Mateo Trade Potential

[Moose Milligan]

58 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

And there is no guarantee that Mateo will come close to that again either.  Or even get close.  If his bat doesn't improve he's likely not playing as much, and therefore not acquiring WAR.  As to the rest, who knows how Ortiz will be in comparison.  All reports say that he is the best defensive prospect of our bunch.  Could he also play gold glove defense?  I don't know, but it doesn't seem outside the realm of possibilities either.  Overall I think too many around here overrate Mateo and sell Ortiz short.  

 

Who, specifically, is overrating Mateo?  I think everyone here admits that he's not a good hitter but a good to great glove-man with blinding speed on the bases.  His strengths and weaknesses are easily defined and yet he was a positive WAR player for us last year.  SG is right to wonder how long that defense will continue.  I don't think anyone believes that Mateo will become a great, or even a good hitter.

Who's selling Ortiz short?  Keep in mind that not many of us have actually seen him play for an extended period of time.  What we have to go on, like it or not, is scouting reports, highlights and anecdotes.  Even if any of our esteemed members on this site have seen him play, it was for a handful of games.  That said, it appears that he's a great fielder, one of the best in the organization, most everyone has been able to agree on that.  How's that selling him short?

I've seen a lot of people (me included) that believe Ortiz will get playing time in Baltimore this season.  I'm not sure if that's selling him short by any stretch.  

58 minutes ago, Ripken said:

This thread is something.  Jorge Mateo has little value anywhere because he can't hit.  Whether he's here, or not here, has little to do with the success of our 2023 season.  Any return in trade will be minimal.  Let's go another 15 pages though!

This is going for another 30 pages, easy.  The way he's been dissected is absurd, next thing you know we'll be debating which way he leans when he farts.  

[RZNJ]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Putting Gunnar at short in 2023 will block Holliday in a few years.

Putting Gunnar at SS in 2023 will block Holliday in 2025 or 2026?   I think they'll figure something out.

[LTO's]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Putting Gunnar at short in 2023 will block Holliday in a few years.

You think Ortiz is the same caliber of prospect as either of those guys?

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Putting Gunnar at SS in 2023 will block Holliday in 2025 or 2026?   I think they'll figure something out.

Huh.

Didn't think that needed the green font.

There I go overestimating folks again.

Sorry.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, LTO's said:

You think Ortiz is the same caliber of prospect as either of those guys?

Nope.

Sure don't.

I've also been in favor of putting Gunnar at Short until he proves he can't handle it.

[forphase1]

31 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

Who, specifically, is overrating Mateo?  I think everyone here admits that he's not a good hitter but a good to great glove-man with blinding speed on the bases.  His strengths and weaknesses are easily defined and yet he was a positive WAR player for us last year.  SG is right to wonder how long that defense will continue.  I don't think anyone believes that Mateo will become a great, or even a good hitter.

Who's selling Ortiz short?  Keep in mind that not many of us have actually seen him play for an extended period of time.  What we have to go on, like it or not, is scouting reports, highlights and anecdotes.  Even if any of our esteemed members on this site have seen him play, it was for a handful of games.  That said, it appears that he's a great fielder, one of the best in the organization, most everyone has been able to agree on that.  How's that selling him short?

I've seen a lot of people (me included) that believe Ortiz will get playing time in Baltimore this season.  I'm not sure if that's selling him short by any stretch.  

This is going for another 30 pages, easy.  The way he's been dissected is absurd, next thing you know we'll be debating which way he leans when he farts.  

Overrating Mateo - many folks.  They are acting like he is irreplaceable and that the idea of trading him and letting Ortiz have the playing time is a terrible idea and that our defense will just crater without him at SS.  Using Mark Belanger as a comp for keeping a light hitting, but great fielding, SS in the lineup.  You know, the 18 year vet with 8 Gold Glove awards and the like.  Sure, that's an apt comparison after one good season out of Mateo...

Shelling Ortiz short - those that think that replacing Mateo with him will be a huge mistake and that it will harm our team.  To act like Ortiz is not able to replace Mateo is selling him short.  

In short, we have a bit of both going on, thinking Mateo is more valuable than he really is (3.5 WAR!!!!) and underselling just how much Ortiz could replace of that.  

[Moose Milligan]

14 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Overrating Mateo - many folks.  They are acting like he is irreplaceable and that the idea of trading him and letting Ortiz have the playing time is a terrible idea and that our defense will just crater without him at SS.  Using Mark Belanger as a comp for keeping a light hitting, but great fielding, SS in the lineup.  You know, the 18 year vet with 8 Gold Glove awards and the like.  Sure, that's an apt comparison after one good season out of Mateo...

Shelling Ortiz short - those that think that replacing Mateo with him will be a huge mistake and that it will harm our team.  To act like Ortiz is not able to replace Mateo is selling him short.  

In short, we have a bit of both going on, thinking Mateo is more valuable than he really is (3.5 WAR!!!!) and underselling just how much Ortiz could replace of that.  

 

I don't think anyone here has said he's irreplaceable.  We must not be reading the same board.

