An Early Look at the 2019 Draft

[eddie83]

On 9/5/2018 at 11:25 PM, sevastras said:

Who do you value more, Ivan Rodriguez or Derek Jeter?  I’ll save you time, Jeter has a little more than 3 WAR more over the careers. That part doesn’t matter to me, a HOF SS is always worth more to me than a HOF C. I’m not saying that Witt, Rut, Abrams or anyone one else is a sure fire HOF player. But all things equal, I take a middle IF over a C all day. Now if you were to say a HOF C or an All Star MIF. I would take the HOF C. But I don’t think we are projecting that. I would also take a projectable high school position player of a college position player if they were close. On the flip side I take a college pitcher over HS if they were close. I’m not saying I’m right with my preference and you are wrong with yours, I am just telling you the reason I value mine pick more than yours. In the end, I just hope the Os get the best player out of the draft. 

 I agree 100% with this. I hope Witt is the guy myself. Obviously if he isn’t the best they should go elsewhere. 

 

[Moose Milligan]

I just hope there's a clear #1 overall consensus pick.  I said it before, the Orioles...I don't think they have much of a clue.  I really hope there's someone that ascends to be clearly the most sought after pick in the draft.

If Rutschman continues to progress, I don't care if a catcher has never been #1 before.  

 

[Greg Pappas]

On 9/5/2018 at 11:25 PM, sevastras said:

Who do you value more, Ivan Rodriguez or Derek Jeter?  I’ll save you time, Jeter has a little more than 3 WAR more over the careers. That part doesn’t matter to me, a HOF SS is always worth more to me than a HOF C. I’m not saying that Witt, Rut, Abrams or anyone one else is a sure fire HOF player. But all things equal, I take a middle IF over a C all day. Now if you were to say a HOF C or an All Star MIF. I would take the HOF C. But I don’t think we are projecting that. I would also take a projectable high school position player of a college position player if they were close. On the flip side I take a college pitcher over HS if they were close. I’m not saying I’m right with my preference and you are wrong with yours, I am just telling you the reason I value mine pick more than yours. In the end, I just hope the Os get the best player out of the draft. 

Which position (non-pitchers, for that is a separate debate) in baseball is the most important to a team is debatable, though I contend it's catcher, followed very closely by SS.  Thereafter, it's between 2B and CF. The latter two are very close (to me) and can be debated/swapped. 

Catchers impact every pitch in every at bat.  While shortstops are a vital fielding position due to making the most plays on the field (among other factors), they do not impact every pitch in every at bat. Catchers call the game (some), setup the hitter, frame every pitch, help to control the running game, etc.

I get why one would choose SS, and I can't say they're wrong.  I guess it comes down to preference.

[Aglets]

In the words of Al Davis.......

Just WAR baby.

[spiritof66]

13 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I just hope there's a clear #1 overall consensus pick.  I said it before, the Orioles...I don't think they have much of a clue.  I really hope there's someone that ascends to be clearly the most sought after pick in the draft.

If Rutschman continues to progress, I don't care if a catcher has never been #1 before.  

 

I'm certainly not an expert on drafting generally or on this year's top-rated guys. But I have read much more than usual about the potential number 1 picks. The consensus, it seems pretty clear to me, is that either Rutschman or Witt is the top guy, with Witt ahead of Rutschman in the spring and Rutschman now slightly ahead of Witt. 

I am expecting the Orioles to follow the consensus and take one of them. I'd be OK with either, though I'm a little concerned that if Witt is taken the Orioles might extend Beckham (if he'll sign cheap) to hold down SS until Witt is ready. And now that I've invested the time to spell Rutschman's name, he's my pick.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I'm certainly not an expert on drafting generally or on this year's top-rated guys. But I have read much more than usual about the potential number 1 picks. The consensus, it seems pretty clear to me, is that either Rutschman or Witt is the top guy, with Witt ahead of Rutschman in the spring and Rutschman now slightly ahead of Witt. 

I am expecting the Orioles to follow the consensus and take one of them. I'd be OK with either, though I'm a little concerned that if Witt is taken the Orioles might extend Beckham (if he'll sign cheap) to hold down SS until Witt is ready. And now that I've invested the time to spell Rutschman's name, he's my pick.

