Mateo Trade Potential

[Roll Tide]

19 hours ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

Mr. Overrated strikes another phat deal. Suckers.

I’m not even going to give you the laugh emoji! But, I’m laughing here . He’s produced 12.7 WAR over the last 2 seasons. I don’t want him at that contract but he’s not overrated.

[crawjo]

On 12/21/2022 at 6:56 AM, Roll Tide said:

I think they should get the best bundle of prospects. It’s clear to me that winning isn’t the priority yet. So keep building the pile. Now the key piece should be a nearly ready SP. 

Winning absolutely is a priority. The farm system is loaded. This team went 83-79 last year. Just because they aren't throwing around 10-year mega-contracts doesn't mean the team isn't focused on winning. 

[sportsfan8703]

Is penciling in Mateo everyday at SS wrong for this team?

It sounds crazy to have Mateo play anywhere other than SS, where he showed elite level defense, but Gunnar Henderson, and our IF depth in AAA. 
 

Elias always talks about position versatility, well Mateo could best help this team if he played some OF and other IF spots too. This is only a need if we have an injury, but Mateo should be ready. 162 is a long season.  
 

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Is penciling in Mateo everyday at SS wrong for this team?

It sounds crazy to have Mateo play anywhere other than SS, where he showed elite level defense, but Gunnar Henderson, and our IF depth in AAA. 
 

Elias always talks about position versatility, well Mateo could best help this team if he played some OF and other IF spots too. This is only a need if we have an injury, but Mateo should be ready. 162 is a long season.  
 

He has to figure out a way to hit.

[InsideCoroner]

30 minutes ago, wildcard said:

He has to figure out a way to hit.

I would love to see him work like crazy on his bunting skills. Even if you know he's bunting, he's got such elite speed that it really puts pressure on the defense to make a perfect play. But every time he hits another homer, I feel like it makes it even less likely he'll square up or even cut down on that swing. 

[oriole]

26 minutes ago, wildcard said:

He has to figure out a way to hit.

I have no idea how to find this information, but I’d guess that Mateo is probably one of the best all around players that hit exclusively out of the 9 spot. Obviously all his value comes from his glove, but I’d be curious to know where he stands by WAR amongst other players who hit in the 9 spot. 

 

As long as he keeps playing defense at that level, I’m fine with a .650 OPS / 30 SB kind of production. 
 

[eddie83]

26 minutes ago, oriole said:

I have no idea how to find this information, but I’d guess that Mateo is probably one of the best all around players that hit exclusively out of the 9 spot. Obviously all his value comes from his glove, but I’d be curious to know where he stands by WAR amongst other players who hit in the 9 spot. 

 

As long as he keeps playing defense at that level, I’m fine with a .650 OPS / 30 SB kind of production. 
 

Yep. If he produces like last year he will keep playing. Now with the added depth the Orioles have he may not play as much.  
 

 

I keep thinking the Marlins still will trade for a SS. I just can’t see them starting Wendle at SS. Not saying we are a definite match, especially since Lopez is gone.  

[Just Regular]

BOS also passing over Elvis Andrus and Jose Iglesias pushes those guys one step closer to loss of one of the 30 * 26 jobs.

Mateo's 2023 reminds me somewhat of Mullins 2022 - what kind of consolidation will there be?    He doesn't have to improve his hitting much (any?) to remain a contributor.

[HakunaSakata]

59 minutes ago, oriole said:

I have no idea how to find this information, but I’d guess that Mateo is probably one of the best all around players that hit exclusively out of the 9 spot. Obviously all his value comes from his glove, but I’d be curious to know where he stands by WAR amongst other players who hit in the 9 spot. 

 

As long as he keeps playing defense at that level, I’m fine with a .650 OPS / 30 SB kind of production. 
 

I love Mateo's glove, but I don't think any major league player with a .267 OBP should be playing everyday, regardless of where they're batting in the order or how good defensively they are. 

