TT: DH and 4th outfielder, and last man on the bench situations

[Tony-OH]

Let's take a look at a few of the "battles" for roster spots going into 2024 spring training.

Let's start with the 4th outfielder who can spell Hays in LF more often. I believe Mateo is going to be the guy to spell Mullins in CF against tough lefties so I don't think this 4th/5th outfielder needs to be able to do that per se, but the two choices could anyways.

I feel Hays would be better off around 450 PAs vs the full time load he gets now. He's just a better playing when he's healthy and fresh. The issue in the past is the roster rarely had a good option to spell him against a tough righty because McKenna was also right-handed.

Defensively in left, neither Santander or Kjerstad can really spell Hays defensively in left field, but I know Colton Cowser and Sam Hilliard could. I know some were less than thrilled with Cowser's defense, especially in left field, but I think a lot of that was a lack of reps in LF in the minors and playing with upper decks. I've seen enough of Cowser to know that he will be fine defensively and probably will end up above average in LF and RF. 

Saying that, I would not be surprised if Hilliard makes the team as a 4th outfielder enabling them to rest Hays more against tough righties. Hilliard has the ability to be a good left fielder and has a plus arm similar to Hays. 

Now, Cowser also could be the right fit defensively in left field and could also be in that role, so it will be interesting to see them battle it out. However, I think they will prefer Cowser to get everyday PAs in Norfolk instead of occasional PAs so Hilliard may be better for that role. 

I don't see McKenna making this team this year. While he can spell Mullins, so can Mateo who actually will have more range than McKenna. If Hillard makes the team, he also can spell Mullins though being left-handed it might not make the best fit. If Mullins stays healthy, it's not like he needs to be spelled that often anyways though.

So what does that mean for Kjerstad and O'Hearn in that DH/RF role? Since both fill the same offensive role and similar positions, only one of them makes the team if Hillard/Cowser make the team. Personally, I think it's time for Kjerstad to be DH/RF and get his 450 PAs or more. I think Orioles got the best of O'Hearn in the the first half of last year then he settled back into who he really was as a hitter in the 2nd half when he slashed .280/.302/.454/.756.  

So going into spring training, I see the following battles for roster spots:

Hilliard vs Cowser for the backup left-handed 4th OF role (I doubt they want Cowser in this role so I think Hilliard wins)

Kjerstad vs O'Hearn (Kjerstad can DH and RF, moving Santander to back up 1B). O'Hearn can be added to a trade for a RP. I think he ends up in that role meaning O'Hearn needs to be traded. He's cheap enough and had enough success to garner something coming back.

So I see the bench:

McCann
Mateo
Hilliard

The last spot becomes interesting because it depends on whether Mayo or Holliday make the team. If they do, that moves Urias to the bench. If not, then it could open up a spot for O'Hearn to not be traded or moved and also make the team. 

It could potentially open the door for McKenna again. Nick Maton just became an option as a left-handed option to rest Urias or Westburg at 2B or 3B, but he was not very good at all last year so I guess they are hoping for a comeback from him. 

So that final spot right now will depend on a lot of things, but these are the candidates that I see:
Maton if they want a left-handed option for Westburg or Urias occasionally
McKenna if they think Mateo will be occasional backup at SS against tough lefties and want to backup Mullins in the same game.
O'Hearn if they want that good left-handed stick and backup to Mountcastle and able to give Santander more time off.

Ok, what are your thoughts?

[RVAOsFan]

I like the idea of trading O'Hearn for a bullpen piece if Elias can make that happen, with Santander and now Kjerstad we have that "role" covered.

If Holliday checks all the boxes and Elias cannot find a reason to send him down to AAA to start the season and get an extra year of control out of him then I will be happy because we should be all in this year.  However, if its determined Holliday needs a little work at 2B and he doesn't make the opening day roster I would love to see Norby get a chance.  I know he isn't the coveted LH 2B but I think if he gets a chance in Baltimore he may hit himself into a guy they can't send back down.

[ChuckS]

10 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Let's take a look at a few of the "battles" for roster spots going into 2024 spring training.

Let's start with the 4th outfielder who can spell Hays in LF more often. I believe Mateo is going to be the guy to spell Mullins in CF against tough lefties so I don't think this 4th/5th outfielder needs to be able to do that per se, but the two choices could anyways.

