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More Smoak and Mirrors on Free Agency


smootharch

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No where in my post did I say that scouts hit on more players than they miss. That is obvious. Once again, you're conflating two different concepts. I said scouts are very good at identifying players with tools that will play at the major league level, whether those tools are excellent hand eye coordination, brute power, speed, etc. Simply because a player has a tool does not mean the player can utilize that tool effectively enough to be a major league baseball player, just like me having a bandsaw in my hand but does not make me a carpenter.

I'm not trying to be insulting, but this really isn't very complicated or sophisticated stuff.

I am not talking about missing. I am talking about a college hitter whom ESPN's draft preview stated had a "slider speed bat" putting up a 537 OPS as a CI in the Sal league. That is a good bit past just missing. It certainly appears that the O's scouts thought Espositio had "tools that will play at the major league level". His performance last season suggests they were wrong.

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I don't disagree with any of this. It isn't a refutation of anything I've said.

My point was, scouts usually expect a high pick like Smoak to have a pretty high chance of being an impact player. College player's ike Smoak are usually expected to have a fast track to the majors. Like I said, i'm sure scout's did't think Smoak would be puttng up a sub .700 OPS at 26, after 1200+ major league AB's. You could say scout's missed on Smoak. That's all i'm really getting at.

I used Weiters as an example. He was supposed to be a stud bat with a great arm, and ok behind the plate. Going by scout's, he was called a bust. How disappointed would O's fan's be with Wieters, if his defense didn't make him an AS catcher?

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Britton for Smoak is a fair trade. It's damaged goods for a disappointing development. Matusz has stuff that works out of the bullpen, at least. I'm not sure if Zach's shoulder issues will ever be back to normal. At least with Matusz, he can get guys out in short appearances. I'd love to see Smoak's potential with a fresh start. Worst come to worst, it doesn't pan out and you non-tender him. The loss of a Zach Britton is not going to cripple this club.

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That's a good point. In your opinion then, has the minor league development been more of the problem with the O's then their scouting?

Imo it's been both. The scouting has been the better half but our minors were where prospects went to die. Somehow we messed up some pretty promising players.

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