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Fangraphs hates our rotation


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This list doesn’t seem to reflect the ERA forecast from Fangraphs Depth Charts projection model.  They are projecting Orioles’ starters to have a 4.14 ERA, which is in line with last year’s performance.

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Fangraphs blows. Our rotation isn’t that bad. 
 

They just don’t know how to project anything that doesn’t contain enough data so they play it safe. It’s easy to “hate” our rotation when Bradish is coming off a breakout season and we need to find out if he can do it again, G-Rod had a great 2nd half after being miserable in the first half, the return of Means, Kremer who is solid and whatever 5th guy we put out there. 
 

I’m not saying we should be in the same conversation for the best rotations in the game, I’m simply saying Fangraphs doesn’t like ours because there’s not enough data for their projections. So they err on the side of ranking us low. 
 

Fangraphs worst nightmare is trying to rank a team with almost all rookies. 

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Fangraphs on the money.  The Orioles’ rotation isn’t bad, but it’s one bad injury away from being in real trouble.  Whether you trade with us, you guys should really acquire a TOR starter.  Banking on exceeding your Pythagorean again without the benefit of Bautista would be incredibly shortsighted IMO.

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Last year, the O’s rotation threw the 6th most innings and had the 11th best ERA in the major leagues.  I’ll take actual results over Fangraphs’ rankings.  There are reasons to wonder whether the O’s can repeat last year’s performance, and we’d like to be even better.   Hence the pursuit of another starter.  But it’s laughable to put the O’s in 25th place.  Luckily, I only care what Elias and his number crunchers think, not what the amateurs at Fangraphs come up with.   

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5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Fangraphs on the money.  The Orioles’ rotation isn’t bad, but it’s one bad injury away from being in real trouble.  Whether you trade with us, you guys should really acquire a TOR starter.  Banking on exceeding your Pythagorean again without the benefit of Bautista would be incredibly shortsighted IMO.

Thank you for your highly impartial opinion.  😁

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4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Fangraphs on the money.  The Orioles’ rotation isn’t bad, but it’s one bad injury away from being in real trouble.  Whether you trade with us, you guys should really acquire a TOR starter.  Banking on exceeding your Pythagorean again without the benefit of Bautista would be incredibly shortsighted IMO.

Not sure you can say Fangraphs is on the money with the Os ranked 25th, but that the Os rotation isn’t bad. 

I think most rotations are at significant risk with one bad injury too. The Dodgers, ranked 3rd, are relying on Glasnow and Buehler to stay healthy as their #2 and #3. No sure thing, and not great depth there as we saw last year.

But yeah, most of us want to acquire a top 3 SP to upgrade what we have, including our GM. I think we’re middle of the pack though. 

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3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Last year, the O’s rotation threw the 6th most innings and had the 11th best ERA in the major leagues.  I’ll take actual results over Fangraphs’ rankings.  There are reasons to wonder whether the O’s can repeat last year’s performance, and we’d like to be even better.   Hence the pursuit of another starter.  But it’s laughable to put the O’s in 25th place.  Luckily, I only care what Elias and his number crunchers think, not what the amateurs at Fangraphs come up with.   

Look, you guys can do whatever you want.  But I truly believe you guys are nuts if you think your rotation is good enough as is.  There is nothing more dangerous than the arrogance of prior year results.  The good news is Mike Elias isn’t stupid and I highly doubt he doesn’t augment the rotation with an impactful starter.

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