Hardy extended

[SrMeowMeow]

Well, if you could just stop always being wrong..

[Stotle]

Well, if you could just stop always being wrong..

Story of my life....

[Frobby]

Not too cool for WAR, but Baseball-reference disagrees, I believe. Insomuch as there is not concensus on the calculations showing even par value, I don't think we can assume that an older Hardy is a safe bet to provide surplus value.

The WAR calculations for FG and BB-Ref are different in a couple of respects. First, BB-ref uses a higher base of how many games a "replacement level team" would win, and so in general WAR is going to be lower on BB-ref than on FG. Second, they use a different method for measuring defense. However, in light of the first difference, a 1.0 WAR player on BB-ref is worth more than a 1.0 WAR player on FG. So, having a lower WAR on BB-ref does not necessarily make you less valuable under their system.

[Stotle]

The WAR calculations for FG and BB-Ref are different in a couple of respects. First, BB-ref uses a higher base of how many games a "replacement level team" would win, and so in general WAR is going to be lower on BB-ref than on FG. Second, they use a different method for measuring defense. However, in light of the first difference, a 1.0 WAR player on BB-ref is worth more than a 1.0 WAR player on FG. So, having a lower WAR on BB-ref does not necessarily make you less valuable under their system.

The calculations I last saw estimated approx $5 M per win at B-ref and $4.5 M per win at FG. Not sure if those are still accurate.

[JTrea81]

The calculations I last saw estimated approx $5 M per win at B-ref and $4.5 M per win at FG. Not sure if those are still accurate.

It's more like $4.0 million per fWAR.

[Frobby]

The calculations I last saw estimated approx $5 M per win at B-ref and $4.5 M per win at FG. Not sure if those are still accurate.

It's more like $4.0 million per fWAR.

No, Stotle is correct, at least based on this year's numbers. They have Bautista worth 6.9 fWAR which they translated as $31.2 mm ($4.5 mm per fWAR), Nick $1.8 fWAR translated to $8.0 mm ($4.44 mm per fWAR).

[Aglets]

Can someone explain to me how JJ Hardy has a negative defensive WAR on BB-ref?

He has a fielding % of .994 (best out of ALL the qualified SS in the AL). and the fewest errors of any AL ss with at least 241 total chances. (hardy has 323 so far).

Moreover his range factor is over 5 (only one other AL ss has one that high) which if nothing else tells you that even if his range isn't amazing it's certainly not a liability.......

so what are we missing?

[GoldGlove21]

Can someone explain to me how JJ Hardy has a negative defensive WAR on BB-ref?

He has a fielding % of .994 (best out of ALL the qualified SS in the AL). and the fewest errors of any AL ss with at least 241 total chances. (hardy has 323 so far).

Moreover his range factor is over 5 (only one other AL ss has one that high) which if nothing else tells you that even if his range isn't amazing it's certainly not a liability.......

so what are we missing?

This is why many people use the eyeball test to see if a player is good defensively. Many top clubs feel that the defensive metrics are still being worked out and that it is more difficult statistically to see if a guy is a good fielder or a bad fielder based on stats alone. Watching Adam Jones play tells me that he is a terrific fielder, he passes the eye test, but the stats shows that he sucks.

Rey Ordonez was a guy I watched and thought was the best fielder I have ever seen at a middle infield position. I had him up there with Alomar and Omar Vizquel. In 1999, Ordonez had a 3.3 WAR even though his OPS was .636! Almost all of his value was in his glove.

[RVAbird]

This is why many people use the eyeball test to see if a player is good defensively. Many top clubs feel that the defensive metrics are still being worked out and that it is more difficult statistically to see if a guy is a good fielder or a bad fielder based on stats alone. Watching Adam Jones play tells me that he is a terrific fielder, he passes the eye test, but the stats shows that he sucks.

Rey Ordonez was a guy I watched and thought was the best fielder I have ever seen at a middle infield position. I had him up there with Alomar and Omar Vizquel. In 1999, Ordonez had a 3.3 WAR even though his OPS was .636! Almost all of his value was in his glove.

Interesting that your eye strongly disagrees with my eye on Jones. Whose eye are we supposed to use in the eye test?

Also, you realize Rey Ordonez' WAR was so high because UZR quantified him as an exceptional fielder, right? When UZR or UZR-backed stats support your eye, is it appropriate to cite them then?

[RVAbird]

Can someone explain to me how JJ Hardy has a negative defensive WAR on BB-ref?

