Colton Cowser 2022

[deward]

From Baseball America

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/minor-league-hitters-with-traits-to-target-in-fantasy-leagues/

Colton Cowser, OF, Orioles 

The beginning of the 2022 season was unkind to Cowser as he struggled over the opening two months, hitting .243/.389/.375 with an uncharacteristic 31.6% strikeout rate. Cowser then turned it on in June to earn a promotion to Double-A Bowie later that month. In Bowie Cowser really turned it on, slugging eight home runs over his first 28 games. His strikeout rate has dropped to 24% since June 1, with a 15.3% walk rate. Cowser’s combination of elite swing decisions, blossoming impact and defensive value could see him turn into another young major league regular for the Orioles.

[Sports Guy]

13 hours ago, seak05 said:

The speed some of you want players to move through the system is amusing. He’s barely had 200 plate attempts at double A, and he’s striking out more then he’s walking.
 

If his babip was a more normal .350, he’d only be hitting around .270-.275 right now. Perfectly respectable but not dominating. 

How many players walk more than strikeout?

If he was hitting 275 and had an OPS in the 850-900 range, I would still say he should be in AAA.  

He was an advanced college hitter, perhaps the most advanced pure hitter in the 2021 draft.  You can argue that he should have started the year in Bowie to begin with.

It has nothing to do with rushing the player.  That’s a bs fallacy.  It has everything to do with placing them in the league they belong in.  He belongs in AAA right now and his play in AA is showing that.

No one is saying he’s going to sustain a 450 BABiP.  No one is saying he is going to just go to AAA and dominate there.  All people are saying is that he needs to be moved up and challenged.

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

How many players walk more than strikeout?

If he was hitting 275 and had an OPS in the 850-900 range, I would still say he should be in AAA.  

He was an advanced college hitter, perhaps the most advanced pure hitter in the 2021 draft.  You can argue that he should have started the year in Bowie to begin with.

It has nothing to do with rushing the player.  That’s a bs fallacy.  It has everything to do with placing them in the league they belong in.  He belongs in AAA right now and his play in AA is showing that.

No one is saying he’s going to sustain a 450 BABiP.  No one is saying he is going to just go to AAA and dominate there.  All people are saying is that he needs to be moved up and challenged.

Gunnar did at AA so that is now the standard.

[Hallas]

I know we don't have access to batted ball data for the minors but does that mean we revert to caring about BABIP?  I know I mostly stopped caring about that as a luck factor in the majors.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Hallas said:

I know we don't have access to batted ball data for the minors but does that mean we revert to caring about BABIP?  I know I mostly stopped caring about that as a luck factor in the majors.

When it is way outside of the norms, I think you care about it at all levels.

The thing is, we don’t have the proper context in the minors because we don’t have the EV stats and stuff like that.

[waroriole]

 

[Hallas]

2 minutes ago, waroriole said:

 

Well that was a lot of bellyaching over nothing lmao

[Hallas]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

When it is way outside of the norms, I think you care about it at all levels.

The thing is, we don’t have the proper context in the minors because we don’t have the EV stats and stuff like that.

I figured as much regarding minor leaguers.  But I really don't care about BABIP in the majors.  We have EV and launch angle to tell us if a guy's getting lucky.  Exit velocity and launch angle stabilize quite quickly, like 150 PA for EV and 50 PA for launch angle, so I'm using those way before BABIP in the majors to determine luck.

[Just Regular]

The scoreboard with Colton Cowser finishing Leg 3 of the Alex Bregman "I spit on your Chase pitches" development path.

Minor League Games Played in the four full season levels.

Bregman 29-37-62-18

Cowser 25-62-49-??

At max fun, maybe Cowser provides a better answer than Stowers or Vavra for this season's biggest games?

[LookinUp]

25 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

At max fun, maybe Cowser provides a better answer than Stowers or Vavra for this season's biggest games?

He very well might, but he won't get that opportunity this year I'd wager. Next year he might end up the O's most valuable major league outfielder though when it's all said and done.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

He very well might, but he won't get that opportunity this year I'd wager. Next year he might end up the O's most valuable major league outfielder though when it's all said and done.

If he plays well at AAA this last month, I wonder how real his chances are of starting next year in Baltimore from day 1.

[LookinUp]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

If he plays well at AAA this last month, I wonder how real his chances are of starting next year in Baltimore from day 1.

Yup. You have to wonder. 

The O's have decisions to make with Hays, Mullins, Stowers and (less so because he can DH, IMO) Santander this offseason. Don't have to decide on them all of course, but Cowser is knocking on the door. Haskin, Kjerstad and others are likely several months or a year at least behind.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

Yup. You have to wonder. 

The O's have decisions to make with Hays, Mullins, Stowers and (less so because he can DH, IMO) Santander this offseason. Don't have to decide on them all of course, but Cowser is knocking on the door. Haskin, Kjerstad and others are likely several months or a year at least behind.

The Os have a legit pool of probably at least 7-10 players that they can, should or need to trade out of this offseason to address needs.

It will be really interesting to see how Elias handles this.

[Just Regular]

I hope good.     Adley's soft tissue issue, minor for his long term outlook, muddied the water this year.

If the Make the Game more Competitive incentives the MLBPA got into this CBA are working, it should manifest in guys like Cowser making Opening Day rosters with Clubs having enough incentive to pursue that draft pick as a valuable alternative to gaming the Player for 6.75 years of control*

*non Rookie of the Year category.

I believe Bats like Gunnar-Westburg-Cowser have better award winning odds if they get as large a cup of coffee as possible.    The infinite virtual reality reps they can take this offseason will be richer with that context.

Its incredibly fun for August 29 that today we can't rule out a lineup like CF Mullins, C Adley, 3B Gunnar, DH Santander, RF Cowser, LF Hays, 1B Mountcastle, SS Mateo, 2B Westburg back in Cleveland in early October.    Granted it is all Left high, and all Right low, but the Guardians have one medium left-handed middle reliever, so sure try Sam Hentges for 3 batters with Adley-Santander switching all you want, Francona.    I always figured we'd be looking over the makeup of playoff bullpens around Labor Day this year.

Home Field Advantage has been somewhat tame on weeknights...I hope that will change with Toronto in for the Labor Day doubleheader.    160-162 aren't sure to matter yet, but after this rather random CLE-OAK week, those four games in three days will set a September tone.

 

 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

Yup. You have to wonder. 

The O's have decisions to make with Hays, Mullins, Stowers and (less so because he can DH, IMO) Santander this offseason. Don't have to decide on them all of course, but Cowser is knocking on the door. Haskin, Kjerstad and others are likely several months or a year at least behind.

I think the decision could be approached in terms of who are the better players to stay not necessarily who are the younger to push the guys with service off the roster.

The better players should stay, then the excess can be traded? 

At some point, because we have so much minor league talent, there is going to be a logjam. But that’s a good thing in my opinion because that is what gives you great depth and what will allows us in the future to acquire elite big league talent that can push us over the top for a World Series push. Maybe even starting next year?