Offseason

[mrbig1]

I no longer live in the great state of Maryland so I'm out of the loop on a lot of O's news. Just one question? What will our team look like this offseason. Who will stay and who will go and what holes need to be filled.

[duffaphonic]

Buck always says look at the track record.

[mrbig1]

Here's the problem. The only thing I do know P.A. will not open his wallet for a good F.A. or two.

[25 Nuggets]

The Orioles have $41.8 M committed to 2016, consisting of these players:

$16.33 Adam Jones - CF

$13.00 Ubaldo Jimenez - SP

$12.50 JJ Hardy - SS

Indeed, that is it. Expect all three to be on the 25 man roster and performing in those roles. Ubaldo has done enough this season to earn at least a back-end rotation role. We can only hope that Hardy has a relatively healthy season next year.

BBR estimates another $40.7 million will go toward arbitration and pre-arbitration costs. Let's list the players up for arbitration with their 2015 salaries:

$4.35 Chris Tillman - SP

$3.27 Miguel Gonzalez - SP

$3.20 Brian Matusz - RP

$3.20 Zach Britton - RP

$1.07 Ryan Flaherty - IF

$0.55 Manny Machado - 3B

$0.52 Brad Brach - RP

$0.51 Steve Clevinger - C

Brian Matusz jumps off the page as a possible $4-5 mil saved by letting him go. Miguel Gonzalez is an interesting case, but I'll leave him on the team for now. So we'll take a cool $5 mil off and say we're at $77.5 mil. Add in the pre-arb players and here's what the team looks like, adding no one:

C - Caleb Joseph, Steve Clevinger

1B - Christian Walker

2B - Jonathan Schoop

3B - Manny Machado

SS - JJ Hardy, Ryan Flaherty, Paul Janish

LF - Junior Lake, Henry Urrutia

CF - Adam Jones

RF - Dariel Alvarez

DH - Jimmy Paredes

SP - Ubaldo Jimenez, Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, Miguel Gonzalez, Mike Wright, Tyler Wilson, Dylan Bundy*

RP - Zach Britton, Brad Brach, Mychal Givens, TJ MacFarland, Chaz Roe, Jorge Rondon. Jason Garcia, Oliver Drake

*no ML time yet but must be active

------------

My thoughts, that is easily a 90 loss team, but pieces are still in place to be competitive. There are obvious holes at 1B, corner OF, and I think the pitching staff is thin in both the rotation and bullpen.

[SteveO]

The Orioles have $41.8 M committed to 2016, consisting of these players:

$16.33 Adam Jones - CF

$13.00 Ubaldo Jimenez - SP

$12.50 JJ Hardy - SS

Indeed, that is it. Expect all three to be on the 25 man roster and performing in those roles. Ubaldo has done enough this season to earn at least a back-end rotation role. We can only hope that Hardy has a relatively healthy season next year.

BBR estimates another $40.7 million will go toward arbitration and pre-arbitration costs. Let's list the players up for arbitration with their 2015 salaries:

$4.35 Chris Tillman - SP

$3.27 Miguel Gonzalez - SP

$3.20 Brian Matusz - RP

$3.20 Zach Britton - RP

$1.07 Ryan Flaherty - IF

$0.55 Manny Machado - 3B

$0.52 Brad Brach - RP

$0.51 Steve Clevinger - C

Brian Matusz jumps off the page as a possible $4-5 mil saves by letting him go. Miguel Gonzalez is an interesting case, but I'll leave him on the team for now. So we'll take a cool $5 mil off and say we're at $77.5 mil. Add in the pre-arb players and here's what the team looks like, adding no one:

C - Caleb Joseph, Steve Clevinger

1B - Christian Walker

2B - Jonathan Schoop

3B - Manny Machado

SS - JJ Hardy, Ryan Flaherty

LF - Junior Lake, Henry Urrutia

CF - Adam Jones

RF - Dariel Alvarez

DH - Jimmy Paredes

SP - Ubaldo Jimenez, Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, Miguel Gonzalez, Mike Wright, Tyler Wilson, Dylan Bundy*

RP - Zach Britton, Brad Brach, Mychal Givens, TJ MacFarland, Chaz Roe, Jorge Rondon. Jason Garcia, Oliver Drake

*no ML time yet but must be active

------------

My thoughts, that is easily a 90 loss team, but pieces are still in place to be competitive. There are obvious holes at 1B, corner OF, and I think the pitching staff is thin in both the rotation and bullpen.

I would guess around 70-75 wins max with those guys only.

If they actually spend 40 million, if you spend it well, that can go a long ways towards respectability and competing potentially.

Would still need some guys to have good years but it is not beyond the realm of possibility. It certainly will take a much better offseason than last but there is enough (if he has about 40 million) there that DD should be able to significantly bridge the gap and this team not fall off the map. If they give him like 20 million....oh boy, it might be an ugly ride, DD is not a miracle worker.

[25 Nuggets]

I would guess around 70-75 wins max with those guys only.

If they actually spend 40 million, if you spend it well, that can go a long ways towards respectability and competing potentially.

