Braves lock up C Sean Murphy; Adley’s market value

[Frobby]

News tonight that the Braves have locked up Sean Murphy for 6/$73 mm, covering his 3 Arb years ($4/9/15 mm) and three FA years at $15 mm each, plus a $15 mm club option for one additional year.  

Meanwhile, Willson Contreras signed a FA deal for 5/$87.5 mm deal that includes a $17.5 mm option for a 6th year with a $5 mm buyout.  

What ramifications does this have for Adley Rutschman?   Well, for sure they establish a floor.  I believe the $28 mm Murphy will make in his three Arb years is the second-highest ever for a catcher.  (Posey made $37 mm in Arb 1-3.).  Murphy’s a good catcher, worth 7.9 rWAR in just over 3 years of service.   Rutschman quite possibly will be worth double that in his first three years.   I think his Arb years are looking like $8/$13/$18 mm, and FA years at Realmuto’s $23 mm/yr or higher.  

So if we offered Adley 10/$160 mm, would he bite?

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

I'd be happy if the Orioles just offered 10/$160  to show some forward thing with their homegrown talent. 

[Pickles]

I'd be shooting for something for more like 8 years.  There's no need to go ten years with a catcher, as much as I love the kid.

8/120 would be my target.

[tntoriole]

12 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I'd be happy if the Orioles just offered 10/$160  to show some forward thing with their homegrown talent. 

Well Adley doesn’t have Boras, so there is at least that. 

[Sports Guy]

I don’t want him for 10 years but I will say that if they did that, I would still be happy because it shows they are willing to spend that money.

But yea, an 8 year deal makes more sense.

However, you still ask yourself, is it the risk of the deal worth getting 3 free agent years?

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, Pickles said:

I'd be shooting for something for more like 8 years.  There's no need to go ten years with a catcher, as much as I love the kid.

8/120 would be my target.

I think Adley would be foolish to sign a contract that covers only 3 FA years.  Granted, Murphy just did, so I can’t say it’s impossible that Adley would bite.   

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I think Adley would be foolish to sign a contract that covers only 3 FA years.  Granted, Murphy just did, so I can’t say it’s impossible that Adley would bite.   

I think that Atlanta has positioned itself into a spot that players want to extend to stay there.

It's been beautiful to watch and something I've wished the O's would do for quite some time.

[emmett16]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think that Atlanta has positioned itself into a spot that players want to extend to stay there.

It's been beautiful to watch and something I've wished the O's would do for quite some time.

Fantastic organization.  Middle of the road taxes. Extremely low cost of living.  Major airline hub for easy travel.  The amount of people moving from the North East to Atlanta is staggering.  Can trade in your two bed 1 bath condo for a 5 bed 5 bath Custom house on 5 acres.  What’s not to like?  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

News tonight that the Braves have locked up Sean Murphy for 6/$73 mm, covering his 3 Arb years ($4/9/15 mm) and three FA years at $15 mm each, plus a $15 mm club option for one additional year.  

Meanwhile, Willson Contreras signed a FA deal for 5/$87.5 mm deal that includes a $17.5 mm option for a 6th year with a $5 mm buyout.  

What ramifications does this have for Adley Rutschman?   Well, for sure they establish a floor.  I believe the $28 mm Murphy will make in his three Arb years is the second-highest ever for a catcher.  (Posey made $37 mm in Arb 1-3.).  Murphy’s a good catcher, worth 7.9 rWAR in just over 3 years of service.   Rutschman quite possibly will be worth double that in his first three years.   I think his Arb years are looking like $8/$13/$18 mm, and FA years at Realmuto’s $23 mm/yr or higher.  

So if we offered Adley 10/$160 mm, would he bite?

 

I don't see any reason to think he would. He's already banked over $10 million and is on track to reach free agency prior to age 30, which would likely mean that he could reasonably ask for a 5 or 6 year deal at an absolutely astronomical AAV as long as he is still producing at even roughly his 2022 level. Why would he pass on that opportunity and tie himself down to an organization that he has already watched trade away several good players in the middle of a playoff race and then follow up an 83 win season by signing a bunch of reclamation projects to one year deals?

He appears to be the competitive type and his present organization does not seem to share that drive.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I don't see any reason to think he would. He's already banked over $10 million and is on track to reach free agency prior to age 30, which would likely mean that he could reasonably ask for a 5 or 6 year deal at an absolutely astronomical AAV as long as he is still producing at even roughly his 2022 level. Why would he pass on that opportunity and tie himself down to an organization that he has already watched trade away several good players in the middle of a playoff race and then follow up an 83 win season by signing a bunch of reclamation projects to one year deals?

He appears to be the competitive type and his present organization does not seem to share that drive.

But hey, it's not like they delayed his debut in the majors to game his service time and potentially cost him tens of millions.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But hey, it's not like they delayed his debut in the majors to game his service time and potentially cost him tens of millions.

There's also that, yeah.

[emmett16]

7 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I don't see any reason to think he would. He's already banked over $10 million and is on track to reach free agency prior to age 30, which would likely mean that he could reasonably ask for a 5 or 6 year deal at an absolutely astronomical AAV as long as he is still producing at even roughly his 2022 level. Why would he pass on that opportunity and tie himself down to an organization that he has already watched trade away several good players in the middle of a playoff race and then follow up an 83 win season by signing a bunch of reclamation projects to one year deals?

He appears to be the competitive type and his present organization does not seem to share that drive.

The time value of money is a thing.  A creative contract that pays out a big bonus and larger chunks early in the contract could be appealing to someone playing the most physically demanding position in baseball.  

[JR Oriole]

50 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Fantastic organization.  Middle of the road taxes. Extremely low cost of living.  Major airline hub for easy travel.  The amount of people moving from the North East to Atlanta is staggering.  Can trade in your two bed 1 bath condo for a 5 bed 5 bath Custom house on 5 acres.  What’s not to like?  

I have lived in the Atlanta suburbs for the past 13 1/2 years and for over 20 years overall.  And everything above is absolutely true.  I haven't taken a connecting flight since 2005 I think, as pretty much everything is a direct flight from Atlanta. The weather is way more appealing also, as being cold and snowed in is really overrated.  

I love what the Braves have done with their young talent. I hated seeing Freddie and Dansby go though, so hopefully that doesn't bite them.  They were absolute fan favorites.  

Hard to imagine the Os doing anything more than a 1 year deal....with anyone.  In fact, I can see our front office inventing the one-year marriage contract.  Can you imagine?  Each year, both partners sign a one year deal.  And maybe there is an opt-out after 6 months.  Could totally change the industry.  

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think Adley would be foolish to sign a contract that covers only 3 FA years.  Granted, Murphy just did, so I can’t say it’s impossible that Adley would bite.   

I think that’s fair to say.  Adley is a better talent than Murphy too, so the chances of him getting a bigger contract around age 30 is higher with him.

 

[Moose Milligan]

Seeing this, I would simply like the Orioles to take the Braves approach of locking up talent early.  That definitely starts with Adley and probably Gunnar.

This is what the Braves are good at and they'll most likely continue to field great teams through the end of the decade.  Trading for Murphy was a great move on their part, then locking him up with a good deal was an even better move.  

I'd like to see the Orioles be this forward thinking and fully commit to their homegrown talent...or really, any talent in their mid 20s they acquire who can be identified as a core piece.  The Murphy deal will look like a bargain in the next couple of years if he continues to play at this level.  8/120 for Adley would be a bargain, too.