What does the schedule for the rest of the year suggest for the Orioles WC chances?

[luismatos4prez]

None of you seem to understand. We're not locked in here with them. They're locked in here with us!

[Sports Guy]

I feel like this run is harder to believe that 2012 was.

Although this team doesn’t feel as lucky as that one was.  

Edited August 9, 2022 by Sports Guy

[jabba72]

Toronto is now 16-15 in their last 30. Entirely possible we split the remaining games with them. Win this series and our chances look alot better. I only mean 81-82 wins. Playoffs still seem completely unrealistic to me.

[Jim'sKid26]

Just got back from the game. Bluejays did not pitch well tonight. They were down early and the O's hit some bombs. Lyles was good enough to win. Toronto's lineup can hit, though. I think we are only as good as our next starting pitcher in this series.

[NashLumber]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I feel like this run is harder to believe that 2012 was.

Although this team doesn’t feel as lucky as that one was.  

I was trying to remember how many one run games they won. They were 29-9 in one run games. Interesting tidbit on that:  https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/3/15/4105922/one-run-game-performance-unsustainable-orioles

"How unsustainable is that 29-9 record in one-run games? Well, for starters, it’s the highest winning percentage in one-run games in MLB history (dating back to 1901, which is 2332 individual team seasons). Anything that extreme is due for some serious regression to the mean. "

Later in article:  " The team's Pythagorean win percentage was just .505, meaning they were, as expected, playing well over their heads in close games. I'd definitely expect their performance (in 2013) to come back to somewhere near .500."

Edited August 9, 2022 by NashLumber

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

5 hours ago, tntoriole said:

Cito sucks! 

Always.

[O's84]

7 minutes ago, NashLumber said:

I was trying to remember how many one run games they won. They were 29-9 in one run games. Interesting tidbit on that:  https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/3/15/4105922/one-run-game-performance-unsustainable-orioles

"How unsustainable is that 29-9 record in one-run games? Well, for starters, it’s the highest winning percentage in one-run games in MLB history (dating back to 1901, which is 2332 individual team seasons). Anything that extreme is due for some serious regression to the mean. "

Later in article:  " The team's Pythagorean win percentage was just .505, meaning they were, as expected, playing well over their heads in close games. I'd definitely expect their performance (in 2013) to come back to somewhere near .500."

I think the Rangers beat that mark, I can't remember which year.  

[NashLumber]

12 minutes ago, O's84 said:

I think the Rangers beat that mark, I can't remember which year.  

I didn't know that. That article was from the spring of 2013, looking back at the previous year, so that was the data concerning the O's it was addressing. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

16 minutes ago, O's84 said:

I think the Rangers beat that mark, I can't remember which year.  

 

3 minutes ago, NashLumber said:

I didn't know that. That article was from the spring of 2013, looking back at the previous year, so that was the data concerning the O's it was addressing. 

It was the 2016 Rangers team with a 36-11 one run games record. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TEX/2016-schedule-scores.shtml I

[O's84]

21 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

 

It was the 2016 Rangers team with a 36-11 one run games record. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TEX/2016-schedule-scores.shtml I

O's 29-9 in one run games = 76.3%

Rangers 36-11 in one run games = 76.6%

Really close.

Edited August 9, 2022 by O's84

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

4 minutes ago, O's84 said:

O's 29-9 in one run games = 76.3%

Rangers 36-11 in one run games = 76.6%

Really close.

That's a virtual tie just separated by.003 percentage points. Techinically Rangers have the better record, but in my mind they're tied with the 2012 Orioles. 

[waroriole]

Tied with Seattle in the loss column, and 1 GB from the last wildcard. 

[CarrRun49]

8 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Just got back from the game. Bluejays did not pitch well tonight. They were down early and the O's hit some bombs. Lyles was good enough to win. Toronto's lineup can hit, though. I think we are only as good as our next starting pitcher in this series.

You're literally only as good as your next starter every game

[rm5678]

3 hours ago, waroriole said:

Tied with Seattle in the loss column, and 1 GB from the last wildcard. 

We need to be ahead of the Mariners, not tied, since the Mariners won the season series with us which gives them the tiebreaker edge That's why the upcoming Rays series is crucial. If we win 2 of 3 at the Trop this weekend, then we will win the season series and will earn the tiebreaker against the Rays.

[NCRaven]

4 hours ago, CarrRun49 said:

You're literally only as good as your next starter every game

With Manoah and Berrios starting for Toronto in the next two games, we could be in trouble then.  Hopefully, Bradish brings his A-game tonight.