“Orioles big game shopping & most believe it's exclusively rotation”

[owknows]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

But, since most free agents sign for the most money with the exception of giving a small discount to his current team why would it matter.

The Orioles appear to be up and coming. If they make the right moves with the bats it would be easier to show the high end pitcher that the Orioles are serious. If the hitters are a couple of middling low OBP guys then it’s probably not as easy of a sell if their additions are a could of low OBP guys or reclamation projects. 

Not sure where you're expecting to add FA bats that won't be impeding players who are knocking on the door.

1B?  OF?  Maybe... And even there you've got bats coming that will probably backfill from other positions that have a logjam.

They could trade a middle infielder or two for SP... and still have a surplus that could end up at 1B or in RF.

 

 

[tntoriole]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think there’s a lot of players who really don’t want to play for a team they think has no chance to win.  That’s not to say they can’t be bought off, but it takes a very significant overpay to do it. 

I think it is much less so now that opt outs are almost always part of the major free agent deal.  No way Correa signs with Twins who have 4 playoff “appearances “ (not won even a single game) since 2010.    I don’t think Twins overpaid substantially, i just think a one year opt out and stepping up with their checkbook assertively made it happen 

 

The Os of course used to refuse opt out deals.. and frre agent pitchers avoided Camden and the unbalanced AL East.. but with balanced schedule, wall change and ownership willingness for opt outsnow all different.. i don’t see any issue being that the Os have been losers in recent years. 

[tabletop]

There have been a lot of times where a big free agent signs with a team that wasn't good the previous season(s). Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, etc.. I can go on and on and on. The most important things are how much money you offer and if the player thinks they'll be winning throughout their contract. With all of the young talent in the organization and coming off a winning season it would be an easy sell for any big ticket player to come to Baltimore much like Manny going to San Diego. You just have to offer them enough money.

[OriolesMagic83]

13 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Colorado's long-standing troubles with getting pitchers to sign there are pretty well-known, so having a pitcher's park may or may not help with luring pitchers to your team, but having a hitter's park can definitely drive them away.

Yeah, but those great Colorado schools.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, owknows said:

Not sure where you're expecting to add FA bats that won't be impeding players who are knocking on the door.

1B?  OF?  Maybe... And even there you've got bats coming that will probably backfill from other positions that have a logjam.

They could trade a middle infielder or two for SP... and still have a surplus that could end up at 1B or in RF.

 

 

We have too many low OBP players on the roster. When you hear Correa mentioned to the Orioles I’m excited for the uptick in OBP difference just using Mateo.  Then replace hays with Benintendi and you’d be going a long way in fixing your run scoring issue.

[btdart20]

30 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

We have too many low OBP players on the roster. When you hear Correa mentioned to the Orioles I’m excited for the uptick in OBP difference just using Mateo.  Then replace hays with Benintendi and you’d be going a long way in fixing your run scoring issue.

I think the O’s have OBP upside for IF in 2023 in-house.  
1. Urias/Gunnar/Westburg

2. Gunnar/Ortiz/Westburg

3. Westburg/Gunnar/Norby (or Vavra or Ortiz)

The OBP black hole of Mateo and Odor are improved by .050-.100.

Corner OF, 1B, DH have limited OBP upside in-house.  Only Cowser (or reclamation projects) on the horizon.  Mountcastle has more power upside but doubt there’s OBP without a change in his mental approach.  Was Santander’s OBP improvement sustainable?  Will the real (or healthy) Hays please stand up?  Even Mullins OBP is about average.

[Orioles0615]

49 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I think the O’s have OBP upside for IF in 2023 in-house.  
1. Urias/Gunnar/Westburg

2. Gunnar/Ortiz/Westburg

3. Westburg/Gunnar/Norby (or Vavra or Ortiz)

The OBP black hole of Mateo and Odor are improved by .050-.100.

Corner OF, 1B, DH have limited OBP upside in-house.  Only Cowser (or reclamation projects) on the horizon.  Mountcastle has more power upside but doubt there’s OBP without a change in his mental approach.  Was Santander’s OBP improvement sustainable?  Will the real (or healthy) Hays please stand up?  Even Mullins OBP is about average.

I doubt Ortiz or Westburg makes the opening day roster. You can't rely on prospects coming up and have to wait 2 months for them. Those 2 months still count when you are trying to win. They are also just prospects. 

[owknows]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

We have too many low OBP players on the roster. When you hear Correa mentioned to the Orioles I’m excited for the uptick in OBP difference just using Mateo.  Then replace hays with Benintendi and you’d be going a long way in fixing your run scoring issue.

Totally agree re. low OBP players...

I see Westburg and Ortiz and Norby as higher OBP players with some pop supplementing Gunnar in the O's infield in the very near future. And if you want to keep a top notch leather utility guy... choose between Urias and Mateo.

I see players like Correa as needlessly expensive impediments to the development of Westburg, Ortiz, and Norby. Not to mention the other high value infielders currently progressing through the system.

In the outfield I'd like to see what we have in Stowers, Cowser, and Kjerstad.