He has a fielding % of .994 (best out of ALL the qualified SS in the AL). and the fewest errors of any AL ss with at least 241 total chances. (hardy has 323 so far).

Moreover his range factor is over 5 (only one other AL ss has one that high) which if nothing else tells you that even if his range isn't amazing it's certainly not a liability.......

so what are we missing?

Defensive production and defensive quantitative measurement are volatile from one year to the next. You see weird outlying blips all the time over the course of a season or less. It's best to take three year (or career) averages to figure out how good a defender one is. As a mosaic, UZR thinks Hardy is a very good defender, and that's good enough for me. Chances are his UZR will be back in the positive going forward.

[Say O!]

Can someone explain to me how JJ Hardy has a negative defensive WAR on BB-ref?

He has a fielding % of .994 (best out of ALL the qualified SS in the AL). and the fewest errors of any AL ss with at least 241 total chances. (hardy has 323 so far).

Moreover his range factor is over 5 (only one other AL ss has one that high) which if nothing else tells you that even if his range isn't amazing it's certainly not a liability.......

so what are we missing?

Yeah, it's a little puzzling to see JJ with a super high range factor, yet slightly negative d-WAR value as based on Total Zone.

My guess is that while JJ fields a high number of balls per game (range factor) there are relatively more hits through his zone per game as judged by batted ball data.

[Enjoy Terror]

Beane and DePodesta did one thing: exploit an undervalued commodity through advanced sabermetrics. It wasn't about scouting the best baseball bodies with the five tools and sweet swings. It was about crunching numbers and realizing that you can pay guys who take walks a sack of marbles compared to the going contract rate. Great; it worked fine until every scouting department in the nation hired a round faced stat major to crunch the same numbers and close the exploit gap.

Beane hasn't done anything since really, although you can tell he's put a lot of effort into having the best defense and pitching in the league at the expense of hitting.

I think Beane's 15:00 of being the guy who struck oil with sabermetrics is sadly over, and I wouldnt consider him a GM that's doing a great job without the help of his OBP exploit.

[Frobby]

Interesting that your eye strongly disagrees with my eye on Jones. Whose eye are we supposed to use in the eye test?.....When UZR or UZR-backed stats support your eye, is it appropriate to cite them then?

Great comment and question. I think we all have to admit that our eyes are far from perfect and that our biases affect what we see, too. However, I'm not totally sold on the metrics like UZR, either. The fact that the Oriole outfielders consistently have better UZR numbers on the road than at home tells me something is clearly wrong there.

As to Hardy, he is very fundamentally sound and makes all the plays he "should" make. As to his range, in my opinion it's average based on the "eye test." I don't see a lot of plays where I say to myself, "wow, how did he reach that ball," and I don't see a lot of plays where I say, "he really should have gotten to that ball." Range factor is not that useful a stat because it is dependent on how many balls are hit in your direction.

[RVAbird]

Great comment and question. I think we all have to admit that our eyes are far from perfect and that our biases affect what we see, too. However, I'm not totally sold on the metrics like UZR, either. The fact that the Oriole outfielders consistently have better UZR numbers on the road than at home tells me something is clearly wrong there.

As to Hardy, he is very fundamentally sound and makes all the plays he "should" make. As to his range, in my opinion it's average based on the "eye test." I don't see a lot of plays where I say to myself, "wow, how did he reach that ball," and I don't see a lot of plays where I say, "he really should have gotten to that ball." Range factor is not that useful a stat because it is dependent on how many balls are hit in your direction.

I basically agree with all of this. I think Hardy is very sure-handed and makes plays on the balls he gets to. He's not fast, but he's got pretty good first-twitch instincts, and he generally positions himself well. I think, all-in-all, he's an above average defender at short. BTW, I don't think UZR numbers are particularly reliable over a season or less, but over the course of a career, I trust UZR to give me a good composite sketch of a guy's defensive abilities.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Can someone explain to me how JJ Hardy has a negative defensive WAR on BB-ref?

He has a fielding % of .994 (best out of ALL the qualified SS in the AL). and the fewest errors of any AL ss with at least 241 total chances. (hardy has 323 so far).

Moreover his range factor is over 5 (only one other AL ss has one that high) which if nothing else tells you that even if his range isn't amazing it's certainly not a liability.......

so what are we missing?

Probably a multitude of things. Many referenced: UZR instability/small sample size, the possibility that an almost 29 year old Hardy may be starting to decline (not uncommon for a MI), pre or post residual effects of his injury including conditioning issues, the pool of talent that he's competing with performing better.

His UZR range has always been good in the past so probably not much to worry about.