Pie continues to impress

[Mackus]

And what if Reimold is giving us a 5 runs above average in LF and hits with a .388 wOBA?

Then instead of giving him days off when Pie plays, have him DH, which is what I'd do anyway. And, like I've said, the relative performance of Pie and everyone involved in this rotation will yield pretty obvious solutions as to the ultimate breakdown of playing time. I've just been stating what the breakdown should be heading into the season.

Keeps his bat in the lineup and Pie's glove is still far likely to be better. I'd be thrilled to see Reimold be an above average LF, but I don't think he will be. He had a bad defensive reputation in the minors, despite his athleticism. I think with time he can become reliable out there, not the misery he was last year dealing with a relatively new position and a foot injury, but I think expecting that immediately is overly optimistic.

[Frobby]

I looked foolish? Because Pie had one really good hot streak? I am pretty confident I am going to be proven right on my assessment of Pie this year.

The idea that Pie only was good in August is wrong. From May 10 to July 31 (before his supposed hot streak) he hit .313/.362/.469.

In the big picture, his full season numbers are the best representation of the season he had. .763 OPS is not bad for a 24-year old getting off-and-on playing time. It's perfectly reasonable to expect he could top that this year.

And let me put Pie's start into perspective -- it was 64 PA in which he had a .466 OPS. That's bad, but lots of players have streaks that bad. Reimold had a streak from June 20 - July 12 where he hit .206/.260/.265 in 73 PA. He had a streak from August 1-16 where he hit .191/.296/.255 in 54 PA. So why judge Pie based on his cold streaks while minimizing the importance of his hot streaks?

[DrungoHazewood]

The O's bench has been so terrible for so long that I think we believe managers are not bright enough to use a good bench. If Pie starts against a righty and Reimold is DHing, then a lefthandeed pitcher is brought in to pitch. I think Trembley is smart enough to to bring in Scott to PH and then to play leftfield. Scott is for an 840 OPS last year against lefties in 144 at bats.

Give Trembley the players an we might find that platooning in back in style.

Up until 2009 Scott was largely seen as a platoon player, unable to hit lefties. His 144 at bats last year didn't change that much. He's still a guy who's very likely a standard issue major league player - 75 or 100 point advantage against righties. Not the kind of guy you'd platoon with Pie if you had a choice. I'd probably use Wigginton to pinch hit for Pie or Scott against many lefties.

I think Trembley is smart enough to know that there are situations where you'd want to lose Pie's much better glove for a 100 point OPS advantage, and many where you wouldn't. And he's also smart enough to know that platooning is of limited utility when your bench includes a glove-first utility infielder, a backup catcher, and a backup corner infielder who bats the same direction as the starting corner infielders.

[DrungoHazewood]

The idea that Pie only was good in August is wrong. From May 10 to July 31 (before his supposed hot streak) he hit .313/.362/.469.

In the big picture, his full season numbers are the best representation of the season he had. .763 OPS is not bad for a 24-year old getting off-and-on playing time. It's perfectly reasonable to expect he could top that this year.

And let me put Pie's start into perspective -- it was 64 PA in which he had a .466 OPS. That's bad, but lots of players have streaks that bad. Reimold had a streak from June 20 - July 12 where he hit .206/.260/.265 in 73 PA. He had a streak from August 1-16 where he hit .191/.296/.255 in 54 PA. So why judge Pie based on his cold streaks while minimizing the importance of his hot streaks?

Because unless your cold streak is in April it's hidden from view. A fluke of record keeping leaves us with a huge bias against players who haven't started well, and just as huge a bias for players who make a good first impression.

[TyCobb]

The idea that Pie only was good in August is wrong. From May 10 to July 31 (before his supposed hot streak) he hit .313/.362/.469.

In the big picture, his full season numbers are the best representation of the season he had. .763 OPS is not bad for a 24-year old getting off-and-on playing time. It's perfectly reasonable to expect he could top that this year.

And let me put Pie's start into perspective -- it was 64 PA in which he had a .466 OPS. That's bad, but lots of players have streaks that bad. Reimold had a streak from June 20 - July 12 where he hit .206/.260/.265 in 73 PA. He had a streak from August 1-16 where he hit .191/.296/.255 in 54 PA. So why judge Pie based on his cold streaks while minimizing the importance of his hot streaks?

Every players have hot /cold streaks. I just don't think we will see enough hot streaks to warrant Pie cold streaks.

It is impossible to know when a players cold or hot streaks ends. So you have to play who you think is the best player most of the time. You can't simply bench Luke Scott during his cold streaks and play him during his hot streaks. Only after hindsight can you actually decide when a cold/hot streak begins/ends.

I think Reimold is going to give us a 5+ UZR/150. I think Pie would give us around 10 UZR/150. So my difference between Pie/Reimold fielding is around .5 wins.

Bill James gives Pie a .333 wOBA next year. He gives Luke Scott .357 wOBA. The difference from Pie and Luke Scott is around 10 runs over 500 ABs.

So by my calculations Luke Scott's bat is .5 wins better than Pie's glove on our team. I am not even adding the fact that Reimold wOBA should drop if he was a DH vs LF.

[DrungoHazewood]

And what if Reimold is giving us a 5 runs above average in LF and hits with a .388 wOBA?

If he's surpassing his 90% projections he's a great player, sure. No argument there. That's an All Star caliber player.

But let's not kid ourselves and say that's his most likely outcome. His CHONE is for a .362 with a -2. If that's where he ends up you can probably find some playing time for Pie if he hits his projections (.336, +6.5).

