Buck tells 1057TheFan. Orioles are currently working on deals for Cruz & Markakis.

[Can_of_corn]

Thinking of the lineup next year without Cruz in it worries me, though obviously I'm not as high on a Davis return to glory like a lot of people here are. I don't see us with a true cleanup hitter without him, and I'd much rather spend our money on having that guy in the middle of our lineup for the next 3 years.

But odds are very good you won't get the 2014 version of Cruz for the next three years.

[berettafan]

Yeah, Wieters is definitely back next year. Plus we wouldn't save that much money anyways because they would have to replace him with someone else, Hundley presumably. So you'd only really save $5-6 million and likely lose a decent amount of production. Doesn't make any sense at all.

I personally would rather roll the dice on Davis, a 29 year old who can play the field, at 1/10 million than give a 35 year old DH 2/30+. That just strikes me as stupid.

and if Davis has a great comeback year where does that leave us for the NEXT season? What are our long term HR hitter prospects looking like? I'm worried about exposure if we do a 1/10 with Davis rather than a 3/xx

[El Gordo]

I meant it as that we aren't going to have the 130-135 million to keep around both Cruz and Markakis, so we need to look to shed salary somewhere if we want to keep them around.

So we are at 85 M now. Add 15 M for Cruz and 10 M for Markakis, how does that come to 135 M?

[DrungoHazewood]

Thinking of the lineup next year without Cruz in it worries me, though obviously I'm not as high on a Davis return to glory like a lot of people here are. I don't see us with a true cleanup hitter without him, and I'd much rather spend our money on having that guy in the middle of our lineup for the next 3 years.

In the 143 years of MLB history there have been 33 players who were:

- Aged 34-36

- Played LF/RF/DH/1B

- Were < 0 defensive runs per bb-ref (i.e. below-average defensively)

- Were worth 3+ wins per season over that timeframe

Only about 110 defensively-challenged corner players were worth 1 win per year from 34-36. In 143 years.

And remember, Cruz was born right on the July 1st cutoff date, so he's right between baseball age 34 and 35 for next year. Only 20 players like him were worth 3+ wins from 35-37.

Here's a partial list of players who wouldn't have been worth $18M a year from 35-37 (total rWAR at those ages in parentheses):

Mickey Mantle (6.5)

Harmon Killebrew (6.3)

Ernie Banks (6.2)

The ageless Harold Baines (5.6)

Lou Gehrig (4.1)

Eddie Murray (4.0)

Tim Raines (4.0)

If you limit your search to defensively-challenged 1B/LF/RF/DH HOFers, guys actually in Cooperstown, their median value from 34-36 is about 7 wins, and about 5.5 wins from 35-37. Your average HOFer out of the Nelson Cruz mold isn't worth 3 wins a year at his age. If you'd signed Eddie Murray to a 3-year deal after his age 34 season where he hit .330 you would have gotten three seasons worth 1.2, 1.6, and 1.1 wins.

[MarylandAaron]

I'd rather overpay for Cruz than gamble on Davis. Due to all the shifts plus the league figuring out his weaknesses, I don't see Chris ever returning to the player he once was.

[AlbionHero]

So we are at 85 M now. Add 15 M for Cruz and 10 M for Markakis, how does that come to 135 M?

We're at 105 according to that article posted earlier, assuming we pick up options they already said we would. So giving Markakis 12 and Cruz 18 could bring it up to 135.

[MarylandAaron]

Odds are also pretty good he'll be better than most of our other hitters for the next 3 years, even with a return to normalcy.

Yeah, good point. I'm not expecting him to be at his 2014 level for the next three years, but I'd certainly expect him to be one of the top three hitters in the organization over that course of time (Jones, Machado, Cruz).

[AlbionHero]

He's pretty much a guarantee for at least a .825 OPS each year. Cruz is a pretty safe investment, I'd say.

[weams]

He's pretty much a guarantee for at least a .825 OPS each year. Cruz is a pretty safe investment, I'd say.

I love your optimism. But how is he safe?

[DrungoHazewood]

He's pretty much a guarantee for at least a .825 OPS each year. Cruz is a pretty safe investment, I'd say.

The same Nelson Cruz who didn't do that in either 2011 or 2012? Who will be turning 35 in July? Who OPS'd about .660 from June through August of '14? No one is a safe investment past their 35th birthday.

[clapdiddy]

I still say we offer the QO and see if he accepts. If he does, fine. If not...that's fine as well. Having him on a year to year basis wouldn't be a bad thing. Now, saying that, I doubt he would "settle" for the QO.

[Can_of_corn]

I still say we offer the QO and see if he accepts. If he does, fine. If not...that's fine as well. Having him on a year to year basis wouldn't be a bad thing. Now, saying that, I doubt he would "settle" for the QO.

I am 100% for handing him a QO instead of just a firm handshake at the door.

[DrungoHazewood]

I still say we offer the QO and see if he accepts. If he does, fine. If not...that's fine as well. Having him on a year to year basis wouldn't be a bad thing. Now, saying that, I doubt he would "settle" for the QO.

Perfectly fine bringing him back on a one-year deal at $15M. That's what David Ortiz gets almost every year.

[El Gordo]

We're at 105 according to that article posted earlier, assuming we pick up options they already said we would. So giving Markakis 12 and Cruz 18 could bring it up to 135.

Check out baseball reference. I think they are more accurate than another OH poster's estimates.

[TXOriole]

I remember reading all these same arguments against signing Cruz a year ago.