Too much negativism every time we lose

[Sports Guy]

You guys can mock Jtrea here but I am not sure his overall message is wrong.

Matusz is an excellent pitcher and I am glad we have him but the bottom line is, there seems to always be a few advanced college arms in every draft.

It does seem to be easier to be able to draft a matusz than a Smoak.

Right now, are you guys telling me that you wouldn't trade Hobgood and Matusz for Leake and Smoak?

I haven't checked to see what guys like White are doing or some of the other advanced college/HS arms over the last few seasons but I would think we could get close to Matusz production easier than getting close to Smoak production.

[LookinUp]

You guys can mock Jtrea here but I am not sure his overall message is wrong.

Matusz is an excellent pitcher and I am glad we have him but the bottom line is, there seems to always be a few advanced college arms in every draft.

It does seem to be easier to be able to draft a matusz than a Smoak.

Right now, are you guys telling me that you wouldn't trade Hobgood and Matusz for Leake and Smoak?

I haven't checked to see what guys like White are doing or some of the other advanced college/HS arms over the last few seasons but I would think we could get close to Matusz production easier than getting close to Smoak production.

Actually, I'll stick with my stance at the time of each draft. I'd rather have Matusz, Matzek and - coming up - Taillon.

I still think pitching wins and I still think good 1b are a dime a dozen, whereas TOR pitching is not...just like Leake probably is not a TOR pitcher.

If the Orioles can't find a good bat to put at 1b, that's their fault. First is like a negative premium position. It's not like you're looking for a .900 OPS at SS or CF, we're talking about 1B.

Smoak is showing signs that he'll be good, perhaps very good, but not necessarily great (though it's possible). We can find a guy close to him at 1B easier than we can find the next Matusz.

[JTrea81]

Maybe he should ask you for draft advice, since you seem to be such an expert on the subject. :laughlol:

JTrea, would you rather have Ackley instead of Strasburg, right now?

Ackley without a doubt.

Strasburg is going to be out of baseball within 5 years IMO.

Ackley may take a little longer to get to the majors, but he's going to have the better career.

[Frobby]

Ackley without a doubt.

Strasburg is going to be out of baseball within 5 years IMO.

There's always an injury risk with pitchers. I'd still rather have Strasburg. He's the real deal, the kind of guy who can be a Cy Young candidate every year. You can't pass that up.

[LookinUp]

There's always an injury risk with pitchers. I'd still rather have Strasburg. He's the real deal, the kind of guy who can be a Cy Young candidate every year. You can't pass that up.

You can if you think good pitchers are a dime a dozen and good hitters are impossible to find.

Personally, I think the O's could sign Abreu or Matsui to play 1b and be fine, as long as their pitching is top notch. But what do I know?

[Stotle]

You guys can mock Jtrea here but I am not sure his overall message is wrong.

Matusz is an excellent pitcher and I am glad we have him but the bottom line is, there seems to always be a few advanced college arms in every draft.

It does seem to be easier to be able to draft a matusz than a Smoak.

Right now, are you guys telling me that you wouldn't trade Hobgood and Matusz for Leake and Smoak?

I haven't checked to see what guys like White are doing or some of the other advanced college/HS arms over the last few seasons but I would think we could get close to Matusz production easier than getting close to Smoak production.

You would be wrong. If you think this you are drastically undervaluing how incredible it is that Matusz was ML-ready within a year and looking like he will be able to consistently produce at a high level. It's incredibly rare.

Leake's jump is great, but it is almost exclusively due to plus-plus command and 4/5 workable pitches. His ceiling is very likely still a good #3/lower-end #2. Matusz looks to be a safe bet to be that with a good chance at much more.

Honestly, it's tough to find a Smoak or a Matusz. The draft is a lot easier to discuss when people aren't trying to find neat little generalities to bolster their preconceived (and ill-formed) notions.

[Sports Guy]

You would be wrong. If you think this you are drastically undervaluing how incredible it is that Matusz was ML-ready within a year and looking like he will be able to consistently produce at a high level. It's incredibly rare.

Leake's jump is great, but it is almost exclusively due to plus-plus command and 4/5 workable pitches. His ceiling is very likely still a good #3/lower-end #2. Matusz looks to be a safe bet to be that with a good chance at much more.

Honestly, it's tough to find a Smoak or a Matusz. The draft is a lot easier to discuss when people aren't trying to find neat little generalities to bolster their preconceived (and ill-formed) notions.

But you can find cheap production out of a starter, like we did with Guthrie and you can do that with a first baseman as well, like Pena.

But overall, it seems like you can find that pitcher easier..whether it be in draft, trade, FA signing or waiver wire pickup.

I am not saying its easy to find Matusz...What i am saying is that it is easier to find close to Matusz production than close to Smoak production IMO.

[Stotle]

Ackley without a doubt.

Strasburg is going to be out of baseball within 5 years IMO.

Ackley may take a little longer to get to the majors, but he's going to have the better career.

This is so 100% why you don't "get it" with the draft. If Strasburg pitches 4 years as a #1 it wouldn't matter that his career ended (which is just an insane thing to say in the first place at this point).

If WAS signed a FA starter to a four year, $15.1 million contract and he gave them #3, #2, #1, #1 production for those four years, do you honestly think they'd care if they 1) didn't get to re-sign him, or 2) if he got injured at the end of that 4th year?

You just have such an odd way of analyzing the draft and speak with such conviction it's tough sometimes. I know you are just passionate, but you gotta learn/read-up on/whatever some of this stuff if you are going to make these wild claims.

