Jordan Westburg 2023

[orioles22]

17 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

It’s not the same game as it was then. It would be like comparing what Jonny U did to what Lamar Jackson does. Or like comparing Chamberlain to Jokic. It’s the same sport but a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT GAME. Very little then can be compared to now, including how prospects are handled. I guarantee you that is not even a comp being used in Sig’s models. And it is not even a thought on Elias’ mind.

Of course it's not a comp in anyone's models. It was 1971. I didn't say it was on Elias' mind. It was on my mind. As I said earlier, Westburg should play every day and can't in Baltimore until a trade is made. Grich couldn't play every day while Johnson, Belanger and Robinson were there. Then Johnson was traded and Grich could play every day. It's baseball and it happens every year somewhere.

[ShoelesJoe]

The Westburg situation reminds me a little of how the Red Sox treated Wade Boggs as he was coming up through their minor leagues back in the day. Boggs spent a year at A+, two years at AA, another two years at AAA, and in the entire five seasons (600+ minor league games) his lowest batting average for a season was .306 and his lowest OB% was .396. He was finally promoted to the MLB at 24 years of age in 1982, hitting .349 / .406 / .441 for the season, and a lot of baseball people were asking why it took Boston so long to find a spot for him on the team. In a perfect world Boggs would have probably been in the majors after three minor league seasons instead of five. The fact that the Red Sox already had 25 year old Carney Lansford as their 3rd baseman probably had something to do with that (another similarity to the Westburg situation), but good teams somehow find a spot for their good minor league players, especially players that can get on base around 40% of the time. 

[Safelykept]

13 hours ago, Alasdaire said:

I don't think it's good business to send the same message that has always been sent because we now live in player-empowerment era. How the athletes internalize these moves and the reputation the organization develops are things I hope the front office is proactive about/mindful of as they handle these promotions.

Its been a player empowerment for the better part of 50 years. Again, tough game tough business. Stay ready Jordan.

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

It’s not the same game as it was then. It would be like comparing what Jonny U did to what Lamar Jackson does. Or like comparing Chamberlain to Jokic. It’s the same sport but a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT GAME. Very little then can be compared to now, including how prospects are handled. I guarantee you that is not even a comp being used in Sig’s models. And it is not even a thought on Elias’ mind.

What are you even talking about?   The only fundamental change in the game that affects when players get called up are that there are more incentives to delay a player’s debut now than there were in Grich’s time, due to free agency, arbitration and service time rules that didn’t exist then.   There is more (financial) reason to keep Westburg down than there was to keep Grich (and Baylor) down.  

[Bemorewins]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What are you even talking about?   The only fundamental change in the game that affects when players get called up are that there are more incentives to delay a player’s debut now than there were in Grich’s time, due to free agency, arbitration and service time rules that didn’t exist then.   There is more (financial) reason to keep Westburg down than there was to keep Grich (and Baylor) down.  

I think that you may have me confused with someone else. I’m not arguing that they need to bring him up right now. I think I was making a comment that there is very little in the game that is applicable to the time when Bobby Grich was playing baseball including the people who make the decisions and their thought processes. That’s what I was talking about.

[Safelykept]

13 hours ago, TopGunnar said:

It’s such bad faith operating by Orioles FO. Westburg deserves to be in the big leagues. More so than Ortiz( I know he’s in AAA)

Maybe not, its called a 40 man roster and the management of

[Orioles0615]

On 6/4/2023 at 9:41 AM, Bemorewins said:

Is that all you think of his value? I believe he can be packaged in a trade to retrieve a better starter than anything we currently have. He’s a borderline top 50 prospect right now, we only have 2 rated higher (well much higher), but still. I think he carries a good amount of trade value given the very nice numbers that he has put up at AAA.

No I think he has good value. I think Elias is going to overpay for some “veteran innings eater” starter and not get what we actually need 

[Filmstudy]

19 hours ago, orioles22 said:

Of course it's not a comp in anyone's models. It was 1971. I didn't say it was on Elias' mind. It was on my mind. As I said earlier, Westburg should play every day and can't in Baltimore until a trade is made. Grich couldn't play every day while Johnson, Belanger and Robinson were there. Then Johnson was traded and Grich could play every day. It's baseball and it happens every year somewhere.

In 1972, Grich didn't play much in April (he played 4 of the first 18 games), but essentially played every game thereafter, finishing with 133.  That was with all of Johnson, Belanger, and Brooks on the team.  Perhaps like 2023, Grich had an easy time forcing his way into the lineup with OPSs for Johnson (.655), Brooks (.644), and Belanger (.482) "ahead" of him.  It's not the only time this happened with the Orioles, who 2 years earlier brought up Rettenmund with Blair, Buford, and Robinson all ahead of him.

For similar reasons, I'd advocate bringing Westburg to the majors and seeing who he should beat out on the fly, as was done with Grich.  The main change in the game that makes it difficult is the ratio of hitters to pitchers on the ML roster.  It was 16-9 or 15-10 in 1972 and it's 13-13 for a lot of teams today.

I'm not advocating the Orioles trade Westburg, but I also don't think playing him in the majors is likely to degrade his trade value and in fact it's more likely to increase it.

[Can_of_corn]

12 hours ago, Frobby said:

What are you even talking about?   The only fundamental change in the game that affects when players get called up are that there are more incentives to delay a player’s debut now than there were in Grich’s time, due to free agency, arbitration and service time rules that didn’t exist then.   There is more (financial) reason to keep Westburg down than there was to keep Grich (and Baylor) down.  