I am curious to know if Witt is a name because of who his dad is.  I am sure that plays a part.  

Lots to happen between now and then.  I'm not sold on Witt but if he's the pick, so be it.  

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I'm certainly not an expert on drafting generally or on this year's top-rated guys. But I have read much more than usual about the potential number 1 picks. The consensus, it seems pretty clear to me, is that either Rutschman or Witt is the top guy, with Witt ahead of Rutschman in the spring and Rutschman now slightly ahead of Witt. 

I am expecting the Orioles to follow the consensus and take one of them. I'd be OK with either, though I'm a little concerned that if Witt is taken the Orioles might extend Beckham (if he'll sign cheap) to hold down SS until Witt is ready. And now that I've invested the time to spell Rutschman's name, he's my pick.

There’s a ton of baseball to be played next spring before we decide who to pick.   The picture can change very dramatically in that time, especially with the high schoolers.    So, I’m not going to spend any time thinking about this until mid-May 2019 or later.

[weams]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There’s a ton of baseball to be played next spring before we decide who to pick.   The picture can change very dramatically in that time, especially with the high schoolers.    So, I’m not going to spend any time thinking about this until mid-May 2019 or later.

This. And unless you are going to trudge the circuit and look at the kids next spring, not too much to be said or determined at this point. 

[weams]

14 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I just hope there's a clear #1 overall consensus pick.  I said it before, the Orioles...I don't think they have much of a clue.  I really hope there's someone that ascends to be clearly the most sought after pick in the draft.

If Rutschman continues to progress, I don't care if a catcher has never been #1 before.  

 

I think #1 will be a pitcher of some sort. 

[ExileAngelos]

22 minutes ago, weams said:

I think #1 will be a pitcher of some sort. 

That is terrifying.

[Moose Milligan]

33 minutes ago, weams said:

I think #1 will be a pitcher of some sort. 

 

10 minutes ago, ExileAngelos said:

That is terrifying.

Yeah, the Orioles taking a pitcher #1 overall is absolutely petrifying.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

Yeah, the Orioles taking a pitcher #1 overall is absolutely petrifying.

The only time the O’s picked 1:1, they chose a pitcher and he did pretty well (20.9 rWAR, which is above the median for the no. 1 pick overall and also among pitchers chosen no. 1).     However, I’d have to be thoroughly convinced that a pitcher was clearly better to select him instead of a position player.   The top 7 no. 1 picks of all time are position players, and 11 of the top 12, even though pitchers make up about 1/3 of all no. 1 picks.    

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The only time the O’s picked 1:1, they chose a pitcher and he did pretty well (20.9 rWAR, which is above the median for the no. 1 pick overall and also among pitchers chosen no. 1).     However, I’d have to be thoroughly convinced that a pitcher was clearly better to select him instead of a position player.   The top 7 no. 1 picks of all time are position players, and 11 of the top 12, even though pitchers make up about 1/3 of all no. 1 picks.    

If you change the criteria from career WAR to the years the players' teams had control I wonder if it changes things?

I don't really care how succesful the pick is after they leave the team.

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, spiritof66 said:

I'm certainly not an expert on drafting generally or on this year's top-rated guys. But I have read much more than usual about the potential number 1 picks. The consensus, it seems pretty clear to me, is that either Rutschman or Witt is the top guy, with Witt ahead of Rutschman in the spring and Rutschman now slightly ahead of Witt. 

I am expecting the Orioles to follow the consensus and take one of them. I'd be OK with either, though I'm a little concerned that if Witt is taken the Orioles might extend Beckham (if he'll sign cheap) to hold down SS until Witt is ready. And now that I've invested the time to spell Rutschman's name, he's my pick.

They need to sign a SS if they draft Witt or not. I don’t think it will be Beckham either.  

[Frobby]

42 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you change the criteria from career WAR to the years the players' teams had control I wonder if it changes things?

I don't really care how succesful the pick is after they leave the team.

That list would look a little different, but you’d still have no pitchers in the top 5.