I feel Hays would be better off around 450 PAs vs the full time load he gets now. He's just a better playing when he's healthy and fresh. The issue in the past is the roster rarely had a good option to spell him against a tough righty because McKenna was also right-handed.

Defensively in left, neither Santander or Kjerstad can really spell Hays defensively in left field, but I know Colton Cowser and Sam Hilliard could. I know some were less than thrilled with Cowser's defense, especially in left field, but I think a lot of that was a lack of reps in LF in the minors and playing with upper decks. I've seen enough of Cowser to know that he will be fine defensively and probably will end up above average in LF and RF. 

Saying that, I would not be surprised if Hilliard makes the team as a 4th outfielder enabling them to rest Hays more against tough righties. Hilliard has the ability to be a good left fielder and has a plus arm similar to Hays. 

Now, Cowser also could be the right fit defensively in left field and could also be in that role, so it will be interesting to see them battle it out. However, I think they will prefer Cowser to get everyday PAs in Norfolk instead of occasional PAs so Hilliard may be better for that role. 

I don't see McKenna making this team this year. While he can spell Mullins, so can Mateo who actually will have more range than McKenna. If Hillard makes the team, he also can spell Mullins though being left-handed it might not make the best fit. If Mullins stays healthy, it's not like he needs to be spelled that often anyways though.

So what does that mean for Kjerstad and O'Hearn in that DH/RF role? Since both fill the same offensive role and similar positions, only one of them makes the team if Hillard/Cowser make the team. Personally, I think it's time for Kjerstad to be DH/RF and get his 450 PAs or more. I think Orioles got the best of O'Hearn in the the first half of last year then he settled back into who he really was as a hitter in the 2nd half when he slashed .280/.302/.454/.756.  

So going into spring training, I see the following battles for roster spots:

Hilliard vs Cowser for the backup left-handed 4th OF role (I doubt they want Cowser in this role so I think Hilliard wins)

Kjerstad vs O'Hearn (Kjerstad can DH and RF, moving Santander to back up 1B). O'Hearn can be added to a trade for a RP. I think he ends up in that role meaning O'Hearn needs to be traded. He's cheap enough and had enough success to garner something coming back.

So I see the bench:

McCann
Mateo
Hilliard

The last spot becomes interesting because it depends on whether Mayo or Holliday make the team. If they do, that moves Urias to the bench. If not, then it could open up a spot for O'Hearn to not be traded or moved and also make the team. 

It could potentially open the door for McKenna again. Nick Maton just became an option as a left-handed option to rest Urias or Westburg at 2B or 3B, but he was not very good at all last year so I guess they are hoping for a comeback from him. 

So that final spot right now will depend on a lot of things, but these are the candidates that I see:
Maton if they want a left-handed option for Westburg or Urias occasionally
McKenna if they think Mateo will be occasional backup at SS against tough lefties and want to backup Mullins in the same game.
O'Hearn if they want that good left-handed stick and backup to Mountcastle and able to give Santander more time off.

Ok, what are your thoughts?

I understand wanting to get a player like Cowser every day at bats in Norfolk rather than being a fourth outfielder, but I really think we need to move away from these pure defensive replacements taking up roster spots.  We should be able to rotate guys enough (like the Rays do), so that we have strong players getting regular playing time throughout our positional roster.  

For me, it's just kind of hard to justify having guys like Cowser, Norby, and soon to be others, rotting away at Triple A because of the need to keep the Hillards and McKennas of the world on the roster.  Mateo is enough for me. 

I would like to see an OD roster where Kjerstad, Cowser, and Mayo all make the team.  

[Sports Guy]

No reason Cowser can’t have a role where the thought is he gets at least 400 at bats. He doesn’t have to play everyday to be up here. 3-4 games a week to start is fine and just go from there.

I don’t see OHearn having any value in a trade but sure if you can trade him for a useful piece, by all means go ahead.