If you look at last season's top fielding SS' the only other teams that regularly played slick fielding shortstops who hit as poorly as Mateo were the Marlins (Miguel Rojas) and Yankees (Kiner-Falefa).  Both of those teams realized that wasn't a recipe for success and the Marlins traded Rojas and the Yankees have turned the reigns over to their young high end rookie (O.Pereza). 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=13,d 

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I love Mateo's glove, but I don't think any major league player with a .267 OBP should be playing everyday, regardless of where they're batting in the order or how good defensively they are. 

If you look at last season's top fielding SS' the only other teams that regularly played slick fielding shortstops who hit as poorly as Mateo were the Marlins (Miguel Rojas) and Yankees (Kiner-Falefa).  Both of those teams realized that wasn't a recipe for success and the Marlins traded Rojas and the Yankees have turned the reigns over to their young high end rookie (O.Pereza). 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=13,d 

Let’s use fWAR, which is less favorable to Mateo than rWAR.  By fWAR, Mateo was the 14th most valuable SS in baseball, at 2.8.  And, the 74th best position player in MLB.  So, Mateo is good enough to start for more than half the teams in the majors, despite his awful offense.   He was pretty valuable and is going to play until he plays worse or someone better comes along.  Either of those things could happen, but if Mateo plays exactly as he did last year, it will take someone very good to knock him off his perch.   
 

[oriole]

31 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I love Mateo's glove, but I don't think any major league player with a .267 OBP should be playing everyday, regardless of where they're batting in the order or how good defensively they are. 

If you look at last season's top fielding SS' the only other teams that regularly played slick fielding shortstops who hit as poorly as Mateo were the Marlins (Miguel Rojas) and Yankees (Kiner-Falefa).  Both of those teams realized that wasn't a recipe for success and the Marlins traded Rojas and the Yankees have turned the reigns over to their young high end rookie (O.Pereza). 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=13,d 

Mateo had more WAR than both of those players combined. Yes, all from defense but that just goes to show just how good he is in the field. 
 

Not saying he is the best option, I think I’d rather major league hitters at every position and Mateo act more like a defensive sub/pinch runner. But all things considered, I like having him play most days. 

[Bahama O's Fan]

2 hours ago, oriole said:

I have no idea how to find this information, but I’d guess that Mateo is probably one of the best all around players that hit exclusively out of the 9 spot. Obviously all his value comes from his glove, but I’d be curious to know where he stands by WAR amongst other players who hit in the 9 spot. 

 

As long as he keeps playing defense at that level, I’m fine with a .650 OPS / 30 SB kind of production. 
 

Yes, that would be interesting. What are the hitting stats for the #9 hitters across baseball?

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Yes, that would be interesting. What are the hitting stats for the #9 hitters across baseball?

.227/.289/.348.  Mateo was .221/.267/.379.   Of course, Mateo didn’t always bat 9th.  He did so in 89 of 142 starts.  

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

.227/.289/.348.  Mateo was .221/.267/.379.   Of course, Mateo didn’t always bat 9th.  He did so in 89 of 142 starts.  

I mean it just goes to show his value.  Most teams have a guy that hits like Mateo in their lineup.  Almost nobody, and to my mind absolutely nobody, has a guy that can pick it like Mateo in their lineup.

[NJOriolesFan]

I think Mateo at shortstop is ideal for 2023 over bringing in somebody else for a variety of reasons:

1. Holliday is our future shortstop, maybe as soon as mid-2024.  So we don't need a long term contract on a shortstop.
2. Based on 1 above, no point in playing Henderson at short for a year and a half when it is likely that his future is at 3rd base with Holliday at shortstop.
3. DEFENSE.  His defense will result in less hits and more double plays which means more outs and less pitches for our pitchers.  His range does wonders for our pitching staff.
4. He and/or Urias will have value as utility guys when we have Westburg/Norby, Henderson and Holliday in the infield.  Of course, Ortiz and Westburg/Norby can fill the utility role by mid-2024, if not sooner.
5. Not sure he has great trade value.

That said, if we can get good value in a trade for Mateo and we won't lose anything defensively between Ortiz and Mateo, I'm all for trading him to get better starting pitcher.

Edited January 26, 2023 by NJOriolesFan