Reds pushing for Bedard hard?

[davearm]

Well his value goes down considerably in CF, as well as the fact that we would get Jones in a Sea deal.

Patterson's value doesn't go down if he's in CF. Good, young ML-caliber CFs are just as hard to find as 2Bs.

You're correct about Jones however, if things break in the M's favor here.

[Lucky Jim]

Lucky Jim, we'll "find someone" to play three key positions on the team, but nobody good. You don't just "find someone" to play short, second and center very well, very often. These trades are the opportunity to build this team for the future, and those positions are key. The Orioles farm system has NOTHING at any of these three positions.

Hell, you aren't even getting any really premium talent with the two trades mentioned here at the other positions for that matter. You're getting a few ok guys who might be better than average and a bunch of filler and may-bees like we got for Tejada.

I'm hoping that these are just rumors.These trades are plain stupid!!

This just isn't true. Not of Cueto. And not of Votto. This sounds like the comment of someone who doesn't know the prospects he's talking about.

Further, Stubbs is a CFer - and a good one, defenively. He's toolsy, but flawed.

There hasn't been a quality shortstop mentioned in ANY of the trades, so that's irrelevant.

Finally, Votto is the #34 prospect on the most recent Minor League prospect rankings. Cueto is at #47 (but under-appreciated, I think.) His 170/34 K:BB ratio speaks for itself. And he's got three plus pitches, all of which he commands.

If 1B is so much easier to replace than other positions, why have we been without a quality one since Palmeiro v.1.0?

[TyCobb]

Why not let Markakis play CF with Murton and Scott play the corners. I think it is a myth to think that Markakis won't hit as well if he is in CF vs RF.

[IamSpartacus]

Lucky Jim, we'll "find someone" to play three key positions on the team, but nobody good. You don't just "find someone" to play short, second and center very well, very often. These trades are the opportunity to build this team for the future, and those positions are key. The Orioles farm system has NOTHING at any of these three positions.

Hell, you aren't even getting any really premium talent with the two trades mentioned here at the other positions for that matter. You're getting a few ok guys who might be better than average and a bunch of filler and may-bees like we got for Tejada.

I'm hoping that these are just rumors.These trades are plain stupid!!

Aren't we taking it for granted that the team will not be good in 2008?

We can get a 1 - 2 year fill-in that can do an adequate job while the "youth" develops or we wait for the people we would want to become available.

One thing I think we will not see from this FO is a ridiculous deal for the CF or 2B version of Baez or getting a guy who has no interest in playing here because he has a good fantasy baseball profile.

Everyone thought the Nationals were going to make the '61 Mets look good and they did rather well for the talent they had. A good manager, committed players and a supportive FO can make a world of difference.

Not the way I would want to go, but if he gets us to paydirt in a reasonable amount of time, I could be a big AM fan!

[mikezpen]

How ML ready is Patterson? The numbers hitting aren't that great, and he made 12 errors out there.

[Mackus]

I agree that I'd rather have Hamilton or Encarnacion (in that order) than everybody past Cueto and Votto in that deal. I would love the deal if either of those guys are substituted in. Unless Seattle includes Jones and 2 of Clement, Morrow, or Balentien, they can't top that deal. I think I'd prefer Jones, 1 of that group, and someone like Sherrill than the rumored Reds offer.

[TyCobb]

This just isn't true. Not of Cueto. And not of Votto. This sounds like the comment of someone who doesn't know the prospects he's talking about.

Further, Stubbs is a CFer - and a good one, defenively. He's toolsy, but flawed.

There hasn't been a quality shortstop mentioned in ANY of the trades, so that's irrelevant.

Finally, Votto is the #34 prospect on the most recent Minor League prospect rankings. Cueto is at #47 (but under-appreciated, I think.) His 170/34 K:BB ratio speaks for itself. And he's got three plus pitches, all of which he commands.

If 1B is so much easier to replace than other positions, why have we been without a quality one since Palmeiro v.1.0?

Last season was a fluke where we weren't at the bottom of production for 1st base. I believe Votto and Cueto could be all-stars in this league. I feel a lot of people are under appreciated their value.

[mikezpen]

We can get a 1 - 2 year fill-in that can do an adequate job while the "youth" develops or we wait for the people we would want to become available.

The problem is this: we have no "youth" at those positions anywhere remotely close in the minors.There is nothing to develop! Where is the Orioles' top-rated SS prospect folks? WHERE? Center? WHERE? Second base even? again-WHERE?

Secondly, you don't trade Erik Bedard for 1 and 2-year filler.You trade him for premium talent-maybe 2 players but premium players-not homers and vottos.

[Mackus]

I don't know if Votto will be an AS, I certainly don't think he will be a regular AS, but he may be able to get in a few times during really good years. I do think he will be a very similar player to Sean Casey. Not the Sean Casey of the last few years, but the Sean Casey of early in his career, where he had great OBP and 20-25 HR. I think Votto might be able to have a bit more power.

And to answer a question from earlier in the thread, if you get Votto, you still definitely go hard after Tex. If you sign him, you move Votto to DH or trade him or move Tex to LF. It'd be one of those "good problems". Passing on Votto because you are hoping to sign Tex is unwise.

[Lucky Jim]

The problem is this: we have no "youth" at those positions anywhere remotely close in the minors.There is nothing to develop! Where is a top-rated SS prospect folks? WHERE? Center? WHERE? Second base even? again-WHERE?

Secondly, you don't trade Erik Bedard for 1 and 2-year filler.You trade him for premium talent-maybe 2 players but premium players-not homers and vottos.