[vab]

When I see a post like Tony's here, I think back to all the years when this club would get to the end of spring training trying to scrape together enough players to fill out the roster. Now they have the luxury of picking from several proven major league players for the last couple of spots. A new day. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

If Holliday does not make the team I think Maton will. Elias spoke about the need for a lefty infielder before signing Frazier and then when talking about opportunities for Holliday a few days ago. I disagree with it, especially since Urias has had reverse splits, but what can you do. I think Holliday will make the team and it will be a moot point, and if not Maton probably won’t play much before Holliday is called up.

Either Urias or O’Hearn could/should be moved for a RP and would make things much more clear, so it’s a more interesting question of what they do if they don’t make a trade. I don’t think they’ll DFA either of them so if there’s no trade or injury, it’s going to be tough for Kjerstad to make it.

I agree Cowser or Hilliard will make it for defense over Kjerstad, and that probably comes down to whether they think Cowser will play enough & will not benefit from more AAA time vs. intrigue in Hilliard and risk of losing him on waivers. I’d much rather they go with Cowser, but not if they’re going to bury him on the bench.

If they think any of Mateo, Hays, Cowser & Hilliard are sufficient backup CF, I don’t see a reason to keep McKenna. If they’re going to DH Adley and start McCann against LHP again, which I think they will, they can start Hays & Santander in the OF against LHP and have only 1-2 lefties in the lineup (depending on whether Gunnar/Holliday are getting a breather and where Mateo plays).

 

[Jim'sKid26]

@Tony-OH, if the emphasis were primarily on defensive capability as opposed to offensive matchups, who do you think wins those respective battles?

[sportsfan8703]

I'm swayed on Hilliard over Mckenna.  Especially since I think Mckenna might clear waivers if we choose to intentionally flood the market with players out of options.  Baumann, Mckenna, Maton, and Nevin, could all be DFA'd at the end of ST in hopes that 4/4, or at least 3/4, clear to make it to AAA.  

O'Hearn is interesting.  It's time for Kjerstad or Cowser to get his ABs.  Even if we don't trade O'Hearn, we could DFA him as well and possibly get him through to AAA.  

[Matt Bennett]

I am dubious Mateo can hit LHP to warrant playing time against them. 

Splits in 2023: .746 OPS (LHP) vs. .515 OPS (RHP)

Career Splits: .667 OPS (LHP) vs. .615 OPS (RHP)

Prior to 2023, Mateo's career splits were .624 (LHP) vs. .655 (RHP)

He's just not good at hitting. And I'm dubious he's capable in the outfield after getting so little time there over the years. I remember him making a great catch off the wall but then completely misplaying a catchable ball like an inning later. If he must be on the team, I'd limit his appearances to SS only and see if this 2023 LHP/RHP split holds up. And I hope he has a short leash. 

[Matt Bennett]

6 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I'm swayed on Hilliard over Mckenna.  Especially since I think Mckenna might clear waivers if we choose to intentionally flood the market with players out of options.  Baumann, Mckenna, Maton, and Nevin, could all be DFA'd at the end of ST in hopes that 4/4, or at least 3/4, clear to make it to AAA.  

O'Hearn is interesting.  It's time for Kjerstad or Cowser to get his ABs.  Even if we don't trade O'Hearn, we could DFA him as well and possibly get him through to AAA.  

According to Fangraph's Roster Resource, O'Hearn has an option remaining.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/orioles

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No reason Cowser can’t have a role where the thought is he gets at least 400 at bats. He doesn’t have to play everyday to be up here. 3-4 games a week to start is fine and just go from there.

I don’t see OHearn having any value in a trade but sure if you can trade him for a useful piece, by all means go ahead.

Maybe O'Hearn could fetch you a Fujinami like pitcher, but I can't see him returning any proven bullpen piece of value after one good season as a platoon bat. If I'm wrong on this then I hope Elias is shopping O'Hearn right now.

I think there's a good chance Elias is going to add a veteran reliever before opening day.

[Frobby]

Just now, Matt Bennett said:

According to Fangraph's Roster Resource, O'Hearn has an option remaining.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/orioles

Yes, but since he has 5+ years of service, he can decline an assignment to the minors.  

[DirtyBird]

2 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

According to Fangraph's Roster Resource, O'Hearn has an option remaining.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/orioles

There isn't much reason for us to have him stashed in the minors. We aren't going to yo-yo Cowser and/or Kjerstad back and forth.

