Burning Questions

[Rene88]

Great day at the park today, beautiful. Great t-shirt! Horrible watching the offense struggle....

Question 1: my buddy mentioned that he heard DD was on the market for a corner OFer. Has anyone else heard anything? Didn't see anything on MLB Trade Rumors.

Question 2: I read we were never close with Tillman this offseason on an extension. That really upset me. I think he is the one guy we need to extend. If we don't sign him, nor MW (we shouldn't sign MW), nor Chen, nor Davis, nor Norris, nor Britton.....

My question is where is this money going? Serious question.

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[Crazysilver03]

I think Tillman is very much regretting not taking the extension. I would like to see the team invest money in players, but many of our extension candidates carry a lot of risk. Maybe more so than for other teams. I don't see the urgency in a Tillman extension. I would rather focus on Gonzo who could possibly sign a shorter extension for less money than Tillman due to age and having a short career so far.

We have a lot of pitching that needs to be sorted out. The bullpen is definitely an area they could go with cost controlled arms over free agents.

I would rather see the money put into position players since we are bare in that area. Hopefully they can sign a decent corner OF on the market this winter to pair with Jones.

[El Gordo]

Its gonna be even more $$ to try and re-sign our guys or sign FA.Any way you look at it its going to be an expensive offseason.Make no mistake, of the say, 10 FA, we may see just 1 or 2 re-signed if that many.

The only FA we might resign are O'Day and Pearce. Neither will cost that much. They should spend their money on extending Manny. And maybe a COF.

[OFFNY]

o

I would like to have Tillman, Chen, Britton all back ......, and perhaps Chris Davis, also. Davis' solid defense makes me willing to put up with his erratic (and/or sub-par) offense.

I'm a pitching and defense person, first and foremost. The old cliche of pitching and defense combined being between 60% and 70% of the game happens to be something that I agree with. It may be closer to 60% than 70% ...... in fact, it may be a little under 60%, at around 57% or 58%, but there is no doubt in my mind that it is more than half of the key to successful baseball. Pitching is not completely independent of defense, so if you have both good pitching and good defense, you're in business, in my rat's ass of an opinion.

While our lack of offense as of late is a major reason (and perhaps the biggest reason) why the Orioles are currently mulling around at the .500 mark instead of being 5 or 6 games above .500, I believe that over the course of the marathon, 162-game season, the Orioles will move forward to being a team that is well over .500 (at least 86-76 or better) by season's end IF they continue to get BOTH solid pitching AND good defense. And if the offense manages to consistently get their asses in gear at some point in the season, then I believe that that minimum 86-76 record that I just alluded to will be more like a minimum 90-72 record.

[Nevermore]

Probably not going to happen with Tillman. See below. I'd much rather extend Miguel Gonzalez.

http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasybaseball/update/25199257/orioles-shut-door-on-long-term-deal-with-sp-chris-tillman

The window might be shut tight permanently on any possibility that the Orioles and starting pitcher Chris Tillman come to a long-term agreement, CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman is reporting.

The two sides never came close to hammering out a contract. And Tillman seems to be wiping out any opportunity with his performance on the mound. He opened the season as the ace but hasn't pitched like one.

Tillman is 2-6 with a 5.59 ERA and has walked 25 in 48 1/3 innings. He has lost his last five decisions, though his last start against Houston was arguably his best of the year.

[Rene88]

Sounds like leverage that we want him for cheaper to me. Tillman is still a good pitcher. Just not ace $.

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[El Gordo]

Sounds like leverage that we want him for cheaper to me. Tillman is still a good pitcher. Just not ace $.

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I'd really not be in a hurry to extend Tillman. Wait and see if he can recover the rest of the way. We have other interesting possibilities in Wright, Gausman, Bundy, Wilson, Harvey, ETC.

[mdbdotcom]

I think we should get used to the idea that our players will be here until they become free agents and then they will be gone. Only a rare talent like Machado should be extended. For the rest, I'd rather they put the money into scouting, international signings, and development. Build the arms and the bats.

[wildcard]

Its 9 FAs since the O's let Webb and De Aza go.

