Mancini Extension?

[Il BuonO]

From Meoli at the Sun.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bs-sp-orioles-mancini-prearb-contracts-20180330-story.html

 

[Frobby]

I’m not sure Mancini’s the guy I’d target for a deal like this.    Optimistically, he’s probably a 2-WAR player during his remaining years of control (at ages 26-30), and declining thereafter.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

I’m not sure Mancini’s the guy I’d target for a deal like this.    Optimistically, he’s probably a 2-WAR player during his remaining years of control (at ages 26-30), and declining thereafter.

I'll listen if the deal is right but I agree with Frobby as to his likely future.

[Natty]

Watch Mancin lead the team in BA this year...Again.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Natty said:

Watch Mancin lead the team in BA this year...Again.

And ninth-inning doubles in the month of August!

[Rene88]

2 minutes ago, Natty said:

Watch Mancin lead the team in BA this year...Again.

If Frobby is against it, it probably is a smart idea:) Dude is a professional hitter, one of the best eyes I have seen come through our organization. I like the idea a lot.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

And ninth-inning doubles in the month of August!

I always enjoy a "Mr. Baseball" quote!

[Beef Supreme]

41 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not sure Mancini’s the guy I’d target for a deal like this.    Optimistically, he’s probably a 2-WAR player during his remaining years of control (at ages 26-30), and declining thereafter.

Since you cited WAR, I would think you would be strongly on favor of signing Mancini @$22MM for five years. If you believe Mancini would collect 10 wins above replacement, his excess value would approach $60MM! Unless you are claiming that Mancini's total WAR for five years would be only 2.0 -- but even then the contract would not be a disaster. It would be a gamble that didn't quite payoff.

I am ambivalent about signing Mancini, though my calculus does not hinge on WAR. As long as I have control to trade him, I would explore the possibility of signing him to an extension.

[Natty]

So like how many Orioles have led the team in batting their rookie year?  

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, Natty said:

So like how many Orioles have led the team in batting their rookie year?  

What is I don't care Alex?

If you quoted OBP, OPS, OPS+ or wOBA I might care a smidgen.

I would hope that a defensively challenged left fielder could hit a little.  That's his job.

[Can_of_corn]

17 minutes ago, Natty said:

So like how many Orioles have led the team in batting their rookie year?  

Did you know that Nolan Reimold led the team in OPS and OBP in his rookie year?

How did that work out?

[tntoriole]

I would have done the deal yesterday.   But the Orioles won't.   And three years from now, we will be talking on this board about how now it is too late...again. 

[TradeAngelos]

Given his age I can't imagine Mancini agreeing to any extension. He could very easily be trading his one payday for nothing in overall scheme of things. He is better off playing out the arb years and hitting FA at 30 instead of 33. This doesn't really work when you have a guy who started his career at 24 and has limited PA's even at 26. 

[Hank Scorpio]

I like the general concept but I’m not sure he’s the guy. It’s probably because he falls into a more reasonable price range vs. a guy like Schoop.

I like Mancini but would more welcome an extension if he could be our first baseman. Unfortunately...... 

[Just Regular]

5 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

Given his age I can't imagine Mancini agreeing to any extension. He could very easily be trading his one payday for nothing in overall scheme of things. He is better off playing out the arb years and hitting FA at 30 instead of 33. This doesn't really work when you have a guy who started his career at 24 and has limited PA's even at 26. 

Or guaranteeing himself career earnings of tens of millions.  It's really just risk tolerance, and the marginal value after the first few million really tapers.  He looks like a solid hitter, but it isn't inconceivable Pedro Alvarez's fate could befall him before he finishes his Arb1 year.  

He was an 8th round pick so his bonus wasn't astronomical, and he'll be at the 500K minimum for 2018-2019.  If he's meh, he's probably $3M for his Arb1 year in 2020.  If he's meh again then, he could be a non-tender going into his Age 29 season with "only" $5M in career earnings.  And if he hurts himself anytime this year or next, he could be done around $2M.  I don't think the club needs to be in any huge rush to secure a locked in FA price for his Age 31 and beyond seasons.

Now Gausman at a buy low point, or Bundy before the roof really blows off, those would be dancing in the streets kind of moves.