Seth Johnson is Healthy

[oriolediehard]

Per Jake Rill on MLB Orioles Beat:

“But I think it was good to be able to get into games to show me what I needed to work on and how to be a gamesman again.”

Seth Johnson
During the offseason and early in spring, Johnson’s focus has been on command and pitch mixing. The best offering in his four-pitch repertoire is a fastball that sits at 94-96 mph and can touch 98 mph. He also uses a slider, curveball and changeup, all effective pitches.

Over his 10 1/3 innings last season, Johnson registered 14 strikeouts, but he also had a 1.35 WHIP with five walks. He’s still learning when it’s time not to force one of his offspeed pitches that may not be working on a given day and instead turn to one of his other offerings.

On Tuesday, Johnson took the Ed Smith Stadium mound for live batting practice and had mixed results. He gave up a hard-hit ball off the center-field wall to Jackson Holliday, but he also struck out MLB Pipeline’s No. 1 overall prospect later in the session.

Everybody in camp is intrigued by the potential of Johnson’s arm and what the future could hold for the righty, who was selected by Tampa Bay with the No. 40 overall pick in Competitive Balance Round A of the 2019 MLB Draft.

“It’s a guy that’s got a really, really good arm,” manager Brandon Hyde said. “The rehab has gone extremely well, and he’s throwing the ball really well out here. A really talented kid.”

Seth Johnson
General manager Mike Elias also name-dropped Johnson on the first day of workouts last Thursday, when he was talking about the “real interesting pitchers” among the prospects in big league camp.

Could Johnson pitch his way onto Baltimore’s Opening Day roster? Anything is possible this time of year. He’ll get plenty of opportunities to showcase his stuff during Grapefruit League action, and he could participate in Spring Breakout, the prospect showcase that will pit O’s youngsters against the Pirates’ blue-chip talent on March 14.

But Johnson owns only three innings of Double-A experience and has never pitched at the Triple-A level. He understands he’s likely heading to a Minor League affiliate to begin 2024.

Regardless, Johnson is eager for the upcoming season and ready to continue his ascension up the system.

“I feel like I’m in a good spot,” Johnson said. “I trust the team’s judgment in whether I’m ready or not. I mean, you miss a whole year and get 10 innings, it’s kind of a lot to say that I’m ready to play at the highest level. I’m just going to go out there and try to control what I can control and see what happens.”

[Frobby]

We knew he was healthy last summer, no?   He pitched in five games in August/September and was throwing 96, I believe.  

[banks703]

I am paying very close attention to SJ's spring. I am a huge fan and could see him make similar improvements as Bradish. The stuff is really good. Can he and the O's hone it in and salvage his potential? I think they can/will. 

[RVAOsFan]

Johnson only had one season as a college pitcher at Campbell before being drafted, prior to that he was a position player.  He has a total of 66IP in college and 148IP in the minors.  I am very excited to see what the O's can do with this guys talent but I don't expect or think he should be rushed into the major leagues any time soon.  I hope he starts in Bowie and ends the season pitching well in Norfolk. 

[interloper]

Guy just needs innings. I think he'll be a bullpen option late in the year if he's doing well. 

I expect him to be in AAA by June or July maybe? 

We acquired him two days before his TJS and he had a normal recovery of about 12 months.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

Guy just needs innings. I think he'll be a bullpen option late in the year if he's doing well. 

I expect him to be in AAA by June or July maybe? 

We acquired him two days before his TJS and he had a normal recovery of about 12 months.

Johnson, McDermott, and Povich, could all be big time arms for us out of the pen at various points of the season. Power arms. 

[Jim'sKid26]

Interesting guy. He's not built like a typical SP, 6'1" 205. However, he misses bats. In both college and in MiLB he averages a little over 11 K/9. Now he walks a few too many dudes, Bowie was 6.0 BB/9, but the stuff appears to play. Of note, walks were not as big of an issue when he was with Tampa Organization, pre-TJS.

There is no advanced data from Baseball Savant but if he's throwing 4 pitches effectively and touching 98 post surgery, that's a big plus. I would love to see his advanced metrics from this spring. Gotta believe he starts in Bowie and will get to Norfolk soon if he's successful. I wonder if he will be on a strict pitch count.

[sportsfan8703]

I know it’s good to keep developing these guys as starters as much as possible. Also, pitching as a starter helps then develop pitches and learn how to get hitters out, but… Seth Johnson is a bit of a different story. He only threw something like 20 innings in all of HS. He was a position player. He pitched only 66 IP in NCAA once his position player career was looking done. TB drafted him in the 1st rd based on projection. Well he’s only thrown 150ish IP in pro ball. 