I'd focus on trading for high to mid rotation arms... maybe thinning some of the coming logjam before I added a FA infielder... But that's just me.

[emmett16]

39 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

I doubt Ortiz or Westburg makes the opening day roster. You can't rely on prospects coming up and have to wait 2 months for them. Those 2 months still count when you are trying to win. They are also just prospects. 

I thin Westburg has a pretty good shot at making the opening day roster.  

[Roll Tide]

49 minutes ago, owknows said:

Totally agree re. low OBP players...

I see Westburg and Ortiz and Norby as higher OBP players with some pop supplementing Gunnar in the O's infield in the very near future. And if you want to keep a top notch leather utility guy... choose between Urias and Mateo.

I see players like Correa as needlessly expensive impediments to the development of Westburg, Ortiz, and Norby. Not to mention the other high value infielders currently progressing through the system.

In the outfield I'd like to see what we have in Stowers, Cowser, and Kjerstad.

I'd focus on trading for high to mid rotation arms... maybe thinning some of the coming logjam before I added a FA infielder... But that's just me.

I think you’re counting your chickens on the prospects. We make that mistake as fans. 
 

If those guys break loose as you hope then we have depth to deal. If they are serious about competing that will be done with trades and free agency.

Maybe you get starter results from Gray Rod right away. We got it from Henderson and Adley after a short time. Expecting that from Westburg and Norby is naive. It just is! Hearing Elias I’m expecting the boom adding hitters and a mid tier starter like Wacha. I only say him cause it makes @Sports Guy cringe.

[tabletop]

43 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I think you’re counting your chickens on the prospects. We make that mistake as fans. 
 

If those guys break loose as you hope then we have depth to deal. If they are serious about competing that will be done with trades and free agency.

Maybe you get starter results from Gray Rod right away. We got it from Henderson and Adley after a short time. Expecting that from Westburg and Norby is naive. It just is! Hearing Elias I’m expecting the boom adding hitters and a mid tier starter like Wacha. I only say him cause it makes @Sports Guy cringe.

It's hard to imagine the prospects don't help the offense more than what they have now even if they do underperform a little bit. Last year the top three in OBP were rookies and I don't think that's a coincidence. Hopefully the days of having a lineup full of guys with OBP's in the low 300's are over.

[StottyByNature]

21 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it will be a challenge for Elias and Hyde to sell players on that.

I don't think it means we will get a discount, but perhaps it means that we won't have to overpay as we would have a few years ago.  I am sure, at least for pitchers, it is well known that the O's have excelled at helping pitchers maximize their performance through analytics this past year.

Players sign for their current contract but also want to be well set up for their next one (assuming they are still young enough.)

[Roll Tide]

30 minutes ago, tabletop said:

It's hard to imagine the prospects don't help the offense more than what they have now even if they do underperform a little bit. Last year the top three in OBP were rookies and I don't think that's a coincidence. Hopefully the days of having a lineup full of guys with OBP's in the low 300's are over.

I’m not saying your wrong….but, we could turn over The whole lineup with OBP guys (not counting Adley and Gunnar). Perhaps Mullins if you can get the .328 version and a uptick to .330 from Santander. 
 

I could see these guys coming up as they are ready and hopefully they are the OBP machines they are in the minors. BTW, Hays and Mountcastle were both .329 career OBP in the minors. So there is no guarantee. Adley was a #1 overall and Gunnar’s minor league OBP was near .380. 

[tabletop]

9 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I’m not saying your wrong….but, we could turn over The whole lineup with OBP guys (not counting Adley and Gunnar). Perhaps Mullins if you can get the .328 version and a uptick to .330 from Santander. 
 

I could see these guys coming up as they are ready and hopefully they are the OBP machines they are in the minors. BTW, Hays and Mountcastle were both .329 career OBP in the minors. So there is no guarantee. Adley was a #1 overall and Gunnar’s minor league OBP was near .380. 

I'm not sure what you mean by "so there is no guarantee". A .329 OBP in the minors is not good and was a cause for concern before they ever made the team. I think most would assume someone with a low OBP in the minors will have a low OBP in the majors and they both do.

[owknows]

38 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I could see these guys coming up as they are ready and hopefully they are the OBP machines they are in the minors. BTW, Hays and Mountcastle were both .329 career OBP in the minors. So there is no guarantee. Adley was a #1 overall and Gunnar’s minor league OBP was near .380. 

MiLB Career OBP for the players under discussion:

Ortiz .349

Westburg .371

Norby .364

Cowser .422 (yes, I had to double check that one, but it's right)

Does this mean all 4 of these guys are guaranteed MLB All Stars? No. Of course not.

Does it mean that we have a better class of prospect than we used to? Absolutely.

Are at least two of the players above likely to be MLB regulars and fill out the Oriole Infield (or supplement the Outfield)... ?  I'd bet money on it.

You suggested Correa is a worthy pursuit and should be acquired as a sure thing (and virtually assuring one of the players above never wears an Oriole uniform). Correa has a .354 OBP... not bad... but what's he gonna cost?  And for how long?  And if you get 85% of his production for 15% of his money isn't that a better play?