[TyCobb]

If he's surpassing his 90% projections he's a great player, sure. No argument there. That's an All Star caliber player.

But let's not kid ourselves and say that's his most likely outcome. His CHONE is for a .362 with a -2. If that's where he ends up you can probably find some playing time for Pie if he hits his projections (.336, +6.5).

I completely agree with you.

I am just going on my own projections from Reimold playing LF for the first time last year with an achilles injury and used Bill James wOBA prediction.

I am very bullish on Reimold.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think Reimold is going to give us a 5+ UZR/150. I think Pie would give us around 10 UZR/150. So my difference between Pie/Reimold fielding is around .5 wins.

Bill James gives Pie a .333 wOBA next year. He gives Luke Scott .357 wOBA. The difference from Pie and Luke Scott is around 10 runs over 500 ABs.

So by my calculations Luke Scott's bat is .5 wins better than Pie's glove on our team. I am not even adding the fact that Reimold wOBA should drop if he was a DH vs LF.

Just to be clear, your opinion is based on data, along with a defensive rating for Reimold that's 7-10 runs better per season than the forecasts project.

So your conclusions regarding Pie and Reimold essentially flip on their heads if you use CHONE's fielding numbers instead of your optimistic ones.

[DrungoHazewood]

I completely agree with you.

I am just going on my own projections from Reimold playing LF for the first time last year with an achilles injury and used Bill James wOBA prediction.

I am very bullish on Reimold.

It'll be great if your optimisim on Reimold turns out to be reality. But I remain skeptical about his defense.

[wildcard]

Up until 2009 Scott was largely seen as a platoon player, unable to hit lefties. His 144 at bats last year didn't change that much. He's still a guy who's very likely a standard issue major league player - 75 or 100 point advantage against righties. Not the kind of guy you'd platoon with Pie if you had a choice. I'd probably use Wigginton to pinch hit for Pie or Scott against many lefties.

I think Trembley is smart enough to know that there are situations where you'd want to lose Pie's much better glove for a 100 point OPS advantage, and many where you wouldn't. And he's also smart enough to know that platooning is of limited utility when your bench includes a glove-first utility infielder, a backup catcher, and a backup corner infielder who bats the same direction as the starting corner infielders.

I guess it is whether we are talking about the hot Scott or the cold Scott. Scott hit 3 homers and a for a 850 OPS in 2007 vs lefties in 59 at bats. He hit for a higher OPS against lefties then righties last year (837 vs 823)with 10 homers in 146 at bats vs lefties. I know Scott wasn't given much of the chance to hit lefties early in his MLB career but I think at this point he at least deserve the chance to play against them.

Heck, Scott hit much better then Wiggy did against lefties last year (837 vs 650). I know Wiggy hit better against lefties prior to 2009 but I guess it come down to who is hot.

Reimold probably starts in left as lefties. But if Pie starts in left against a righty and has to be pinch hit for in the 7th inning, then I think Scott could get the call because he could PH and then go into the field.

Naturally if Pie is in left and the O's are ahead when a lefty comes on then Pie probably stays in for defensive reasons.

[Sports Guy]

The idea that Pie only was good in August is wrong. From May 10 to July 31 (before his supposed hot streak) he hit .313/.362/.469.

In the big picture, his full season numbers are the best representation of the season he had. .763 OPS is not bad for a 24-year old getting off-and-on playing time. It's perfectly reasonable to expect he could top that this year.

And let me put Pie's start into perspective -- it was 64 PA in which he had a .466 OPS. That's bad, but lots of players have streaks that bad. Reimold had a streak from June 20 - July 12 where he hit .206/.260/.265 in 73 PA. He had a streak from August 1-16 where he hit .191/.296/.255 in 54 PA. So why judge Pie based on his cold streaks while minimizing the importance of his hot streaks?

Because when you have a bias, its easier to focus on the negative?

[Hank Scorpio]

Because when you have a bias, its easier to focus on the negative?

...or the positive if you're arguing pro.

My opinion on this is that it's a welcome problem to have. MLB's (not just Trembley's) hardened methods of assuring players of their status is largely an unappealing thing to fans. And it's probably overly accomodating to come out and flatly state, "Nolan Reimold is our left fielder. Felix Pie is our 4th outfielder."

But it is the perception of the powers that be that those assurances and that comfort will optimize the player's ability to keep their mind on their game. I don't entirely agree with it, but I can see how the reality of the situation is an extremely fine line to walk, and how the opposite could potentially ostracize the manager.

Again, it's a good problem to have.

[Sports Guy]

...or the positive if you're arguing pro.

My opinion on this is that it's a welcome problem to have. MLB's (not just Trembley's) hardened methods of assuring players of their status is largely an unappealing thing to fans. And it's probably overly accomodating to come out and flatly state, "Nolan Reimold is our left fielder. Felix Pie is our 4th outfielder."

But it is the perception of the powers that be that those assurances and that comfort will optimize the player's ability to keep their mind on their game. I don't entirely agree with it, but I can see how the reality of the situation is an extremely fine line to walk, and how the opposite could potentially ostracize the manager.

Again, it's a good problem to have.

Its only a good problem to have if these guys are used properly.

[Hank Scorpio]

Its only a good problem to have if these guys are used properly.

You're a tough cookie.

[Frobby]

Its only a good problem to have if these guys are used properly.

What's your definition of properly? I already gave mine: Pie gets at least 2 starts a week, and more than that if he is playing well. Remember, he'll get in some games as a PH or late inning replacement as well.