Would still need some guys to have good years but it is not beyond the realm of possibility. It certainly will take a much better offseason than last but there is enough (if he has about 40 million) there that DD should be able to significantly bridge the gap and this team not fall off the map. If they give him like 20 million....oh boy, it might be an ugly ride, DD is not a miracle worker.

Payroll has gone up each of the last four years. If the trend continues, the budget should be close to $130 mil. Subtract the $77.5 mil estimate that I have, and that's $52.5 mil to play with. Lots and lots of room. There is no excuse for the Orioles not to be players in the FA market.

[25 Nuggets]

The next phase is re-signing free agents, since the incumbent team gets first shot. Here is the list, in rough order of how much money they will get:

1B Chris Davis

SP Wei-Yin Chen

C Matt Wieters

OF Gerardo Parra

RP Darren O'Day

UT Steve Pearce

OF Nolan Reimold

First we'll add the small fish. Steve Pearce rebounded from a terrible start to post decent numbers the second half of the season. Reimold has put in a respectable season too, with a .737 OPS (100 OPS+) through 155 PA. Pearce probably costs $2-3 mil and Reimold, $1 mil. So I'll say $3.5 mil combined for two righty bench/platoon players who may or may not be in positive wins next year. That leaves us at $49 mil.

Darren O' Day. This may come down to manager vs. GM. History tells us Duquette won't spend on his bullpen -- going so far as to trade Ryan Webb plus a draft pick just to save money. Showalter however says "Darren, there's no doubt he's the leader of that bullpen," and indicated his shoes would be tough to fill [mlbtraderumors.com]. O'Day is probably staring at $8 mil a year, something a tad short of Andrew Miller's contract. I don't see it happening -- just hope he doesn't sign with an AL rival. Note that the Orioles should get away with making him an (A) Free Agent.

Gerardo Parra. Signs point to the team going after him. Can't necessarily blame them with the OF market as poor as it looks past the top four. I'll say it happens -- but for how much? He's been terrible with the Orioles in limited time, but that might drive his price down a bit. I'm going to put him at $9 mil, a bump up from his current contract, and about what Dexter Fowler makes/will make.

Finally there's the triple threat from Scott Boras. The Orioles will offer all three to make a total of four (A) free agents. I don't think any will sign. Because Scott Boras. And draft picks. Davis will be missed the most. He can join Gentile, Powell, Murray and Palmeiro* as great Oriole first basemen if he comes back. I really hope he does because he's the only left handed MOO bat the Orioles have.

C - Caleb Joseph, Steve Clevinger

1B - Steve Pearce, Christian Walker

2B - Jonathan Schoop

3B - Manny Machado

SS - JJ Hardy, Ryan Flaherty, Paul Janish

LF - Nolan Reimold, Junior Lake, Henry Urrutia

CF - Adam Jones

RF - Gerardo Parra, Dariel Alvarez

DH - Jimmy Paredes

SP - Ubaldo Jimenez, Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, Miguel Gonzalez, Mike Wright, Tyler Wilson, Dylan Bundy*

RP - Zach Britton, Brad Brach, Mychal Givens, TJ MacFarland, Chaz Roe, Jorge Rondon. Jason Garcia, Oliver Drake

*no ML time yet but must be active

------------

This team looks better by a couple wins. Pearce and Reimold provide depth. Parra is an overpay. I would much rather re-sign O'Day than Parra, but we're trying to predict what the Orioles do, not what I would do.

If this scenario comes to pass, the team enters the FA bidding war with $40 mil even and four extra draft picks. The pitching staff is still mediocre and the lineup is too right handed.

[25 Nuggets]

Under the above scenario, the first thing the team needs is a left handed power bat:

OF - Reimold

OF - Parra (L)

3B - Machado

CF - Jones

2B - Schoop

DH - Paredes (S)

1B - Pearce

C - Joseph

SS - Hardy

You see what I mean -- how valuable re-signing Davis is in my opinion. But that's not the case here, and Jason Heyward isn't coming either. So here are some possibilities:

Dexer Fowler (30) - CF

John Jaso (32) - DH, OF

Kelly Johnson (34) - 1B, 2B, OF

Matt Joyce (31) - OF

Daniel Murphy (31) - 1B, 2B, 3B

Colby Rasmus (30) - OF

Denard Span (32) - CF

Ben Zobrist (35) - 2B, 3B, OF

If for whatever reason either David Murphy ($7 mil, LAA) or Adam Lind ($8 mil, MIL) are turned down by their respective teams, they can be attractive targets. Especially Lind, who would be a platoon 1B/DH, but kills RHP.

The Orioles are going to spend something, and they're very likely going to get someone from this list if they say goodbye to Chris Davis. Sadly, none of these players are Davis... but none of them will come close to his contract numbers either, thus leaving more room to address the pitching staff.

