2013 Draft Spot Tracker

[MCO'sFan]

I know this doesn't deserve it's own thread but, I just realized that it's August 21st and no one has posted a draft position tracker. Its hard to let go of the fear and just enjoy a great season but I'm trying.

[Trackmaster]

Looks like no top 10 pick for us in 2013. We'll have to wait a while before selecting our first player. But on the bright side, we won't have to wait long until our next picks. We got a competitive balance picks, and you don't have the better teams getting 5 first round picks anymore when they lose a few players.

[SurhoffRules]

We'll know more tonight but the Orioles should be drafting somewhere between 25th and 29th this year. Wow, just wow. In '97 our first pick was number 22 (Jayson Werth) and we had the 26th pick in '98. In 2000 we had the 14 overall pick, which was the most recent year we were out of the top ten.

[MurphDogg]

The Orioles will be drafting 24th.

[SurhoffRules]

This will be an interesting draft for a whole new reason. At 24th, there isn't going to be a consensus pick. In recent memory we've always had a reasonably good idea of who we'd end up getting as draft day got near (Exception: Hobgood). Or at the least, we'd have a short list of the BPAs. This will likely not be the case this year.

[waroriole]

There is a somewhat small chance that we could lose our 1st rounder this year by signing a Type A FA.

Also, we get the bonus poor team pick. I think that is late 30's or early 40's.

[SurhoffRules]

There is a somewhat small chance that we could lose our 1st rounder this year by signing a Type A FA.

Also, we get the bonus poor team pick. I think that is late 30's or early 40's.

Didn't the new agreement do away with compensation by rankings? In order to loose a pick, we would have to sign someone that another team made a qualifying offer on (top 125 player salaries from the previous year average together), and that player would have to decline the 1 year offer and then choose to sign with us.

[Trackmaster]

Yeah, the new system of compensation basically seems to me more of a toned down version of the franichise tag. The other team has to offer a relatively high amount, but only for one year (will be about $12,000,000) and in return, we basically give them our first rounder (not exactly, we forfeit our highest pick unless it's a top 10 overall, so we buy more than one of these players, we'd give up the next round draft pick, and they only get one sandwich pick). It does away with the loophole from when a player would be signed, the two teams actually profited from it, the new team only lost their 1st rounder, and the former team got that pick and a sandwich pick. It was why despite our poor finishes, we'd have to wait until like the 60's or 70's for our next pick after the first round.

And the competitive balance draft pick is also tradable, so we package it with prospects for a trade. I think that would be a more attractive option than a big free agency splash.

[waroriole]

Didn't the new agreement do away with compensation by rankings? In order to loose a pick, we would have to sign someone that another team made a qualifying offer on (top 125 player salaries from the previous year average together), and that player would have to decline the 1 year offer and then choose to sign with us.

I know that on Type A's you still lose a pick, but I don't think it goes to the other team anymore. As far as guys who will be Type A's, almost all be will offered arbitration by their clubs

[SurhoffRules]

I know that on Type A's you still lose a pick, but I don't think it goes to the other team anymore. As far as guys who will be Type A's, almost all be will offered arbitration by their clubs

You're definitely right about it just being a loss of a pick. No other team gets it, it just shrinks the 1st round. But this article seems to indicate that the Typing system is gone and done. The qualifying offers will be determined by the teams themselves, not by a ranking. Compensation picks for the old team will be tacked on to the end of the first round.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/05/qualifying-offers-for-free-agents.html

[waroriole]

So, does anyone know what kind of player we can expect in the mid 20's? Or late 30's, early 40's?

[86this]

So, does anyone know what kind of player we can expect in the mid 20's? Or late 30's, early 40's?

This by no means is what the teams would pick but would give you an idea of how players rank based on team drafting positions. http://www.mymlbdraft.com/2013-MLB-Mock-Draft

[Frobby]

Historically, 54% of no. 24 draft picks have made it to the majors, with an average career WAR of 2.0. Four players have been worth at least 10 WAR -- Alex Fernandez (26.5), Rondell White (25.5), Chad Billingsley (15.7) and Rich Dauer (12.4). Those four players represent about 75% of the total WAR of all players drafted at no. 24. Joe Blanton (9.2) and Terry Mulholland (8.4) are the only other selections worth more than 1.6 WAR. None of the last seven no. 24 draft picks have reached the majors yet. I'd say, based on their track records, that the 2006-08 picks will probably never reach the majors, while for the 2009-12 picks it's too early to say.

[MurphDogg]

Historically, 54% of no. 24 draft picks have made it to the majors, with an average career WAR of 2.0. Four players have been worth at least 10 WAR -- Alex Fernandez (26.5), Rondell White (25.5), Chad Billingsley (15.7) and Rich Dauer (12.4). Those four players represent about 75% of the total WAR of all players drafted at no. 24. Joe Blanton (9.2) and Terry Mulholland (8.4) are the only other selections worth more than 1.6 WAR. None of the last seven no. 24 draft picks have reached the majors yet. I'd say, based on their track records, that the 2006-08 picks will probably never reach the majors, while for the 2009-12 picks it's too early to say.

This paints a slightly more grim look than actual expectation. For whatever reason the 24th pick has been less successful than all other picks between 22 and 26. Chet Lemmon, Craig Biggio, Rafael Palmeiro, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jason Kendall, Aaron Sele, Mo Vaughn, Matt Cain, Mike Trout, Matt Garza, Chuck Knoblauch, Bill Buckner, Dan Plesac, Dave Henderson and Alan Trammel all went between 22 and 26. The overall point remains though, the odds are much longer for picks outside of the top 20. Interestingly, up until a couple years ago the 24th pick had still produced more WAR than the 11th pick.

[bpilktree]

Hopefully someoe slides like 2009. Mike Trout 25th, type player would be great lol.