I think what people are more in favor of, or more comfortable with, is letting him being the opening day SS.  I don't think anyone here is clamoring for him to be a long term SS solution or thinks that he's in the long term plans for this club at all.  I don't believe anyone has ever made that claim.  

In regards to the Belanger comp, I don't believe anyone is saying he's the second coming of Belanger, either.  Rather, you can have a light hitting, great fielding SS on your team and it's fine.  Belanger's career WAR is something over 40.  Again, no one's saying he's a direct comp to Belanger but he's very much (so far) in that mold of a player.  Whether or not he can still provide value as a defender into his late 20s and early 30s remains to be seen.  I think the silly thing here is insisting that everyone at every position be a good-to-great hitter.  Ignoring that you can still bring a good amount of value to the team by playing defense at a well above average level is being intentionally obtuse, as is the idea that EVERYONE HAS TO BE A GOOD HITTER!!!

3.5 WAR is nothing to sneeze at, I'm not sure why you're quick to downplay it.  I'm also not sure why you're quick to think that Ortiz could replace of it when none of us really have any idea how he'll perform at the big league level.  Mind you, I don't think anyone here is against Ortiz getting playing time and seeing what he can do.  If he can replace that 3.5 WAR, or a good chunk of it, great.  If not, that's okay there's other MI candidates in the system.  

[Big Mac]

41 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

I don't think anyone here has said he's irreplaceable.  We must not be reading the same board.

I think what people are more in favor of, or more comfortable with, is letting him being the opening day SS.  I don't think anyone here is clamoring for him to be a long term SS solution or thinks that he's in the long term plans for this club at all.  I don't believe anyone has ever made that claim.  

In regards to the Belanger comp, I don't believe anyone is saying he's the second coming of Belanger, either.  Rather, you can have a light hitting, great fielding SS on your team and it's fine.  Belanger's career WAR is something over 40.  Again, no one's saying he's a direct comp to Belanger but he's very much (so far) in that mold of a player.  Whether or not he can still provide value as a defender into his late 20s and early 30s remains to be seen.  I think the silly thing here is insisting that everyone at every position be a good-to-great hitter.  Ignoring that you can still bring a good amount of value to the team by playing defense at a well above average level is being intentionally obtuse, as is the idea that EVERYONE HAS TO BE A GOOD HITTER!!!

3.5 WAR is nothing to sneeze at, I'm not sure why you're quick to downplay it.  I'm also not sure why you're quick to think that Ortiz could replace of it when none of us really have any idea how he'll perform at the big league level.  Mind you, I don't think anyone here is against Ortiz getting playing time and seeing what he can do.  If he can replace that 3.5 WAR, or a good chunk of it, great.  If not, that's okay there's other MI candidates in the system.  

The question may be more of if Ortiz can replace 0.8 WAR, which is what fangraphs projects for Mateo this season.  I agree 3.5 WAR is nothing to sneeze at and that would be a tall task for Ortiz in his rookie season, but my expectation is that Mateo does not sniff 3.5 (or 2.8fWAR) next season. 

[Moose Milligan]

8 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

The question may be more of if Ortiz can replace 0.8 WAR, which is what fangraphs projects for Mateo this season.  I agree 3.5 WAR is nothing to sneeze at and that would be a tall task for Ortiz in his rookie season, but my expectation is that Mateo does not sniff 3.5 (or 2.8fWAR) next season. 

Ok. So if I understand you correctly, you think he’s in line for a major slide in his defensive capabilities?

[Big Mac]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Ok. So if I understand you correctly, you think he’s in line for a major slide in his defensive capabilities?

I do not think he can repeat a 2.4dWAR, no.  He'll be 28 already this season and a number like that is much more likely to be an outlier than something that is repeated consistently. 

[HakunaSakata]

3 hours ago, Ripken said:

This thread is something.  Jorge Mateo has little value anywhere because he can't hit.  Whether he's here, or not here, has little to do with the success of our 2023 season.  Any return in trade will be minimal.  Let's go another 15 pages though!

I think it's evolved into one side basically saying he's the second coming of Ozzie Smith and the other saying he shouldn't be an everyday player.  I think it's going to be interesting to see how Mateo's playing time shakes out this season. If things break right for the Orioles, he'll be a part time player. If things break wrong, he'll get 500+ ABs. 

On a side note, I still don't think anyone has come up with an solid explanation about why no other contending team is  selling out for defense at SS. If it's such a sound strategy then why is no one else doing it?  

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Mateo is definitely not “too important to trade”. That’s an absurd thought.  
 

You can debate the bar of Ortiz but not the glove. That’s ready and could replace Mateo’s.

There are 2 reasons you keep Mateo:

1) No one wants him/give up much for him.

2) You want to give Ortiz a little more time and don’t want to move Gunnar to SS because that’s not his spot long term.

 

I think Ortiz has a plus glove but I doubt it’s as good as Mateo’s.  I saw some list of best defensive shortstops in the minors and Ortiz wasn’t in the top 5.   Now, those types of lists aren’t always reliable, but we just watched Mateo deservedly win a Fielding Bible Award, so I’m not expecting Ortiz to match that even if he’s very good.  

