Interesting tidbits from Rosenthal's Elias/Zaidi article

[eddie83]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-1998-07-11-1998192023-story,amp.html
 

 

I vividly remember Ken thinking the Orioles should stop signing vets.  He was right. Just interesting they took a course albeit too late that he advocated for in the past. 

[waroriole]

I know O’s fans have an insecurity about every sports writer being out to get the team. In Ken’s case it’s completely true. He’s a small man. 

[7Mo]

Just now, eddie83 said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-1998-07-11-1998192023-story,amp.html
 

 

I vividly remember Ken thinking the Orioles should stop signing vets.  He was right. Just interesting they took a course albeit too late that he advocated for in the past. 

I think what he's advocating is the O's should be doing everything they're doing PLUS signing FA's to fill in at the ML level who could become productive major league players and/or trade chips. 

[eddie83]

2 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

I think what he's advocating is the O's should be doing everything they're doing PLUS signing FA's to fill in at the ML level who could become productive major league players and/or trade chips. 

I don’t think the players Elias has added he wants to fail. 
 

He acts like being a GM is like playing fantasy baseball. Offer this guy a million or 2 more than their best offer and watch them sign here. It doesn’t work that way. 

[7Mo]

Just now, eddie83 said:

I don’t think the players Elias has added he wants to fail. 
 

He acts like being a GM is like playing fantasy baseball. Offer this guy a million or 2 more than their best offer and watch them sign here. It doesn’t work that way. 

No, it doesn't work that way. But it wouldn't be a stretch to invest $10M to $15M per winter instead of $2M.

The counter is to not do the rebuild in "half measures". But I don't see the issue. No prospect is being blocked. The Iglesias and Galvis deals were good. Franco seemed like a reasonable bet that didn't work out. Fine, they're not gonna all work out. 

But I think it's reasonable to shop in a slightly higher market than King Felix. And maybe bring in 3-4 instead of 1-2. 

I'm not advocating large dollars to one guy. Buying a prospect by taking the Hosmer salary is too many eggs in one basket because of the extreme cost. But spending $2M to $5M on 3-4-5 guys who have a fair chance to bounce back seems reasonable to me.

[eddie83]

15 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

No, it doesn't work that way. But it wouldn't be a stretch to invest $10M to $15M per winter instead of $2M.

The counter is to not do the rebuild in "half measures". But I don't see the issue. No prospect is being blocked. The Iglesias and Galvis deals were good. Franco seemed like a reasonable bet that didn't work out. Fine, they're not gonna all work out. 

But I think it's reasonable to shop in a slightly higher market than King Felix. And maybe bring in 3-4 instead of 1-2. 

I'm not advocating large dollars to one guy. Buying a prospect by taking the Hosmer salary is too many eggs in one basket because of the extreme cost. But spending $2M to $5M on 3-4-5 guys who have a fair chance to bounce back seems reasonable to me.

That’s not unreasonable. Once again though you have to find these type of players. Elias’ failure so far has been in general he has not hit on those types. Iglesias and Galvis worked out. Urias is decent. 
 

Clearly even in a rebuild Elias built a poor SP staff. I hope and believe he will invest at least in one of those types of arms. Once again though it’s not like there is bargain bin where you go to a store and buy 2 SP’s who you know will give you 150ip and a 5 ERA. I don’t give a damn how much he spends. He has not found any undervalued arms yet. It’s more than fair to point that out. 

[Sports Guy]

And Rosenthal is wrong…Elias absolutely should be finding the next Muncy and Taylor.  In fact, those are the exact players he should be finding.  Cheap options that way outperform their cost.  Those are the players ownership, especially a cheap ass ownership like ours, dreams of.  
 

It is the task of every GM to find surplus talent.

[eddie83]

4 hours ago, 7Mo said:

Is this not all directed at ownership? The way I read it, Elias has done what he's been hired to do, at least to date and the criticism is directed at ownership. 

....He wasn't hired to find Muncy or Taylor (i.e., ignore the big club for now), the club had been stripped almost bare (there weren't tradable assets), it's unclear when ownership will spend money, why not get going, maybe those modest sums are too much.... 

Elias was not hired to find the next Max Muncy or Chris Taylor, two of Zaidi’s discoveries when he was general manager of the Dodgers. The Orioles needed to bolster their analytics department and build their international scouting almost from scratch. And unlike the Giants, who still had big names on their roster at the start of 2019, including several who had contributed to their three World Series titles, the Orioles’ major-league club had been stripped almost bare. 