It was also easier to stockpile talent when you didn't have to worry about your established players having the freedom to play for other teams once they reached a certain seniority.

[bluedog]

2 hours ago, Orioles0615 said:

No I think he has good value. I think Elias is going to overpay for some “veteran innings eater” starter and not get what we actually need 

Given that Elias traded 3 top 12 prospects for Justin Verlander when he was with the Astros in 2017, I don't know why anyone would think he's going to waste top prospects on a mediocre starter. His historical behavior doesn't bear that out. (And I don't count former #16 Hernaiz as a top prospect)

It's eerie how Elias' time with the O's has mirrored his time with the Stros: https://www.thedrummeyangle.com/post/mike-elias-the-man-behind-the-curtain

I will be surprised if Elias doesn't pull off a similar trade here either this year or next.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, bluedog said:

Given that Elias traded 3 top 12 prospects for Justin Verlander when he was with the Astros in 2017, I don't know why anyone would think he's going to waste top prospects on a mediocre starter.

No he didn't.

[bluedog]

35 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

No he didn't.

Okay let me rephrase. Since Elias was a part of the Astros front office that Traded for Verlander in 2017...better?

[Orioles0615]

40 minutes ago, bluedog said:

Given that Elias traded 3 top 12 prospects for Justin Verlander when he was with the Astros in 2017, I don't know why anyone would think he's going to waste top prospects on a mediocre starter. His historical behavior doesn't bear that out. (And I don't count former #16 Hernaiz as a top prospect)

It's eerie how Elias' time with the O's has mirrored his time with the Stros: https://www.thedrummeyangle.com/post/mike-elias-the-man-behind-the-curtain

I will be surprised if Elias doesn't pull off a similar trade here either this year or next.

Elias didnt do this. he was never a GM in houston. If you are giving all this credit then he should have been suspended for cheating

Edited June 6, 2023 by Orioles0615

[7Mo]

12 hours ago, bluedog said:

Given that Elias traded 3 top 12 prospects for Justin Verlander when he was with the Astros in 2017, I don't know why anyone would think he's going to waste top prospects on a mediocre starter. His historical behavior doesn't bear that out. (And I don't count former #16 Hernaiz as a top prospect)

It's eerie how Elias' time with the O's has mirrored his time with the Stros: https://www.thedrummeyangle.com/post/mike-elias-the-man-behind-the-curtain

I will be surprised if Elias doesn't pull off a similar trade here either this year or next.

As much as I enjoy trying to figure out what Elias will do based on what happened with the Astros, or what the Rays have and are doing, I think there are very different circumstances here. One, Luhnow was very aggressive in everything he did. I don't see what that trade tells us about an Elias preference. Two, it's been said that Sig was very much against trading prospects for established players and three, the Astros had intentions of paying big money to retain established guys. 

Trying to read tea leaves, or take wild guesses, I'd say something like the Rays trading Willy Adames for JP Feyereisen and Drew Rasumssen fits more what Elias will try to do.

Or a different approach like a Hernaiz type for someone like Jordan Montgomery. 

Not trying to argue with your post, just my thoughts, I can't see Elias trading top 10 prospects for veterans but I could see him trading a top 10 player for someone he considers a top 10 prospect pitcher, regardless of the guys actual ranking with his organization. 

[Bemorewins]

27 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

As much as I enjoy trying to figure out what Elias will do based on what happened with the Astros, or what the Rays have and are doing, I think there are very different circumstances here. One, Luhnow was very aggressive in everything he did. I don't see what that trade tells us about an Elias preference. Two, it's been said that Sig was very much against trading prospects for established players and three, the Astros had intentions of paying big money to retain established guys. 

Trying to read tea leaves, or take wild guesses, I'd say something like the Rays trading Willy Adames for JP Feyereisen and Drew Rasumssen fits more what Elias will try to do.

Or a different approach like a Hernaiz type for someone like Jordan Montgomery. 

Not trying to argue with your post, just my thoughts, I can't see Elias trading top 10 prospects for veterans but I could see him trading a top 10 player for someone he considers a top 10 prospect pitcher, regardless of the guys actual ranking with his organization. 

I agree with your larger premise in that comparing other teams situations to this one is more apples to oranges. But IMO it is for a reason that you left unstated... We have a HORRIBLE owner. I am not very sorry that winning and spending is even a priority for JA. He seems to be focused more on how to maximize profits and do some community development. Thus until proven otherwise, even though we may speculate on trades for vets, I have seen nothing in JA's history or handling of the team that he would even green light adding  a contract like Goldschmidt.

I don't believe Elias prefers not to spend because of some philosophy he has, it is more of the case that he cannot spend on make big moves given ownership. I know some have spun his comments last trade deadline and into the offseason about "lift off" meaning something else. But IMO it seems kind of clear that ownership (as usual) served as an impediment to him adding to the team in a meaningful way. No one can convince that when Elias first made the comments regarding "lift off" that what he had in mind was an offseason of Gibson and Frazier. Of course, I could be wrong, but it just doesn't appear that he is in an environment where he has full ownership investment and support.

Finally, I don't see players that we have that we could trade for a top pitching prospect, unless you either want to move Mullins (which would be a horrible idea to me) or if you are proposing a prospect for prospect trade which rarely happens. Even so, that is more of a continue the rebuild move because as we have seen over the last few years with some of the best prospects in the game, they take time to develop. I think there is a very small chance that a pitching prospect can come and help in a meaningful way this year. More chances than not the performance that you get may be somewhere in the realm of Grayson's.