TLDR - This dude has only thrown 235 IP since HS-now. He’s 25.156, maybe it’s time to just scrap starting and try him as a reliever. Apparently he can touch 98 on his FB, with a swing and miss SL. See pic below,

 

[btdart20]

2024 is the Year of the Pitcher!  The last few years we've had a few hitters pop off.  We're at a bit of a crossroads with the org now.  A ton of talented pitchers (velo and/or stuff) but with question marks were brought in over the last couple of years (especially from the Mancini/Lopez trades and 2023 draft).  I hope/anticipate/expect a couple/few of them to take big steps.

 

Regarding Johnson:  I'm excited about him, but I have no MLB expectations for him in 2024.  I hope he stays on the SP track of development just based on org need.  He's behind Povich and McD for MLB time IMO but the upside might be higher.

Just stay healthy, build arm strength, and hone your craft!

[sportsfan8703]

4 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

2024 is the Year of the Pitcher!  The last few years we've had a few hitters pop off.  We're at a bit of a crossroads with the org now.  A ton of talented pitchers (velo and/or stuff) but with question marks were brought in over the last couple of years (especially from the Mancini/Lopez trades and 2023 draft).  I hope/anticipate/expect a couple/few of them to take big steps.

 

Regarding Johnson:  I'm excited about him, but I have no MLB expectations for him in 2024.  I hope he stays on the SP track of development just based on org need.  He's behind Povich and McD for MLB time IMO but the upside might be higher.

Just stay healthy, build arm strength, and hone your craft!

A shift to the bullpen and then you could start having expectations for him other than “just staying healthy.”

We have three guys that all throw upper 90s that we could use out of the pen at points this year to strengthen the weakened bullpen with the loss of Bautista and now Wells/Irvin. Those three are Johnson, McDermott, and Povich. 

It could give us an option of doing a “bullpen game” against a tough lineup where we don’t want to use Irvin. 

[btdart20]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

A shift to the bullpen and then you could start having expectations for him other than “just staying healthy.”

Are there only so many bullets where limiting the wear/tear matters?  Or do the pitches matter during the muscular/skeletal growth years to build arm strength/health?  Does it matter on this side of the first TJ?

Moving to the BP is a fine option/opinion.  I'm just stating my preference short of any science that really supports either path forward.  I tend to play the long game anyway, so take it for what it's worth...

[Jim'sKid26]

47 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

A shift to the bullpen and then you could start having expectations for him other than “just staying healthy.”

We have three guys that all throw upper 90s that we could use out of the pen at points this year to strengthen the weakened bullpen with the loss of Bautista and now Wells/Irvin. Those three are Johnson, McDermott, and Povich. 

It could give us an option of doing a “bullpen game” against a tough lineup where we don’t want to use Irvin. 

Until Johnson has better command/control I would be very surprised to see him in Baltimore. Yes he throws hard but he walked way too many dudes at AA last year. He's going to need to hit the target a little better or he's going to he lit up at the MLB level. 

[sportsfan8703]

44 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Are there only so many bullets where limiting the wear/tear matters?  Or do the pitches matter during the muscular/skeletal growth years to build arm strength/health?  Does it matter on this side of the first TJ?

Moving to the BP is a fine option/opinion.  I'm just stating my preference short of any science that really supports either path forward.  I tend to play the long game anyway, so take it for what it's worth...

It’s definitely the long game here. He’s 25.5 years old and only thrown 230 IP from HS varsity through now. 

He could be Givens 2.0 and be a real X factor for us during this run. 

[Fiver6565]

18 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Until Johnson has better command/control I would be very surprised to see him in Baltimore. Yes he throws hard but he walked way too many dudes at AA last year. He's going to need to hit the target a little better or he's going to he lit up at the MLB level. 

You've said this twice now, but he threw three innings in Bowie, per the chart above.  Three.  Are we really worried about his walk rate over the course of three innings?  You said yourself it wasn't an issue in the TB system, so after three post-surgery innings, it suddenly is?

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Until Johnson has better command/control I would be very surprised to see him in Baltimore. Yes he throws hard but he walked way too many dudes at AA last year. He's going to need to hit the target a little better or he's going to he lit up at the MLB level. 

He walked two batters in three innings at AA.  That’s got you worried?

His walk rates in 2021-22 were respectable (3.4/3.7).  I’m looking for something in that range this year.