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Non-Orioles Trade Ideas

Greg Pappas

By Greg Pappas
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Greg Pappas Hangout Grand Counsel

Greg Pappas

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I have considered various trade ideas that seem to make sense, but because they didn't have anything to do with Baltimore, I didn't mention them.

Here is our place to discuss these ideas.

The deal that I like involves the Mets and Giants.

Nick Evans, Dan Murphy and Jon Niese for Matt Cain.

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CaptainRedbeard All-Star

CaptainRedbeard

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I know this one won't happen, but when Peavy was first put on the block before the news of him using his no-trade clause to limit himself to 5 teams, the Rays were mentioned as a possible suitor. They match up in a trade, seeing as the Padres want OF, MI, and pitching help. Imagine a deal of Brignac, Sonnastine, Jackson, and F. Perez/Niemann for Peavy. Then the Rays would have a rotation of Peavy, Kazmir, Shields, Garza, and Price :eek:. That would be terrifying to face up against. Good thing Peavy wants to stay out of the AL East. :D

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Greg Pappas Hangout Grand Counsel

Greg Pappas

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I know this one won't happen, but when Peavy was first put on the block before the news of him using his no-trade clause to limit himself to 5 teams, the Rays were mentioned as a possible suitor. They match up in a trade, seeing as the Padres want OF, MI, and pitching help. Imagine a deal of Brignac, Sonnastine, Jackson, and F. Perez/Niemann for Peavy. Then the Rays would have a rotation of Peavy, Kazmir, Shields, Garza, and Price :eek:. That would be terrifying to face up against. Good thing Peavy wants to stay out of the AL East. :D

I'm not sure that deal is good enough from the Padres side. But if the Rays had gotten him, you're right, yikes! :D

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Migrant Redbird All-Star

Migrant Redbird

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Why?

Not "Why the thread?", but "Why this trade?" Why should the Giants give up an established major league starter -- albeit one who's been slightly disappointing -- for 3 prospects who tasted the big leagues this season?

Cain looks pretty good for a kid who will only be 24 entering his 5th ML season.

Year  W  L GS CG  IP    H  HR BB  SO  ERA ERA+ WHIP2005  2  1  7  1  46.3  24  4 19  30 2.33  183 0.9282006 13 12 31  1 190.7 157 18 87 179 4.15  108 1.280 RoY-52007  7 16 32  1 200.0 173 14 79 163 3.65  122 1.2602008  8 14 34  1 217.7 206 19 91 186 3.76  116 1.364

I don't think you trade that kind of proven starting pitcher ability for 3 guys with these levels of minor league performance. You'd want someone on that list to be a "can't miss" type prospect, like Jones was last year.

PLAYER AG YR  G   AB   R   H   2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO  BA   OBP  SLG  OPSMurphy 23  3 259  957 133 278  61  4 26 157  94 116 .290 .352 .444 .796Evans  22  5 437 1657 249 456 104 17 63 256 159 329 .275 .340 .473 .813             W  L  G GS CG SHO  IP  H  HR  BB  SO  ERA WHIPNeise  21  4 23 15 90 88  5  3  457 455 26 166 420 3.74 1.36

Looking at a capsule review of the three in the Buffalo News:

Outfielder Daniel Murphy was named the Eastern League’s best batting prospect after a big year at Binghamton (.308-13-67) and has batted .362 in his first 38 games with the Mets. The Mets plan to work him at second base in the Arizona Fall League and he may need some time in Buffalo in ’09.

Murphy and outfielder/first baseman Nick Evans (.311-14-53) at Binghamton are platooning in left field in New York with Fernando Tatis (shoulder) out for the season. Evans could be an everyday player in Triple- A next season.

Left-hander Jon Niese, the starter for the Mets Monday against Chicago, could be Buffalo’s ace next season. He was 6-7, 3.04 at Binghamton but went 5-1, 3.40 in seven starts at Triple-A New Orleans.

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Greg Pappas Hangout Grand Counsel

Greg Pappas

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Why?

Not "Why the thread?", but "Why this trade?" Why should the Giants give up an established major league starter -- albeit one who's been slightly disappointing -- for 3 prospects who tasted the big leagues this season?

Cain looks pretty good for a kid who will only be 24 entering his 5th ML season.

Year  W  L GS CG  IP    H  HR BB  SO  ERA ERA+ WHIP2005  2  1  7  1  46.3  24  4 19  30 2.33  183 0.9282006 13 12 31  1 190.7 157 18 87 179 4.15  108 1.280 RoY-52007  7 16 32  1 200.0 173 14 79 163 3.65  122 1.2602008  8 14 34  1 217.7 206 19 91 186 3.76  116 1.364

I don't think you trade that kind of proven starting pitcher ability for 3 guys with these levels of minor league performance. You'd want someone on that list to be a "can't miss" type prospect, like Jones was last year.

