Rosenthal via source: Burnett did, indeed, prefer the NL...

[hoosiers]

According to fangraphs, Burnett was worth 4.0 WAR last year. It had Balfour at 0.6 WAR.

I've been using Baseball Reference. It has Burnett averaging about 1.7 WAR the past five years and at 1.7 WAR last year.

If Burnett were worth 4 WAR, I would think the Pirates would be begging for him to come back.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Yes, if he were open to signing with anyone. If he's only willing to pitch for Pittsburgh and (possibly) Baltimore, then you have to redefine "market." Neither team will pay him $15M and I doubt the Pirates would pay him what the O's would.

If he wants $14 million and neither the Orioles or Pirates are willing to pay that, he can always just pack his toys up and go home.

Or he could always reconsider his "PIT, BAL or bust" position. No one has said he can't do that.

[atomic]

I've been using Baseball Reference. It has Burnett averaging about 1.7 WAR the past five years and at 1.7 WAR last year.

If Burnett were worth 4 WAR, I would think the Pirates would be begging for him to come back.

I think fanagraphs war rating for pitchers is too simplistic. The thing I like about Burnett is he is quite capable of pitching 200 innings. The thing I don't like is that he wasn't so good the last couple of years in American league.

[Frobby]

On a one-year deal, Burnett can certainly earn more than $10 mm if he chooses to go on the open market. He hasn't even said he'd pitch for the O's, only the Pirates. So, while he might be persuaded that Baltimore is also an acceptable alternative, I'm sure he's not going to come here at a huge discount, as he might do with the Pirates. I'd say $12.5 mm plus some innings-based incentives might lure him here.

[Il BuonO]

Like who? Jimenez and Santana both cost a first round pick, and both have been erratic over their careers. Imagine how great it would feel if in addition to losing the pick, our "big" SP acquisition came out and posted a 4.85 ERA in the first year of their big money deal, because of those guys are known to do such things. Garza? He doesn't cost a draft pick and there's rumored interest from both the Yankees and Angels. Do you really think we can beat either of those teams out if they decide they really want him? Arroyo? Again, no pick but he'll get eaten alive in the AL East. Who's left after that? Paul Maholm? Chris Capuano?

(Cards on the table, I'd like to sign Capuano if Burnett retires or returns to the Pirates...but still, only as a Plan B...)

Burnett is the best option on the market for the Orioles, bar none. No draft pick compensation, durable, track record of success, no long-term deal required to sign him and potentially burn us later- sign me up please.

Makes a lot of sense, but I wonder about it when I don't hear anything especially after Pittsburgh seemingly being set for their rotation.

On a one-year deal, Burnett can certainly earn more than $10 mm if he chooses to go on the open market. He hasn't even said he'd pitch for the O's, only the Pirates. So, while he might be persuaded that Baltimore is also an acceptable alternative, I'm sure he's not going to come here at a huge discount, as he might do with the Pirates. I'd say $12.5 mm plus some innings-based incentives might lure him here.

With the incentives built in there likely won't be a discount and good value for both sides. If he reaches 200 innings he's likely had a successful campaign in more ways than one.

[Il BuonO]

I found this audio clip but it's really hard to even read anything into it.

http://www.dve.com/media/podcast-morning-show-interviews-Interviews/aj-burnett-102313-23876659/

[Frobby]

I found this audio clip but it's really hard to even read anything into it.

http://www.dve.com/media/podcast-morning-show-interviews-Interviews/aj-burnett-102313-23876659/

Nice find! He clearly wants more family time, and Baltimore would make a lot of sense for him if he decides he wants to pitch.

[section18]

That clip was from late October and still no decision. I think he wanted the Pirates to get a replacement (which they've done) to make his decision easier so he wouldn't upset his Pirate fans. If he pitches it's definitely going to be in Baltimore. Maybe we are close with signing him and Morales and they decided not to go $15 million with Balfour. Either that or the Phillies are willing to eat a large part of Cliff Lee's contract and will include him along with Papelbon (eating a lot of his contract as well) in the same deal. The Orioles are a perfect fit for AJ. and they can give him some choice seats for games now and after he retires. Thanks for the clip.

[Il BuonO]

Pirates, Orioles, retirement?

How about the Yankees? They would take him over Garza.

http://yanksgoyard.com/2013/12/21/time-ask-aj-burnett-come-back-bronx/

[WEAVERMAN]

I'd rather go with a young pitcher, it's not like we're "going for it" in 2014. DD is taking the organizational path, give the young guys a chance.

[Il BuonO]

I'd rather go with a young pitcher, it's not like we're "going for it" in 2014. DD is taking the organizational path, give the young guys a chance.

That's right, but you need to change your paradigm. AJ is the bridge to the younger guys and the perfect mentor. He's already played that role in Pittsburgh.

[PA Bird Fan]

That's right, but you need to change your paradigm. AJ is the bridge to the younger guys and the perfect mentor. He's already played that role in Pittsburgh.

Right. Which "young guys" are ready? Could be any one of Britton, Gausman, Johnson, McFarland potentially. I'd like to see Gausman with a little more time at Norfolk. And while I'd love for any of these guys to step up you can't count on it.

Has anyone wondered what the rotation would be like if Tillman gets hurt or regresses and we don't add someone like a Burnett? We would be looking at something like Chen, Gonzalez, Norris, ? ? (Britton, Gausman, Johnson, McFarland, Stinson, etc)

[Finisher]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Last I heard on AJ Burnett was that <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Orioles&src=hash">#Orioles</a> had him as main SP priority and may be waiting on him. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Pirates&src=hash">#Pirates</a> likely still an option.</p>— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) <a href="

">December 23, 2013</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Capn Vivi]

I've been using Baseball Reference. It has Burnett averaging about 1.7 WAR the past five years and at 1.7 WAR last year.

If Burnett were worth 4 WAR, I would think the Pirates would be begging for him to come back.

think fanagraphs war rating for pitchers is too simplistic. The thing I like about Burnett is he is quite capable of pitching 200 innings. The thing I don't like is that he wasn't so good the last couple of years in American league.

Those numbers are very deceptive. fWAR for pitchers is built around FIP. Burnett's FIP in 2013 was 2.80 (ERA: 3.30). Burnett's ERA+ (which is park adjusted) is only 107.

Just for comparison, Chris Tillman's 3.71 ERA came along with a 113 ERA+ (Tillman's 2013 was worth 4.4 rWAR, but only 2.0 fWAR because of his 4.42 FIP)

Baseball Reference's WAR for pitchers is based around actual earned value adjusted for the park/league, Fangraph's is more about predicting future performance and is highly dependent on defensive stats.

That said, Burnett's 107 ERA+ would have ranked 3rd on the 2013 Orioles, behind Miguel Gonzalez' 111 ERA+ and Wei-Yin Chen's 103 ERA+.

He would be a big addition, but realistically, he would only slot into the middle of our rotation, and I would expect a 3.90-4.20 ERA from him in 2014.

[Os84]

It would be a nice boost to morale if Burnett passed his physical and signed a deal with the Orioles right before the holidays.