[wildcard]

Best guess at this point:

2016 Payroll Estimate

1) 16.3m Jones - CF

2) 13m Jimenez - SP1

3) 12.5m Hardy - SS

4) 7m Tillman - SP2

5) 5.5m Machado - 3B

6) 5.5m Gonzalez - SP3

7) 4.5m Britton - RP1

8) 2.5m Pearce- LF/RF/1B/2B/DH/3B

9) 1.52m Brach - RP2

10) 1.5m Flaherty - UIF

11) 1.5m Vladimir Guerrero (deferred compensation)

12) .53m Gausman - SP4

13) .53m Lake - 4th OFer

14) .52m Schoop - 2B

15) .52m Joseph - C (shared)

16) .52m Roe - RP3

17) .51m McFarland - RP4

18) .51m Paredes - DH/OF

19) .51m Clevenger - C (shared)

20) .51m Givens - RP5

21) .51m Wilson - SP5

22) .51m Mancini - 1B

23) .51m Rondon - RP7

24) Lefty RP

25) LF

26) RF

Sub Total 74.49m of earned salary

Minus 2.25m deferred from Jimenez

Minus 2m deferred from Hardy(best guess)

Total 73.24m salaries to be paid in 2016

115m-73.24 = 41.76m

It has been reported the 6.5M of Hardy's contract is deferred but no word yet on how it is distributed of the contract term.

Signing bonuses are shown in the year they are paid. Performance bonuses are not included.

I see the O's needing 2 SP, 2 LHRP, 2 lefty OFers, 1 LH DH

One SP for the rotation and one for the minors that is really for the majors.

One lefty reliever for the pen and One for the minors that is ready for the majors.

Two lefty OFers to start for the corners.

One LH DH

I project the Pearce goes FA and signs with the O's for about 2.5m. He spends ST adding 3B to his positions so he can back up Manny when he covers SS for Hardy's off days and injuries.

Paredes goes into ST with the LH DH spot but could lose it to one of Dan's lefthanded pick ups this winter. He may already have his man in Wilkins. I just don't know what the O's think of him. I am guessing he stays on the 40 man roster this winter and competes next spring.

[Ori-Al]

Parra has done nothing to warrant signing him for the amount he'd likely ask, IMO. He has not hit for a high average, nor has he walked much.

[mrbig1]

Payroll has gone up each of the last four years. If the trend continues, the budget should be close to $130 mil. Subtract the $77.5 mil estimate that I have, and that's $52.5 mil to play with. Lots and lots of room. There is no excuse for the Orioles not to be players in the FA market.

There hasn't been a excuse for the last 20 years. We were a step away from the world series last year. That was the time to pull the trigger on a big FA deal. Instead we let Cruz walk and sign no one to take his place.

[ChuckS]

We really need to spend about 50 million to field a competitive team. May need to get creative with deferring money and other ways. Letting Matusz go is a no-brainer.

20 mil on Davis (six year contract) -Heyward as a fallback option

25 mil on Price (seven year contract)

7.5 mil on Denard Span (two year contract)

There is going to be so much pressure for this team to resign Davis that I think if he walks we will have to be in on one of the other premium OFers. Price is a pipe dream, but he is what this team sorely needs more than anything. I'm sure he'll aim for Scherzer money, but not sure there is a team out there that will pony up. So many holes to fill. Definitely can't justify spending 7-9 million on a reliever (O'Day). The bullpen is actually one spot where our minor league system has produced options ready to step in.

[El Gordo]

We really need to spend about 50 million to field a competitive team. May need to get creative with deferring money and other ways. Letting Matusz go is a no-brainer.

20 mil on Davis (six year contract) -Heyward as a fallback option

25 mil on Price (seven year contract)

7.5 mil on Denard Span (two year contract)

There is going to be so much pressure for this team to resign Davis that I think if he walks we will have to be in on one of the other premium OFers. Price is a pipe dream, but he is what this team sorely needs more than anything. I'm sure he'll aim for Scherzer money, but not sure there is a team out there that will pony up. So many holes to fill. Definitely can't justify spending 7-9 million on a reliever (O'Day). The bullpen is actually one spot where our minor league system has produced options ready to step in.

Price is likely to get Scherzer money, 7/210+, plenty of teams starting with the MFY. Davis will be the cheapest of the 4 big bats IMO, though not cheap.

[Roll Tide]

Total rebuild ....won't happen but it should. QO everybody....trade high on Jones and Tillman if possible. Keep Machado if you can sign him long term. Hang onto Schoop and Gausman.

[25 Nuggets]

Price is likely to get Scherzer money, 7/210+, plenty of teams starting with the MFY. Davis will be the cheapest of the 4 big bats IMO, though not cheap.

All the more reason for the team to bring him back. He balances out the middle of the lineup. Even when we said he was worthless, last year, he put up 26 bombs, 88 RBI and 1.8 rWAR. That's the low benchmark for him. Much better than for some other options.

Maybe, just maybe, Jones meeting with ownership can get the team to focus on re-signing Davis. I'm actually fine with bringing the majority of this team back next season, with a few tweaks, most notably an additional starting pitcher. The team's run differential says "wild card contender" and next year could bring better luck.