268/.330/.403, 150 hits, 29 2B, 7 3B, 11 HR, 23 SB, 10 CS

Orioles 2014 - 89 PA, .293/.341/.537, 24 hits, 5 2B, 3 3B, 3 HR, 2 SB, 3 CS

I guess that doesn't look all too hot, though the Oriole numbers look more like a #3 hitter. How would a career average season have compared with the lead off hitters of the AL in 2014?

AL 2014 - 11294 PA, .268/.326/.392, 2754 hits, 521 2B, 93 3B, 187 HR, 339 SB, 112 CS

A .326 OBP is lower than I expected. De Aza compares favorably to this league-average lead off hitter. His rate stats are a tick better, his triple rate is significantly better (1.12% to 0.82%) and his SB ratio is worse (70.0% to 75.2%).

Now, if De Aza can continue to hit well as an Oriole for whatever reason, he would be an above-average lead off man. There won't be much of an opportunity to improve on that. So considering the options available, I would be fine with the team nabbing a #5 hitter and giving De Aza a shot.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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One of the things we all want is an improvement at the lead off position. Right now we're looking squarely at Alejandro De Aza. Here are his stats:

Career/162 - 623 PA, .268/.330/.403, 150 hits, 29 2B, 7 3B, 11 HR, 23 SB, 10 CS

Orioles 2014 - 89 PA, .293/.341/.537, 24 hits, 5 2B, 3 3B, 3 HR, 2 SB, 3 CS

I guess that doesn't look all too hot, though the Oriole numbers look more like a #3 hitter. How would a career average season have compared with the lead off hitters of the AL in 2014?

AL 2014 - 11294 PA, .268/.326/.392, 2754 hits, 521 2B, 93 3B, 187 HR, 339 SB, 112 CS

A .326 OBP is lower than I expected. De Aza compares favorably to this league-average lead off hitter. His rate stats are a tick better, his triple rate is significantly better (1.12% to 0.82%) and his SB ratio is worse (70.0% to 75.2%).

Now, if De Aza can continue to hit well as an Oriole for whatever reason, he would be an above-average lead off man. There won't be much of an opportunity to improve on that. So considering the options available, I would be fine with the team nabbing a #5 hitter and giving De Aza a shot.

Steve Pearce. Or David Lough.

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25 Nuggets Hangout Grand Counsel

25 Nuggets

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Pearce led the team in OBP last year, 30 points better than Markakis.

I think ideally, being a RH hitter he should bat #2 with AJ batting cleanup. Unfortunately the team doesn't have a LH/SH guy that can bat 3rd (looking at you Chris Davis). If they did, everything would fall in line with Davis/Wieters batting 5th and 7th. The fantasy lineup for the Orioles would look like this:

L De Aza

R Pearce

L/S (theoretical superstar)

R Jones

L Davis or S Wieters

R Machado or Hardy

S Wieters or L Davis

R Hardy or Machado

R Schoop

Imagine say, Joey Votto batting 3rd with Pearce in RF and Davis the DH. No three in a row on either side, and a ton of offense top to bottom. Ah well, we can dream.

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bobmc Hangout Grand Counsel

bobmc

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Steve Pearce. Or David Lough.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p><a href="https://twitter.com/DLOrioles">@DLOrioles</a> putting in work and already looking in spring training shape! <a href="http://t.co/mldkEiAXwO">pic.twitter.com/mldkEiAXwO</a></p>— Tim Fitzpatrick (@tfitz31) <a href="

">December 15, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p><a href="https://twitter.com/DLOrioles">@DLOrioles</a> putting in work and already looking in spring training shape! <a href="http://t.co/mldkEiAXwO">pic.twitter.com/mldkEiAXwO</a></p>— Tim Fitzpatrick (@tfitz31) <a href="
">December 15, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Stay concussion free and there is your answer.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Pearce led the team in OBP last year, 30 points better than Markakis.
And he is a much better base runner. His power potential gets him walked as well.

I wouldn't count on Pearce having an OBP that is higher than Markakis. I'd rather have him a bit lower in the order.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Because he has 2% body fat? The guy does not get on base often enough to be a comfortable lead off hitter, at least so far in his career. His value is defense.

Jury's out on Lough, IMO. His overall OBP isn't good but he did post .389 from June on (only 99 PA, though). He certainly has the speed you'd like. He's not a particularly good base stealer but he does well advancing when others get hits behind him (60% extra bases taken). I'd be willing to let him have some opportunities at the top of the order to see how it goes.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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Jury's out on Lough, IMO. His overall OBP isn't good but he did post .389 from June on (only 99 PA, though). He certainly has the speed you'd like. He's not a particularly good base stealer but he does well advancing when others get hits behind him (60% extra bases taken). I'd be willing to let him have some opportunities at the top of the order to see how it goes.

You would think Brady could help him with the steals as well.

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