Cueto and Votto ARE premium players. Where are you getting your evaluations from? They're ranked #2 and #3 in the Reds system by John Sickels. The only reason they're not #1 prospects is because the Reds' system is filthy-deep. Your comments reveal that you really don't know what you're talking about when it comes to prospects.

I'm not saying we trade Bedard for stop-gaps. In fact, no one is. We're saying that trading Bedard with positions in mind (other than as a factor in valuation) is silly - we're going to stink next year and so we might as well try to maximize our value now.

And I'll reiterate: name one (just one!) premium SS prospect that's been talked about seriously in any trade discussion.

SG - you're right that Stubbs poses are risk. But at least it's a high-reward risk:

Drew Stubbs, OF, Cincinnati Reds

Bats: R Throws: R HT: 6-5 WT: 190 DOB: October 4, 1984

(stats are in the book)

A star at the University of Texas, Stubbs was drafted in the first round in '06, seventh overall. He has excellent tools: speed, power, overall athleticism. Right now his best skills are defensive: he is a tremendous defensive outfielder. But his bat is surprisingly unrefined for a college player. He works the count, but his swing gets long, and he strikes out so much that some scouts doubt he'll be an adequate hitter at higher levels. He posted a +13 percent OPS in the Midwest League, and his SEC of +37 percent shows a potentially broad base of skills. Stubbs has the physical ability to be a Seven Skill player, but he needs to show he can make contact against better pitching, and he needs to improve his basestealing efficiency. He could be really good, he could be merely mediocre, or he could flame out when he reaches Double-A, a definite high-risk/high-reward prospect. Grade B-.

[TGO]

How ML ready is Patterson? The numbers hitting aren't that great, and he made 12 errors out there.

I would say offensively he is ready for a shot at the bigs. He has almost 600 AAA ABs with an OPS of .820+, which is great from 2B or CF. The question with him is really defense. Whether he is at 2B or CF he may not be ready on the defensive side of the equation.

[YardBirds13]

I think that I would be OK with not getting Pie in a BRob-Cubs deal as long as we get Jones from Seattle in a Bedard deal. I think this could actually work out pretty well for us:

Bedard to Seattle for Jones, Clement, and one of the pitchers (Morrow or Tillman, either one works for me)

Roberts to Chicago for Murton, Gallagher, and Patterson.

Mora to Philly for anything they'll give us.

I'd also really try hard to get rid of Hernandez so Clement could be the OD catcher. I'd deal him anywhere for not much.

C- Clement

1B- Huff

2B- Patterson (Give him a shot to improve his D)

SS- ?

3B- Moore

LF- Murton

CF- Jones

RF- Markakis

DH- Scott

Bench- Quiroz, Millar, Payton, Bynum.

Obviously I'd look to get rid of Millar and Payton if we could, but if we keep them I don't want them taking at bats from Murton or Scott.

The hole is obviously at shortstop, and I'd look to deal a young arm (or a veteran reliever, if that's what the team needs) to try and get a guy like Hu, Lillibridge or one of the usualy suspects we talk about on here. Plug them in at short and you have your lineup.

Rotation would basically be a giant crap shoot. Involving everyone including Guthrie, Loewen, Cabrera, Olson, Penn, Liz, Burres, Patton, Morrow/Tillman, Gallagher and so on.

My guess is the rotation would be something like: Guthrie, Loewen, Cabrera, Olson, and Morrow (if he is the guy). I think Penn, Gallagher and Patton start in AAA, and Burres and Liz start in the bullpen with Walker, Bradford, Hoey, Albers and Sarfate and any arm we get in a Mora, Millar, or Payton trade.

[erb8472]

You are spot on Mackus. We don't have the liability of waiting on Tex if a guy like Votto is available. Votto could also be moved to Leftfield if necessary.

[JTrea81]

I don't know if Votto will be an AS, I certainly don't think he will be a regular AS, but he may be able to get in a few times during really good years. I do think he will be a very similar player to Sean Casey. Not the Sean Casey of the last few years, but the Sean Casey of early in his career, where he had great OBP and 20-25 HR. I think Votto might be able to have a bit more power.

And to answer a question from earlier in the thread, if you get Votto, you still definitely go hard after Tex. If you sign him, you move Votto to DH or trade him or move Tex to LF. It'd be one of those "good problems". Passing on Votto because you are hoping to sign Tex is unwise.

You don't move Tex, Votto would go to DH because he isn't regarded as a good fielder. My guess is he'd be compared to Brad Fullmer.

[OrioleWay27]

The Cubs deal being mentioned is a bad one for the O's. You have to get top-tier prospects for an All Star second baseman, and none of the three players come close. I wouldn't trade Roberts without getting back Rich Hill or Felix Pie, and I'm not even high on Pie.

The Reds deal is also lackluster for one of the best lefties in all of baseball. The M's package is far more favorable, and of course I'll always regret not being able to get something done with the Dodgers.

If I were AM, I would stand pat with both Roberts and Bedard and trade them at the July deadline, where we'll be able to fleece a desperate big market team that wants to make the playoffs. That could even be the Dodgers. But to settle for these deals would be cheating the fan base in the short-term AND the long-term.

To deal Roberts and Bedard, we need surefire top-shelf talent - players that fit the label would be guys like Adam Jones, Jeff Clement, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Pie, Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw, etc. - at least three stud prospects, so that perhaps one or two pan out. Not six or seven second-grade prospects, so that none of them pan out to be stars and a couple turn out to be Kevin Millar-type journeymen.