PLAYER AG YR  G   AB   R   H   2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO  BA   OBP  SLG  OPSMurphy 23  3 259  957 133 278  61  4 26 157  94 116 .290 .352 .444 .796Evans  22  5 437 1657 249 456 104 17 63 256 159 329 .275 .340 .473 .813             W  L  G GS CG SHO  IP  H  HR  BB  SO  ERA WHIPNeise  21  4 23 15 90 88  5  3  457 455 26 166 420 3.74 1.36

Looking at a capsule review of the three in the Buffalo News:

I was just putting two and two together. With all the rumors of the Giants looking to trade Cain, and with so many holes to fill, it seems reasonable that they'll be looking for a 3-4 for one package to fill those holes.

With that being said, you could be right that the Giants may want more, or perhaps another guy with even better upside, but all three of these youngstaers are young and good quality. Perhaps another player to sweeten the pot? Perhaps a different team than the Mets altogether...

Fair post. :)

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Migrant Redbird All-Star

Migrant Redbird

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If Cain is dealt, my guess is Fielder will be coming back.

That would make some sense. Fielder and a good pitching prospect for Cain. Fielder would fill the Willie McCovey hole in the Giants lineup and he seems to have hit as well there as in any other stadium in baseball except the old RFK stadium.

There have been a couple threads on Cardinals boards about what it would take to get Jake Peavy from the Padres. Apparently, the Padres need to shed some payroll, with the divorce settlement of the Padres owner coming up.

Peavy has a no trade clause, but said he'd accept a trade to the Astros, Braves, Dodgers, Cubs, and Cardinals. The Braves and Cardinals don't seem to be that interested; the Astros are interested, but lack trading chips; the Cubs may only be interested if Ryan Dempster signs elsewhere; and the Pads may not want to trade Peavy to a division rival like the Dodgers.

I suggested RHP Todd Wellemeyer, RHP Ryan Franklin, OF Nick Stavinoha, and C Bryan Anderson from the Cards for Peavy.

Wellemeyer could fill Peavy's spot in the rotation and might -- just might -- match Peavy's performance in 2009 while saving an estimated $6M in 2009 payroll.

Player     Ag  W  L GS CG   IP   H   R ER HR BB  SO HBP WP  ERA ERA+ WHIPPeavy      27 10 11 27  1 173.7 146 57 55 17 59 166  5   6 2.85  134 1.180Wellemeyer 29 13  9 32  0 191.7 178 84 79 25 62 134  7   7 3.71  115 1.252

Dealing Franklin's $4M salary helps the Cardinals reduce their surplus of right hand relievers and offsets much of the 2009 impact on payroll of bringing in Peavy. Of course, that makes the deal less attractive from the Padres viewpoint.

The Padres don't have much in the way of quality catching in the organization -- no one as young as Anderson (21) who's already done so well at the AAA level.

2008 catchers:

Player   Ag  G  AB HR BB SO  BA   OBP  SLG  OPS OPS+Hundley  24 60 198  5 11 52 .237 .278 .359 .637  73Bard     30 57 178  1 18 25 .202 .279 .270 .549  51Barrett  31 30  94  2  9 16 .202 .274 .298 .572  57Carlin   27 36  94  1 10 34 .149 .238 .234 .472  30Morton   26  9  15  0  2  5 .067 .167 .067 .234 -33

Comparing career minor league records of Hundley and Anderson:

Player   Ag Yr  G   AB   R   H  2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPSHundley  24  4 316 1172 167 297 77  2 50 205 141 251 .253 .336 .451 .787Anderson 21  4 355 1239 168 379 70  7 19 181 125 230 .306 .369 .420 .789

That trade doesn't do much for the Padres 2009 payroll, but it does relieve them of the $52M they owe Peavy for 2010-2012, gives them a pretty good replacement in their 2009 rotation, adds a decent relief pitcher to their bullpen, and gives them a couple young players who could be their everyday catcher and right fielder in a year or two.

I don't think the Cardinals would do that deal because they already have $30M per year tied up in long term pitching contracts for the next 3 years and Peavy would bump that up to around $45M. I still predict that Peavy goes to the Cubs or Astros, or remains with the Padres for 2009.

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Migrant Redbird All-Star

Migrant Redbird

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This has been proposed on a Cardinals forum:

Trade Albert?

Would you make this deal?

Cards get Alexei Ramirez, Carlos Quentin, and Gavin Floyd.

White Sox get Colby Rasmus and Albert Pujols.

Just a hypo job.

Reaction so far from other Cardinals fans is mostly negative. That was my reaction as well, but I'm not really that familiar with the White Sox players.

Have you looked at that lineup?

1B--Brett Wallace---Coming Soon

2B--Alexei Ramirez

SS--Rafael Furcal

3B--Troy Glaus ----Craig or Freese coming soon?

