Cease vs everyone else

[sportsfan8703]

Cease also pushes Wells to the pen. Which is exactly what we need. Wells in the pen in 2024 might keep him healthy, and return us the same value as a Stephenson. Which in turn that helps Cano stay fresh.

Bradish, Grayson, Cease, Means, Kremer

Kimbrel, Cano, Wells, Coloumbe… Tate, Perez, Baumann, Irvin

As good as Westburg is, we replace him with Joey Ortiz. Cowser/Kjerstad are both slated for AAA anyways unless there is an injury. Gotta have faith in Joey Ortiz, and the other prospects here. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Some of you are really underrating Cease. I’m not saying he’s going to be the 2022 version but he’s better than some are saying and obviously Elias values him, which should say something.

We don’t know exactly how much Elias values him.  We’ve read the Orioles’ interest is “sincere.”   We’ve heard Getz say that he is “not close” to a deal with any team.  Lord knows what all that means.

[CaptainRedbeard]

14 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

As good as Westburg is, we replace him with Joey Ortiz. Cowser/Kjerstad are both slated for AAA anyways unless there is an injury. Gotta have faith in Joey Ortiz, and the other prospects here. 

I would absolutely trade Westburg instead of Ortiz and call up Ortiz. But I disagree with you on Cowser/Kjerstad. One of them is slated to be on the MLB team Opening Day and get essentially a full slate of ABs through working in with all of the OF/1B/DH options. And whichever one is ticketed for AAA to start the year is still likely to get a lot of MLB time in 2024, through injuries or from regression by O’Hearn or struggles by Hays/Mountcastle against RHP (or just simply by Cowser/Kjerstad establishing themselves as being better). And in 2025 Santander and O’Hearn will be gone and both Kjerstad and Cowser will be full time starters, with both Hays and Mullins out the door the following offseason. 

I also just don’t think Cease is worth one of Westburg/Ortiz and one of Cowser/Kjerstad from the Orioles’ perspective. I think he could ultimately be dealt for that level of value from a more aggressive big market team and it’s reasonable if the White Sox are holding out for a comparable package, but if Snell/Montgomery sign and no team is willing to put something like that on the table for Cease then the White Sox are in a bad spot. They really should trade him this offseason, he’s not likely to increase his trade value by the trade deadline going from 2 yrs remaining to 1.5 yrs. They also risk him getting injured or not rebounding from 2023 and really tanking his value. Holding Cease would be banking on him returning much closer to his 2022 form and a more aggressive team materializing at the trade deadline, and even then his trade value is going to still decline based on the 0.5 years off his team control. It was a bad call not trading him at the deadline in 2023 and they would only compound that mistake by not trading him for the best package they can get this offseason. 

Even though Cease is the clear best option available for the Orioles, the Orioles don’t have to force themselves into a trade where they give up Cowser/Kjerstad when they are both slated to be big parts of the MLB team in 2024 and especially 2025+. The White Sox have their backs more against the wall and may ultimately take a deal of Westburg or Ortiz + a package of lesser prospects from the Norby/Beavers/McDermott/Povich tiers onward etc. (with more value additional packaged with Ortiz than Westburg).

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We don’t know exactly how much Elias values him.  We’ve read the Orioles’ interest is “sincere.”   We’ve heard Getz say that he is “not close” to a deal with any team.  Lord knows what all that means.

But we do know that he values him and wants him. It’s clear he feels he’s an upgrade and a piece that will help us.

What he’s willing to trade who knows but if he feels he can help us, I would assume he thinks he’s better than a 97 ERA+ pitcher, which is what he was last year.

[Sports Guy]

 

[ThisIsBirdland]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

 

Well I'm sure it's good news for the White Sox somehow.

[Sports Guy]

Even if the Yankees sign Stroman, they could still go after Cease…or still sign Snell.

[deward]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Cease also pushes Wells to the pen. Which is exactly what we need. Wells in the pen in 2024 might keep him healthy, and return us the same value as a Stephenson. Which in turn that helps Cano stay fresh.

