Starting pitcher: What would be your preference?

[NCRaven]

Corn, our prospects aren’t average.

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Oh you are way more optimistic on the probable career length.

I think the odds of a Povich hitting six years is pretty slim.

I think Frobby looked into it once.

There is this from 2007.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/07/070709131254.htm

 

Povich’s number look really close to DL Hall.  Do you think Hall will have a 6 year career?  I think it’s very likely for both.

signed,

Povich fan club charter member

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, NCRaven said:

Corn, our prospects aren’t average.

That wasn't the average career of a prospect. 

[foxfield]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Oh you are way more optimistic on the probable career length.

I think the odds of a Povich hitting six years is pretty slim.

I think Frobby looked into it once.

There is this from 2007.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/07/070709131254.htm

 

Again. This is fair. And perhaps I am guilty of being too optimistic. But many of these guys are the same names we are penciling into future lineups. Their success may or may not be more likely here. Regardless of the expected success rate you apply, it’s a steep price. And one that likely requires an equally risky expectation that Cease performs for 2 years in good health at his 2022 level. 
 

It is possible. And maybe that is what it will take. But if the price remains that high it won’t shock me if Elias passes. No matter how much I want to see us get a #3 or better starter. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

Povich’s number look really close to DL Hall.  Do you think Hall will have a 6 year career?  I think it’s very likely for both.

signed,

Povich fan club charter member

I don't think it  is very likely for either.

I'll also be very surprised if they spend six seasons with the team they make the majors with.

Could one or both bounce around for six seasons?  Sure, but then you aren't giving up six years of them.

Odds are just not in a player's favor.  They are really not in the favor of a likely bullpen piece.

[OriolesMagic83]

4 hours ago, AnythingO's said:

I don't believe Luzardo is available, I absolutely refuse HK & Westburg for Cease. Cowser & Ortiz for Cease, and not much else, was my pain point. Cease would be nice but not at that price. I believe HK is closer to Mayo level bat and will play an average RF. Westburg has shown he belongs and plays above avg at 2B & 3B. With Gunnar here and Holiday coming, Ortiz will not play SS in BAL and SS is where his max value is. Cowser is not a CF, he needs to play LF at AAA exclusively until Hay's inevitable injury. I would go for a Paxton/Ryu signing to eat the innings delta that Means won't cover relative to Gibson. We still need Bradish, GRod, and Kremer to cover what they did last year. Hyde needs to use his long men for multi innings like he did in early 2022 with Aiken to avoid the burnout of the bullpen in 1 inning-matchup roles. I would prefer a 1-year FA coupled with a MIA trade for Rogers/Perez/Meyer. They need SS (Ortiz/Mateo/Urias), power (Santa/Stowers/Norby) plus Paxton.

Who is Perez with Miami?

[Sports Guy]

32 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Who is Perez with Miami?

Eury

[AnythingO's]

31 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Who is Perez with Miami?

Eury Perez, the 6'8" rookie last year

[OriolesMagic83]

5 hours ago, AnythingO's said:

Eury Perez, the 6'8" rookie last year

That's what I thought.  His stuff is insanely good.  I'm thinking Miami would want Holliday.  If they would go for a package started by Mayo or Basallo, I would try to make a trade. 

[Frobby]

17 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Oh you are way more optimistic on the probable career length.

I think the odds of a Povich hitting six years is pretty slim.

I think Frobby looked into it once.

There is this from 2007.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/07/070709131254.htm

 

You are probably thinking of the thread linked below.   It showed that fewer than half of all players who actually make it to the majors have a career of more than five years.   

However, I suspect the average career of guys who were once ranked on a top 100 list may be longer.   There’s an awful lot of Joey Krehbiels and Tyler Nevins out there.  

Povich is not someone I’d say has an above average chance at a 5+ year career.   He has a decent chance, but no sure thing.  

 

[Since1984]

Voted free agent starting pitcher, not because I want this to happen.

Would love to see Snell hold out on a one year deal until after the season started, just to pitch for Walltimore. A good team, and well run baseball organization!

Blake could avoid the compensation pick and prove more for his $m demands. 
 

Moving the wall back at OPACY fits these type of scenarios. 

[forphase1]

If these are my options, then I go #3.  While I'd LOVE to get Mateo off of the roster, I don't want it bad enough to trade Mayo.  I'm not saying Mayo is untouchable, but it's close, and he's not touchable for Luzardo, unless it was pretty much straight up, or with just a very lesser piece.  Certainly not along with Westburg and Beavers.  I don't like the 2nd choice as Kjerstad AND Westburg is too much for Cease.  One or the other, along with some lesser prospects, sure.  But I'm not trading two of Kjerstad, Westburg, Cowser and Ortiz for Cease, IMO.  I'm not happy with the starters we have, but I'd rather stick with what we have OR, preferably, sign a decent FA starter, then to make either of those trades.

[bpilktree]

Both trades feel like opverpays imo.  I am huge fan of Mayo so don’t want to move him.  If you switch Mayo and Kjerstad in Marlins deal I would possibly do that.  Cease deal again little overpay imo.  I would do Kjerstad and Ortiz or Cowser and Westburg though.  So if those are the choices I would sign someone as free agent like Clevinger.  

[emmett16]

On 1/19/2024 at 4:00 PM, Can_of_corn said:

Oh you are way more optimistic on the probable career length.

I think the odds of a Povich hitting six years is pretty slim.

I think Frobby looked into it once.

There is this from 2007.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/07/070709131254.htm

 

That’s for every single iteration of player.  For a LHP I imagine that number is quite different.  I’d be kinda suprised if Povich doesn’t carve out a 6 year career in some capacity.  

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, emmett16 said:

That’s for every single iteration of player.  For a LHP I imagine that number is quite different.  I’d be kinda suprised if Povich doesn’t carve out a 6 year career in some capacity.  

I think your supposition that LHP on average last longer than other players is probably wrong.   Here’s a list of the 208 players who debuted in 2005.   By my count, 94 were position players, 114 were pitchers.  107 of the 208 played at least 5 seasons: 55 position players and 52 pitchers.  Of the 52 pitchers, 10 were LHP.