[CaptainRedbeard]

ZIPS is projecting Mateo to be .241/.289/.404 vs LHP and .228/.269/.362 vs RHP. That’s obviously not good even against LHP, but if he’s bringing plus to plus plus defense then that’s a palatable line against LHP. I’m skeptical he’s actually going to bring that level of defense given his inconsistency at SS last year and lack of recent experience playing CF (and some very poorly played balls in super limited time out there last year), but after the Ortiz trade I think we’re stuck with him for the time being. 

If Mateo gets any starts or even moderate leverage PAs against RHP that’s pretty inexcusable. Even if he starts against LHP they need to be pinch hitting for him against the first RHP RP he faces if the game is at all close. 

[RZNJ]

55 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Let's take a look at a few of the "battles" for roster spots going into 2024 spring training.

Let's start with the 4th outfielder who can spell Hays in LF more often. I believe Mateo is going to be the guy to spell Mullins in CF against tough lefties so I don't think this 4th/5th outfielder needs to be able to do that per se, but the two choices could anyways.

I feel Hays would be better off around 450 PAs vs the full time load he gets now. He's just a better playing when he's healthy and fresh. The issue in the past is the roster rarely had a good option to spell him against a tough righty because McKenna was also right-handed.

Defensively in left, neither Santander or Kjerstad can really spell Hays defensively in left field, but I know Colton Cowser and Sam Hilliard could. I know some were less than thrilled with Cowser's defense, especially in left field, but I think a lot of that was a lack of reps in LF in the minors and playing with upper decks. I've seen enough of Cowser to know that he will be fine defensively and probably will end up above average in LF and RF. 

Saying that, I would not be surprised if Hilliard makes the team as a 4th outfielder enabling them to rest Hays more against tough righties. Hilliard has the ability to be a good left fielder and has a plus arm similar to Hays. 

Now, Cowser also could be the right fit defensively in left field and could also be in that role, so it will be interesting to see them battle it out. However, I think they will prefer Cowser to get everyday PAs in Norfolk instead of occasional PAs so Hilliard may be better for that role. 

I don't see McKenna making this team this year. While he can spell Mullins, so can Mateo who actually will have more range than McKenna. If Hillard makes the team, he also can spell Mullins though being left-handed it might not make the best fit. If Mullins stays healthy, it's not like he needs to be spelled that often anyways though.

So what does that mean for Kjerstad and O'Hearn in that DH/RF role? Since both fill the same offensive role and similar positions, only one of them makes the team if Hillard/Cowser make the team. Personally, I think it's time for Kjerstad to be DH/RF and get his 450 PAs or more. I think Orioles got the best of O'Hearn in the the first half of last year then he settled back into who he really was as a hitter in the 2nd half when he slashed .280/.302/.454/.756.  

So going into spring training, I see the following battles for roster spots:

Hilliard vs Cowser for the backup left-handed 4th OF role (I doubt they want Cowser in this role so I think Hilliard wins)

Kjerstad vs O'Hearn (Kjerstad can DH and RF, moving Santander to back up 1B). O'Hearn can be added to a trade for a RP. I think he ends up in that role meaning O'Hearn needs to be traded. He's cheap enough and had enough success to garner something coming back.

So I see the bench:

McCann
Mateo
Hilliard

The last spot becomes interesting because it depends on whether Mayo or Holliday make the team. If they do, that moves Urias to the bench. If not, then it could open up a spot for O'Hearn to not be traded or moved and also make the team. 

It could potentially open the door for McKenna again. Nick Maton just became an option as a left-handed option to rest Urias or Westburg at 2B or 3B, but he was not very good at all last year so I guess they are hoping for a comeback from him. 

So that final spot right now will depend on a lot of things, but these are the candidates that I see:
Maton if they want a left-handed option for Westburg or Urias occasionally
McKenna if they think Mateo will be occasional backup at SS against tough lefties and want to backup Mullins in the same game.
O'Hearn if they want that good left-handed stick and backup to Mountcastle and able to give Santander more time off.

Ok, what are your thoughts?

How do you figure Mateo having more range than McKenna?    Even though he’s faster, McKenna is no slouch and Mateo would have to prove to me that he can get reads and jumps than McKenna.  Having said that I do think they hope Mateo can cover center which would make McKenna obsolete.