Bradish, Grayson, Cease, Means, Kremer

Kimbrel, Cano, Wells, Coloumbe… Tate, Perez, Baumann, Irvin

As good as Westburg is, we replace him with Joey Ortiz. Cowser/Kjerstad are both slated for AAA anyways unless there is an injury. Gotta have faith in Joey Ortiz, and the other prospects here. 

I'm not convinced that Westburg and Ortiz are interchangeable parts of equal value. I also would rather see Elias trade Hays to open a spot for Cowser and have Kjerstad around in case O'Hearn turns back into a pumpkin. 

[LTO's]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Even if the Yankees sign Stroman, they could still go after Cease…or still sign Snell.

They need to pay Soto. I would find it extremely unlikely that they would sign Snell as well. They just paid Rodon too. 

Also doesn't seem anything like Cashman to trade more high value prospects after already doing so earlier this offseason. This isn't the Yankees of old. 

[Warehouse]

On 1/7/2024 at 5:27 PM, RZNJ said:

He turns 26 in June and they keep comparing him to Nick Madrigal.   

Madrigal is such a mindless comp for Ortiz.  They are on the opposite ends of the spectrum for exit velocity/hard hit rate and have different defensive profiles as well. 

[ThisIsBirdland]

15 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

Madrigal is such a mindless comp for Ortiz.  They are on the opposite ends of the spectrum for exit velocity/hard hit rate and have different defensive profiles as well. 

Lately their fans are more fired up that Ortiz isn't included on MLB Pipeline's Executive Poll on player defensive tools. Interesting that Holliday is listed on that poll but not Ortiz btw.

[Safelykept]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I just see it as you can’t have it both ways and you most certainly can’t have it all. Nobody wants to see Kremer start a playoff game again. Everyone loves Joey Ortiz. We need an ACE. JA won’t spend money. We like our guys. We like our prospects.

So since we love Ortiz so much, then that means we can handle trading Westburg. Plus we have Mayo and Holliday, who could be both be really hard to send down after ST. Horvath and Wagner are around AA as 3B.

Then for trading one of Cowser/Kjerstad, we’d still have one of Cowser/Kjerstad post trade. Beavers is here. Stowers is here. Mayo could see some RF. Horvath, Wagner, and Norby, could move to OF. Fabian could play some COF.

We also have three first rd picks and the #8 overall bonus pool in the upcoming draft. To back fill in what we give up.

Westburg and Cowser/Kjerstad gets it done. I don’t care if people here thinks that’s too much. That probably means it’s actually enough to get a deal done. If you love Joey Ortiz so much, well let’s play him here. 

JA wont spend money? I wont go to sleep on him just. Remember he was the one who hired Mike Elias, and has spent 10s of millions on internal modern analytics, scouting and player development. Thats part of it another part is the 10s of millions hes spent to bring the orioles into dramatic relevance (VS.  5 years ago) in the international player market. Another part is every ARB eligible Orioles was tendered (= pay raise) Has he extended anybody? not yet.What hes hasn't done (other than the early PA years) is do an Orioles specialty since the late 90,s handing one stupid ass FA contract right after the other> Hopefully those days are over for us. He should be applauded for that    

[RVAOsFan]

29 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

JA wont spend money? I wont go to sleep on him just. Remember he was the one who hired Mike Elias, and has spent 10s of millions on internal modern analytics, scouting and player development. Thats part of it another part is the 10s of millions hes spent to bring the orioles into dramatic relevance (VS.  5 years ago) in the international player market. Another part is every ARB eligible Orioles was tendered (= pay raise) Has he extended anybody? not yet.What hes hasn't done (other than the early PA years) is do an Orioles specialty since the late 90,s handing one stupid ass FA contract right after the other> Hopefully those days are over for us. He should be applauded for that    

I was hoping we would get an insider to pop into this thread and give us some backroom secrets on the offseason negotiations and plans.  I had no idea JA himself was going to pop in and give himself a pat on the back.  Welcome!  