 

The team, however, is unlikely to compete, at earliest, until 2023. And if that is to happen, Elias will need to enjoy better success with the free agents he signs to inexpensive or minor-league deals, particularly when it’s unclear at which point ownership again will be willing to spend big dollars in the open market. Next season will be the last season in which the Orioles pay Chris Davis his $23 million salary. The team does not have a single guaranteed dollar committed for ‘23, though a number of its players will be eligible for arbitration.

Why not get moving? While a trade of shortstop Freddy Galvis to the Phillies at the deadline brought the Orioles a low-level pitching prospect, most of Elias’ lesser moves — right-hander Matt Harvey, third baseman Maikel Franco, et al — fall into the category of “meh.” It’s true the Orioles in their current state are not exactly a desired destination for free agents. But what if they had offered right-hander Anthony DeSclafani $2 million more than the $6 million he received in his one-year deal from the Giants? They might have ended up with a pitcher who could have helped them better compete this season and attracted serious trade interest in a market that was starved for quality starting pitchers. A two-year deal for Taijuan Walker in excess of the $20 million the Mets gave him would have made sense for the same reasons.

Perhaps even those relatively modest sums were too rich for Orioles ownership. But no rebuilding team should ever look at a player and say, “He is not a fit.” As the Giants, in particular, have shown, if the player is evaluated properly, he will prove an asset.

See this is where I completely disagree with Ken. Why isn’t it Elias’ job to find these kind of guys? That doesn’t have to wait until they are contenders. He and all 30 GM’s can do that whether they are contending or not. 
 

I really don’t get what he is getting at. He basically says Mike is emphasizing on building the team from the ground up. Then he says he needs to spend more. Then he says they need to evaluate properly. No kidding. 
 

The entire article is all over the map. I see no logical reason to link the two teams together. 

[7Mo]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And Rosenthal is wrong…Elias absolutely should be finding the next Muncy and Taylor.  In fact, those are the exact players he should be finding.  Cheap options that way outperform their cost.  Those are the players ownership, especially a cheap ass ownership like ours, dreams of.  
 

It is the task of every GM to find surplus talent.

Sure. Has he had the resources to do that with?

I don't really choose to argue the past tense question. My question is whether he will have those resources this winter, on a limited basis, and much more in resources going forward.

No way to know the answer until this winter IMO. But if they invest less than say $4M this winter, I don't think it's a good sign.

[eddie83]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And Rosenthal is wrong…Elias absolutely should be finding the next Muncy and Taylor.  In fact, those are the exact players he should be finding.  Cheap options that way outperform their cost.  Those are the players ownership, especially a cheap ass ownership like ours, dreams of.  
 

It is the task of every GM to find surplus talent.

Exactly. You beat me to it. What he said makes no sense. Even if you find one of those types before you are a contender you can deal them. 

[7Mo]

2 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

See this is where I completely disagree with Ken. Why isn’t it Elias’ job to find these kind of guys? That doesn’t have to wait until they are contenders. He and all 30 GM’s can do that whether they are contending or not. 
 

I really don’t get what he is getting at. He basically says Mike is emphasizing on building the team from the ground up. Then he says he needs to spend more. Then he says they need to evaluate properly. No kidding. 
 

Is the point that HE needs to spend more? Or is it questioning how ownership is allocating resources?

[7Mo]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And Rosenthal is wrong…Elias absolutely should be finding the next Muncy and Taylor.  In fact, those are the exact players he should be finding.  Cheap options that way outperform their cost.  Those are the players ownership, especially a cheap ass ownership like ours, dreams of.  

Agree with that.

[Ohfan67]

This season is incredibly painful and I sure hope there is only one more terrible year in the Orioles near future. That said, It would have been incredibly short sighted for Elias to do things to the major league club to win more games. Not only would the Orioles pick lower, more importantly the Orioles would have less draft money to spend. The over slot strategy  Elias is pursuing would not work nearly as well if the Orioles had say four or five million less to spend during the draft. It’s a crappy system, but in the current system truly sucking has multiple benefits. I hope the team is in a better situation next year and a far better situation in two years. The ML team is a horror show to watch, but it’s the correct strategy. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, waroriole said:

I know O’s fans have an insecurity about every sports writer being out to get the team. In Ken’s case it’s completely true. He’s a small man. 

[Sports Guy]

9 hours ago, 7Mo said:

Sure. Has he had the resources to do that with?

I don't really choose to argue the past tense question. My question is whether he will have those resources this winter, on a limited basis, and much more in resources going forward.

No way to know the answer until this winter IMO. But if they invest less than say $4M this winter, I don't think it's a good sign.

What resources?  The only resources required to find cheap talent are intelligence, scouting and looking for the right things in a player that you can work with. 
 

You also need a lot of luck.

 

He has those resources at his disposal.