1) Chen - Will not be back. Market will make him too expensive.

2) Davis - Will hit free agency but the O's may pursue. Strikeouts may keep his contract in a range the O's could afford.

3) Wieters - If he has a good 2nd half he will be too expensive for the O's.

4) Norris - Will not be back.

5) O'Day - Buck will want him back. Depends on years and $. 33-35 years.

6) Hunter - O's will not go 4 years IMO. Market probably makes him too expensive.

7) Pearce - May be cheaper than his current contract. Could be back.

8) Young - With Paredes on team he probably does not fit.

9) Wesley Wright - Be nice to see him pitch before making a decision. He could be back if he pitches well and if he stay with the O's all season.

Others

Cabrera may go when Schoop is activated.

Matusz could be non tender if he is still with the team.

Tillman - This off season is the right time to extend. I think it will happen.

[Rene88]

Its 9 FAs since the O's let Webb and De Aza go.

1) Chen - Will not be back. Market will make him too expensive.

2) Davis - Will hit free agency but the O's may pursue. Strikeouts may keep his contract in a range the O's could afford.

3) Wieters - If he has a good 2nd half he will be too expensive for the O's.

4) Norris - Will not be back.

5) O'Day - Buck will want him back. Depends on years and $. 33-35 years.

6) Hunter - O's will not go 4 years IMO. Market probably makes him too expensive.

7) Pearce - May be cheaper than his current contract. Could be back.

8) Young - With Paredes on team he probably does not fit.

9) Wesley Wright - Be nice to see him pitch before making a decision. He could be back if he pitches well and if he stay with the O's all season.

Others

Cabrera may go when Schoop is activated.

Matusz could be non tender if he is still with the team.

Tillman - This off season is the right time to extend. I think it will happen.

I agree with all points but where do you think all this money goes next offseason?

[weams]

Its 9 FAs since the O's let Webb and De Aza go.

5) O'Day - Buck will want him back. Depends on years and $. 33-35 years.

.

What make you think that matters and what makes you think the Orioles would overpay like that? I love him too.

[wildcard]

I agree with all points but where do you think all this money goes next offseason?

Here is an estimate I did a while ago:

2016 Payroll Estimate

1) 16.3m Jones - CF

2) 13m Jimenez - SP1

3) 12.5m Hardy - SS

4) 7m Tillman - SP2

5) 5.5m Machado - 3B

6) 5.5m Gonzalez - SP3

7) 4.5m Britton - RP1

8) 3.6m Cabrera - UIF

9) 3.2m Snider - LF

10) 1.5m Flaherty - UIF

11) 1.5m Vladimir Guerrero (deferred compensation)

12) .53m Gausman - SP4

13) .53m McFarland - RP2

14) .53m O?Brien - C (shared)

15) .52m Schoop - 2B

16) .52m Joseph - C (shared)

17) .52m Brach - RP3

18) .52m Lough - OF

19) .52m Givens - RP4

20) .51m Bundy ? RP5

21) .51m Paredes - DH

22) .51m Alvarez - RF

23) .51m Wright ? SP5

24) .51m Steve Johnson? RP6

25) .51m Davies ? RP7

26) .51m Parmelee ? 1B

Sub Total 81.86m of earned salary

Minus 2.25m deferred from Jimenez

Minus 2m deferred from Hardy(best guess)

Total 77.61m salaries to be paid in 2016

120m-77.61 = 42.39m

If the O's resign:

Davis 5/90

O'Day 3/21

Pearce 2/6

That is 28m. 42-28= 14 yet to spend.

They probably spend the 14m on offense. A corner outfielder.

[Frobby]

I'm not paying Davis anything close to 5/$90 mm. He'll get Adam Dunn money.

[Rene88]

Thanks for taking the time to post Wildcard. Good analysis.

I agree with Frobby, no way Crush gets that kind of money unless he gets red hot.

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[Crazysilver03]

Its 9 FAs since the O's let Webb and De Aza go.

.

6) Hunter - O's will not go 4 years IMO. Market probably makes him too expensive.

.

I am semi confused by this comment. You think Hunter ends up with a three or four year deal?