[LookinUp]

But you can find cheap production out of a starter, like we did with Guthrie and you can do that with a first baseman as well, like Pena.

But overall, it seems like you can find that pitcher easier..whether it be in draft, trade, FA signing or waiver wire pickup.

I am not saying its easy to find Matusz...What i am saying is that it is easier to find close to Matusz production than close to Smoak production IMO.

What is "Smoak production?"

I ask seriously. Is he a Teixeira? A Wieters? A Carlos Pena when he was hitting 40+ bombs? A Adrian Gonzalez? Morneau? or closer to Konerko, with better defense?

I'll say this...if he ends up like Teixeira then several teams underrated him in the draft, or he overperformed. I'd take him on this team in a heartbeat, but I'm not sure that the love fest here is quite warranted. I don't think we're looking at Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard. I could certainly be wrong though.

[Sports Guy]

What is "Smoak production?"

I ask seriously. Is he a Teixeira? A Wieters? A Carlos Pena when he was hitting 40+ bombs? A Adrian Gonzalez? Morneau? or closer to Konerko, with better defense?

I'll say this...if he ends up like Teixeira then several teams underrated him in the draft, or he overperformed. I'd take him on this team in a heartbeat, but I'm not sure that the love fest here is quite warranted. I don't think we're looking at Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard. I could certainly be wrong though.

Well, what's Matusz production?

I mean, all of this is about projection.

I think Smoak will be an 850-900 OPS guy with GG caliber defense.

[Stotle]

But you can find cheap production out of a starter, like we did with Guthrie and you can do that with a first baseman as well, like Pena.

But overall, it seems like you can find that pitcher easier..whether it be in draft, trade, FA signing or waiver wire pickup.

I am not saying its easy to find Matusz...What i am saying is that it is easier to find close to Matusz production than close to Smoak production IMO.

And I think you are wrong. I mean, honestly, what is this line of thinking supposed to accomplish? Trea (and now you) are just throwing willy-nilly "IMOs" and using odd one-offs as supposed support.

Guthrie? Really? What are the other Rule 5 pick-ups (post Santana-era where you only had 4 years) that are providing mid-rotation value across baseball?

Further, how are you even measuring these things? "Close to Matusz" means what? And what is "Matusz"? You've only seen him pitch, what, 2/3rds of a single ML season, combined? Lord knows what "Smoak" means. What does he have, three weeks of ML ball under his belt?

Maybe there is a discussion to have about the merits of certain types of players to draft, but that discussion does not start with the absurd claims by Trea that you are now lending credence to. And, if anyone wants to even START acting like HS pitcher/HS hitter/college pitcher/college hitter generalities can be made, I want to see a heap of research -- not a chicken-scratch-on-a-napkin comparison of four people who have been pro players for a combined 4.25 seasons.

[LookinUp]

Well, what's Matusz production?

I mean, all of this is about projection.

I think Smoak will be an 850-900 OPS guy with GG caliber defense.

So basically a Wieters type, at a less valuable position. That's certainly not bad (not trying to say it is). In fact, I think it's relatively close to what we should expect from Matusz.

I've played and watched baseball my entire life, and obviously the O's for the last 12 years. It's not like I think offense doens't matter, to the contrary, but I know that you can't even sniff contention w/o having a reliable staff and you won't ever win w/o 2-3 guys who can step up with TOR type performances when it matters.

You can win with Matsui, Damon, Abreu types up and down your lineup though. At least I think you can.

[Sports Guy]

And I think you are wrong. I mean, honestly, what is this line of thinking supposed to accomplish? Trea (and now you) are just throwing willy-nilly "IMOs" and using odd one-offs as supposed support.

Guthrie? Really? What are the other Rule 5 pick-ups (post Santana-era where you only had 4 years) that are providing mid-rotation value across baseball?

Further, how are you even measuring these things? "Close to Matusz" means what? And what is "Matusz"? You've only seen him pitch, what, 2/3rds of a single ML season, combined? Lord knows what "Smoak" means. What does he have, three weeks of ML ball under his belt?

Maybe there is a discussion to have about the merits of certain types of players to draft, but that discussion does not start with the absurd claims by Trea that you are now lending credence to. And, if anyone wants to even START acting like HS pitcher/HS hitter/college pitcher/college hitter generalities can be made, I want to see a heap of research -- not a chicken-scratch-on-a-napkin comparison of four people who have been pro players for a combined 4.25 seasons.

Its really not difficult...If you think Matusz is a 3.5-4 ERA guy and that Smoak is a 850-900 OPS guy, you can make an argument that those 2 cancel out.

So, let's go with that concept.

So, then the question is this...Is it easier to find that 4.25-4.5 ERA, 200 IP starter vs that 830ish, average or better defensive first baseman?

I think it is easier to find that starter...at least it is for the Orioles.

So, that's what it comes down to...If you want to say Matusz and Smoak will be amongst the best of the best at their positions and they cancel each other out(say by using WAR as that measuring stick), then how easy is it to find the pitcher vs first baseman.

They don't have to be elite at those positions to replace these 2...They just need to be solid...And then it becomes a Smoak and Guthrie(for example) for Matusz and Konerko(for example) discussion.

[Frobby]

I think Smoak will be an 850-900 OPS guy with GG caliber defense.

Will he be better or worse than Casey Kotchman?

[Sports Guy]

Will he be better or worse than Casey Kotchman?

Better...and Kotchman would be better than anything the FO has put out there over the last several years.