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

I would absolutely trade Westburg instead of Ortiz and call up Ortiz. But I disagree with you on Cowser/Kjerstad. One of them is slated to be on the MLB team Opening Day and get essentially a full slate of ABs through working in with all of the OF/1B/DH options. And whichever one is ticketed for AAA to start the year is still likely to get a lot of MLB time in 2024, through injuries or from regression by O’Hearn or struggles by Hays/Mountcastle against RHP (or just simply by Cowser/Kjerstad establishing themselves as being better). And in 2025 Santander and O’Hearn will be gone and both Kjerstad and Cowser will be full time starters, with both Hays and Mullins out the door the following offseason. 

I also just don’t think Cease is worth one of Westburg/Ortiz and one of Cowser/Kjerstad from the Orioles’ perspective. I think he could ultimately be dealt for that level of value from a more aggressive big market team and it’s reasonable if the White Sox are holding out for a comparable package, but if Snell/Montgomery sign and no team is willing to put something like that on the table for Cease then the White Sox are in a bad spot. They really should trade him this offseason, he’s not likely to increase his trade value by the trade deadline going from 2 yrs remaining to 1.5 yrs. They also risk him getting injured or not rebounding from 2023 and really tanking his value. Holding Cease would be banking on him returning much closer to his 2022 form and a more aggressive team materializing at the trade deadline, and even then his trade value is going to still decline based on the 0.5 years off his team control. It was a bad call not trading him at the deadline in 2023 and they would only compound that mistake by not trading him for the best package they can get this offseason. 

Even though Cease is the clear best option available for the Orioles, the Orioles don’t have to force themselves into a trade where they give up Cowser/Kjerstad when they are both slated to be big parts of the MLB team in 2024 and especially 2025+. The White Sox have their backs more against the wall and may ultimately take a deal of Westburg or Ortiz + a package of lesser prospects from the Norby/Beavers/McDermott/Povich tiers onward etc. (with more value additional packaged with Ortiz than Westburg).

Who of Cowser/Kjerstad is slated to be on the OD roster?

13 position players 

vs RHP

1. Mullins L CF

2. Adley S C

3. Gunnar L SS

4. Santa S RF

5. Mounty R 1B

6. O’Hearn L DH

7. Hays R LF

8. Westburg R 2B

9. Urias R 3B

Mateo, McCann, Hilliard, Hicks/Mckenna/Ortiz

[deward]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I just see it as you can’t have it both ways and you most certainly can’t have it all. Nobody wants to see Kremer start a playoff game again. Everyone loves Joey Ortiz. We need an ACE. JA won’t spend money. We like our guys. We like our prospects.

So since we love Ortiz so much, then that means we can handle trading Westburg. Plus we have Mayo and Holliday, who could be both be really hard to send down after ST. Horvath and Wagner are around AA as 3B.

Then for trading one of Cowser/Kjerstad, we’d still have one of Cowser/Kjerstad post trade. Beavers is here. Stowers is here. Mayo could see some RF. Horvath, Wagner, and Norby, could move to OF. Fabian could play some COF.

We also have three first rd picks and the #8 overall bonus pool in the upcoming draft. To back fill in what we give up.

Westburg and Cowser/Kjerstad gets it done. I don’t care if people here thinks that’s too much. That probably means it’s actually enough to get a deal done. If you love Joey Ortiz so much, well let’s play him here. 

If you're writing off Kremer after one bad playoff outing, then have you looked at what happened in Cease's only playoff start?

Cease's track record of pitching like an ACE consists of one season, which we are a year removed from. Maybe he can do that again, or maybe he's just a glorified #3. Two top 50 prospects would be a serious overpay in that case.

It only matters if Elias thinks that's too much, and I suspect that he does, otherwise he probably would have already made that trade.