As to the bat, I think it’s 60/40, maybe even 70/30, that Ortiz is the better bat (especially in the longer term), but it’s by no means certain. ZiPS has Mateo at 83 OPS+ with an 80th percentile projection at 103 and a 20th percentile projection at 67; Ortiz is projected at 81 with a 102 80th and 65 20th.  I don’t fully agree with that projection (I’d have Ortiz higher) but it certainly illustrates that there’s no certainty that Ortiz will be the better hitter. Nor is there certainty that Mateo’s 2023 will closely mirror 2022; it could be significantly better or worse.  

Bottom line, I expect Mateo to go into 2023 as the starting SS, maybe starting slightly fewer games than he was starting for most of last year.  If he hits better than last year, he could end up playing even a bit more than before.  If he hits about the same, he’ll play a bit less than last year.  If he hits significantly worse, he could lose his starting job.  We’ll just have to see how it goes.  This is a guy who hit under .500 OPS for long stretches of last season, but also hit .850+ for a very significant stretch.  He ended up at .646, but he was rarely hitting in that range for any length of time.  So it’s really hard to guess how this season will go for him.  

 

[Sports Guy]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think Ortiz has a plus glove but I doubt it’s as good as Mateo’s.  I saw some list of best defensive shortstops in the minors and Ortiz wasn’t in the top 5.   Now, those types of lists aren’t always reliable, but we just watched Mateo deservedly win a Fielding Bible Award, so I’m not expecting Ortiz to match that even if he’s very good.  

As to the bat, I think it’s 60/40, maybe even 70/30, that Ortiz is the better bat (especially in the longer term), but it’s by no means certain. ZiPS has Mateo at 83 OPS+ with an 80th percentile projection at 103 and a 20th percentile projection at 67; Ortiz is projected at 81 with a 102 80th and 65 20th.  I don’t fully agree with that projection (I’d have Ortiz higher) but it certainly illustrates that there’s no certainty that Ortiz will be the better hitter. Nor is there certainty that Mateo’s 2023 will closely mirror 2022; it could be significantly better or worse.  

Bottom line, I expect Mateo to go into 2023 as the starting SS, maybe starting slightly fewer games than he was starting for most of last year.  If he hits better than last year, he could end up playing even a bit more than before.  If he hits about the same, he’ll play a bit less than last year.  If he hits significantly worse, he could lose his starting job.  We’ll just have to see how it goes.  This is a guy who hit under .500 OPS for long stretches of last season, but also hit .850+ for a very significant stretch.  He ended up at .646, but he was rarely hitting in that range for any length of time.  So it’s really hard to guess how this season will go for him.  

 

He has never been a good hitter in his long pro career. I don’t think it’s that hard to guess that he  will continue to be a bad hitter.

 

[AnythingO's]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He has never been a good hitter in his long pro career. I don’t think it’s that hard to guess that he  will continue to be a bad hitter.

Odds are this is an absolutely true statement. However Ortiz didn't hit until 3 months or so end of last season. We can build plausible explanations based on injury recovery and physical development, but we really don't know what we have yet. Mateo was blocked by a couple All Stars and only has like 770 MLB ABs. He never showed a glove like that before, is that lack of opportunity or what he is, IDK. His approach at the plate is poor but for 6+ weeks last year he worked with hitting coaches, adjusted and was a competent MLB hitter. Then he reverted to old form. Which version shows up this year, IDK. Urias spent 5 years in Minors, 5 years in Mexico before his 2 years here. He always hit but didn't last year. He never showed GG defense before, was kinda average Util IF until he wasn't last year. I see people wanting to put the #1 prospect and best 3 B prospect in MLB at SS this year in deference to Urias GG. We really don't know what we have in any of these 3 guys yet. That's why we have to play the games.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

Odds are this is an absolutely true statement. However Ortiz didn't hit until 3 months or so end of last season. We can build plausible explanations based on injury recovery and physical development, but we really don't know what we have yet. Mateo was blocked by a couple All Stars and only has like 770 MLB ABs. He never showed a glove like that before, is that lack of opportunity or what he is, IDK. His approach at the plate is poor but for 6+ weeks last year he worked with hitting coaches, adjusted and was a competent MLB hitter. Then he reverted to old form. Which version shows up this year, IDK. Urias spent 5 years in Minors, 5 years in Mexico before his 2 years here. He always hit but didn't last year. He never showed GG defense before, was kinda average Util IF until he wasn't last year. I see people wanting to put the #1 prospect and best 3 B prospect in MLB at SS this year in deference to Urias GG. We really don't know what we have in any of these 3 guys yet. That's why we have to play the games.

Mateo didn’t hit that well in the minors either. We have a very large pro sampling that says he isn’t a good hitter. 

Ortiz had the missed season and the shoulder injury.

Urias also never really played third before.

And of course, there is always the “you never know” but for every Jose Bautista out there, there are 1000s of guys who failed to become anything despite immense talent.

 

Edited January 28, 2023 by Sports Guy