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Per Olney tweet, look for resolution in 48 hours

ChaosLex

By ChaosLex
in Orioles Talk

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bluedog Perennial All-Star

bluedog

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At his age and the hard tme he's had getting a contract this season, i doubt he'd turn down arbitration.

If he has a big season (30 HRs, 100 RBIs) and we can get him again next year for what he would make in arbitration with the currently proposed contract as a starting point, then I'm all for it. And given his unwillingness to "settle" for a 1 year, 4.5 million dollar offer now, can you imagine him meekly taking arbitration if he posts back to back big seasons?

Either way the O's win.

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bluedog Perennial All-Star

bluedog

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And therefore, because he is not essential, IF he signs with us tomorrow-It will be a good value. It will not be one of these stupid, bid against yourself for three weeks, Scott Boras is the Antichrist, kind of contracts. It will be a simple, valuable deal that - baring injury to the player and playoff aspirations for the club - will be easy to move before the deadline.

Exactly - and if the O's offer him some logical incentives, it could end up being a win / win type contract for both parties, assuming Vlad performs.

It's such a wildly logical scenario that its hard to imagine any sane person not grasping it... :D

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Chevytrckman3 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Chevytrckman3

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If he has a big season (30 HRs, 100 RBIs) and we can get him again next year for what he would make in arbitration with the currently proposed contract as a starting point, then I'm all for it. And given his unwillingness to "settle" for a 1 year, 4.5 million dollar offer now, can you imagine him meekly taking arbitration if he posts back to back big seasons?

Either way the O's win.

Yes, but I thought in a arbitration hearing, it's either or. If the O's make an offer of 4.5 or 5 mil and Vlad wants say 10 mil, he either gets 4.5 or 10, theres no in between. If Vlad hits 30 HR and 100, an arbitrator wont agree with the Orioles side imo. I doubt the Orioles would even chance that and offer arbitration.

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RVAbird All-Star

RVAbird

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Yes, but I thought in a arbitration hearing, it's either or. If the O's make an offer of 4.5 or 5 mil and Vlad wants say 10 mil, he either gets 4.5 or 10, theres no in between. If Vlad hits 30 HR and 100, an arbitrator wont agree with the Orioles side imo. I doubt the Orioles would even chance that and offer arbitration.

We don't have a ton of FA arbitration cases to judge from, but I think arbiters (is it arbiters or arbitrators?) tend not to deviate by too much in either direction from the previous contract. IE you're not likely too see a 75%+ increase or decrease.

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bluedog Perennial All-Star

bluedog

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Yes, but I thought in a arbitration hearing, it's either or. If the O's make an offer of 4.5 or 5 mil and Vlad wants say 10 mil, he either gets 4.5 or 10, theres no in between. If Vlad hits 30 HR and 100, an arbitrator wont agree with the Orioles side imo. I doubt the Orioles would even chance that and offer arbitration.

Sure - but if the player goes nuts with his demands and is awarded far more than the team deems he's worth, they can cut him and pay only 30 or 45 days of pay. Arbitration awards are non-guaranteed. The fact that neither the team nor the player wants to end up in this situation tends to temper outrageous salary demands from either side.

Generally, arbitration hearings end up somewhere between the club's offer and the player's offer and the club's offer in this case would probably be based on his prior year's salary + incentives. So we could assume Vlad would still end up being a bargain (or at least a fair market contract) coming out of an arbitration hearing.

The trick for the club is to decide whether they have a better shot at compensation through a trade at the deadline if they expect the player to accept arbitration. If they expect the player to opt for free agency, then their options are more open.

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Arthur_Bryant All-Star

Arthur_Bryant

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Can I hire you to be the negotiator for my next client? With you on the other side of the table, our company would make a fortune.

Some basic economic & business principles you seem to have no grasp of -

1. The value of a thing is set by the market for that thing. Vlad's performance last year has no bearing on his value if there are no buyers. His value is set by what the buyers are willing to pay, period. If the O's offer him 4.5 million and no one beats that offer, 4.5 million IS his value, no matter how many home runs or RBIs he had.

2. People that judge the value of a thing based on how much money they have to spend are called sheep and the market's job is to shear them. Competent buyers apply an absolute value to an object based on their needs and then derive a maximum price based upon those needs - which they will not exceed under any circumstance. Your idea of "max budget = how much have i got in my wallet?" is a strategy for long term financial ruin.

3. Emotions have no place in business. Any negotiator that uses "I want" as a basis for a deal is an amateur at best. The fact that you suggest that your behavior as a consumer ("where I want something"...) has any logical bearing on high stakes contract negotiation shows just how naive you are. You want to see how successful teams are where the owners make emotional decisions based on what they "want"? Check out Daniel Snyder and the Redskins.

4. Negotiating million dollar contracts is not like buying a pack of gum at the mini-mart. Small scale purchase behavior bears absolutely no relation to transactions at the multi-million dollar level. The risk associated with buying a pack of gum is inconsequential. The risk associated with adding another million dollars to a contract is extraordinary.

What this all boils down to, is that you have absolutely no basis for determining what the O's have and haven't been able to master.

From a financial standpoint you are a 6 month old child with vomit on your chin, playing with numbered blocks claiming you know more about money than a multi-hundred million dollar organization filled with successful businessmen, accountants, lawyers and contract negotiators who have hundreds of years of combined experience with multi-million dollar deals.

I don't know what impresses me more: the irrefutable, point-by-point argument, or the scathing characterization, which is as well-deserved as it is harsh.

Really should be the last word in this thread and all similar others (though we both know it won't be).

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SrMeowMeow Hangout Grand Counsel

SrMeowMeow

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Once you get past half a season, there is really no such thing as fluke success in MLB. Clearly he has the abilities to be a successful hitter. He has power, he has a reasonably solid stroke, and he has a good batting eye and plate discipline. The question is not whether he can hit in MLB--he has already answered that--but why he didn't last season.

In this case, there's a reasonable explanation: his bum heel and slow recovery from surgery, possibly compounded by off-field distractions. Until he shows otherwise, the assumption has to be that when the problems are behind him, he will be back to what he was. You might say that you don't want to count on that happen, and that's fair enough. But you can't call his 2009 a fluke. It was for real; it didn't happen by accident.

Disagree. BABIP isn't stable even after a whole season; neither is UZR. Those are huge components.

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section18 All-Star

section18

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I mentioned on OH I was talking to someone who works at the warehouse about two weeks ago who said Mr. and Mrs Angelos both like Guerrero. He said they wished they would have signed him the first time when he went to the Angels. We all know how Buck acted at FanFest and AM did nothing to discount any interest in signing him. I still think he will be signed by Friday as I said earlier. The key part of this signing will be the physical. I think they'll work out the money part and he will fly in for his physical Thursday and hopefully pass it to the FO'S satisfaction. He has had knee problems in the past and the FO looks at physicals closely. I think he will sign and it's 50/50 if they accept the results of the physical.

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scOtt Hangout Grand Counsel

scOtt

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The next 48 hours expected to be pivotal in the Vladimir Guerrero contract talks. The O's have their offer on table;Vlad is looking for more

<iframe title="YouTube video player" class="youtube-player" type="text/html" width="480" height="390" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/sZrgxHvNNUc" frameborder="0" allowFullScreen></iframe>

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