OF--Carlos Quentin

OF--Ryan Ludwick

OF--Rick Ankiel

C--Yadi Molina

SP--Jake Peavy

SP--Adam Wainright

SP--Gavin Floyd

SP--Kyle Lohse

SP--Todd Wellemeyer

Oh by the way I used the money saved from Albert to Purchase Furcal and traded prospects for Peavy.

This just shows how an Albert can hamstring a Team like the Cards.

I'm assuming he meant outfield prospects like Rasmus, Jay, Barton, and Robinson for Peavy, since we don't have that many top drawer pitching prospects and none which are really regarded as major league ready.

I took a crack at applying Chone Smith's player value equation to the proposed trade with the White Sox. Some of my initial arguments kind of fall by the wayside, so pardon the meandering.

If Chone Smith's numbers are valid and Albert is really worth about $36M a year, we're saving about $20M in salary value on him each of the next 3 years. You'd have a big argument to prove that Ramirez, Quentin, and Floyd are worth $20M plus the cost of their contracts more than Albert is.

I didn't have the Wins Above Replacement which Chone used, so I used THT Winshares above replacement instead.

Pujols - 23

Quentin - 14

Ramirez - 8

Floyd - 9

The difference equals 8 WSAB. Winshares are divided by 3 to convert to actual wins, so Quentin, Ramirez, and Floyd would probably translate to 2.7 extra wins over the course of a season. Using Chone's formula, each win above replacement is worth about $4.8M, so the White Sox trio ought to be worth about $12.8M per year more than Pujols is.

Now, looking at salaries.

Quentin has a year before he reaches arbitration eligibility, which means he'll probably make $800K or so in 2009, $2M in 2010, and $4M in 2011, if he continues to put up good numbers.

Floyd also has a year before arbitration, so use the same WAGs for his salary the next 3 years.

Ramirez, as a rookie just signed out of Cuba, will only receive $1.1M each of the next 3 years.

Therefore, the annual costs for the players looks like this:

PLAYER(s)                  2009    2010    2011       TotalPujols                    $16M    $16M    $16M        $48MQuentin, Floyd, Ramirez   $ 2.7M  $ 5.1M  $ 9.1M      $16.9MSalary Delta              $13.3M  $10.9M  $ 6.9M      $31.1MPujols                       7.7 wins X $4.8M = $37M X 3 years = $111MQuentin, Floyd, Ramirez     10.4 wins X $4.8M = $50M X 3 years = $149MVALUE MINUS COSTPujols                     $111M - $48M   = $63MQuentin, Floyd, Ramirez    $149M - $16.9M = $132.1M

So, just crunching the numbers, it seems as though trading Pujols even up for Quentin, Floyd, and Ramirez would save $132M over the next 3 years which could be applied to acquiring other valuable players.

I assume the White Sox are as capable of arithmetic as I am, have better data to feed into the equations, and are probably less prone to making mistakes, so I have to ask the big question:

Why in the world would the White Sox eviscerate their team of solid young players just to add a highly paid star attraction like Pujols?

Yes, any team in baseball would like to have Pujols, but not at the cost of dismantling their current roster and starting over.

The other point which I would make is that Pujols has been a model of consistency for 8 seasons. Barring injuries, we know pretty well what we're going to get from him until age begins to slow him down.

Each of the proposed players we'd get back for Pujols is essentially a "one year wonder".

Ramirez is a rookie who will be 27 years old next season. His OPS+ is only 104; Adam Kennedy posted a 110 in 2002; how do we know that Ramirez will be above average at the plate or defensively in the future?

Floyd will be 26, but he's already pitched parts of 4 major league seasons prior to his breakout year of 2008. An ERA of 3.84 was pretty good, but his DIPS and FIP imply that he got pretty lucky this year. Is Floyd really a winning pitcher, or just a younger version of Kent Bottenfield?

Quentin is quite a hitter, but the White Sox chose to keep him in left field, which implies that his defense isn't that noteworthy. Yes, 36 home runs and a .394 OBP is impressive, but will he sustain that level of performance or slump back to his 2007 production?

All things considered, I might be inclined to make that trade, but I think I'd blink at the end and refuse to pull the trigger.

There are potentially three or four big holes in the trade proposal.

(1) The White Sox might not like the trade at all.

(2) Trading Pujols would inevitably alienate a large segment of Cardinals fans, seriously impacting 2009 advance ticket sales.

(3) One or more of the White Sox players are likely to decline from the performance level of what is thus far their "career years".

(4) If those players continue to improve, my estimates for their 2010 and 2011 salaries could be low. Still, they probably would never cost as much as Pujols will the next 3 years.

In addition, the Padres would likely insist on either Wellemeyer or Wainwright in the trade for Peavy. Can't see giving up Wainwright and I would be reluctant to give up both Wellemeyer and Rasmus for Peavy, considering the additional salary the Cards would be taking on -- even with the savings on Pujols.

Interesting proposal? Thoughts?

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