ROY manipulation

[emmett16]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If a plus centerfielder is tearing it up you find room for him.

You aren't going to have four guys that are more valuable taking spots.

I’m not a fan of blanket statements.  I think there are plenty of scenarios where that wouldn’t be the case.  They will manage all their assets to the benefit of the entire portfolio.  That could go in a variety of different directions.  He will likely get about 900+ ABs in the minors just like other college players they’ve drafted in the 1st round. 

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

My point was, him struggling wouldn’t be the only reason for him to have rookie status in 2026.  He could be tearing it up but not have a place to play, similar to the IF situation currently.  I think they are in a unique and advantageous position to where they can take their time on some guys and have them fully developed and still not have a spot right away.  Of course, there are a ton of variables.  Injuries, trades, poor performance all come in to play.  

They didn’t draft him in hopes that he wins the MiL GG in 2025. If he’s ready, Mullins will be gone.

2025 is Mullins last year and he will be making a lot of money (for the Os).

He will also be 30 years old and at that point, his speed could really start to tail off and hurt his game. 
 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I’m not a fan of blanket statements.  I think there are plenty of scenarios where that wouldn’t be the case.  They will manage all their assets to the benefit of the entire portfolio.  That could go in a variety of different directions.  He will likely get about 900+ ABs in the minors just like other college players they’ve drafted in the 1st round. 

Outside of Cowser, the college guys under Elias got 700ish at bats.

Adley would have gotten less if not for some circumstances.

A healthy season by Bradfield should have him in the 500-600 range. His speed and defense are reportedly already ready for the majors. He has to hit. If he hits, he will be here by 2025 because of many factors, money for Mullins being one.

 

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I’m not a fan of blanket statements.  I think there are plenty of scenarios where that wouldn’t be the case.  They will manage all their assets to the benefit of the entire portfolio.  That could go in a variety of different directions.  He will likely get about 900+ ABs in the minors just like other college players they’ve drafted in the 1st round. 

I'm not a fan of them either but with his glove if he is "tearing it up" he needs to be in the majors.

Trent Grisham had a 666 OPS for a 87 OPS+ last year and was still worth 2 Wins because of his glove. 

Pair that with an above average bat and his stolen base potential?  You don't leave that at Norfolk.

[LookinUp]

15 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

If he’s that far away, he shouldn’t have been drafted in the first round.

You think a mid first round pick should be in the majors in 1.5 years? I mean, I know it’s not unheard of, but the Os didn’t pick a fully developed guy. They picked a tool shed that they want to build.

[emmett16]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They didn’t draft him in hopes that he wins the MiL GG in 2025. If he’s ready, Mullins will be gone.

2025 is Mullins last year and he will be making a lot of money (for the Os).

He will also be 30 years old and at that point, his speed could really start to tail off and hurt his game. 
 

I agree that’s one of the possible scenarios.  EBJ and Mullins are definitely tied to each other.  Both Mullins performance and EBJs performance will dictate path forward.  

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

You think a mid first round pick should be in the majors in 1.5 years? I mean, I know it’s not unheard of, but the Os didn’t pick a fully developed guy. They picked a tool shed that they want to build.

Don’t twist my words.

I don’t think any pick should be…but yes, a COLLEGE hitter, coming from an elite conference and elite team absolutely should be ready to be in the majors that quickly IF they are going to be a legit impact player.

Its not that Bradfield still can’t be a ML contributor but if he is struggling to hit A and AA pitching at age 22 coming from a great college, I think that’s a bad sign of him becoming an impact MLer.

He probably can still be a 4th OFer type guy but  I wouldn’t think he will be much more than that.

[emmett16]

38 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Outside of Cowser, the college guys under Elias got 700ish at bats.

Adley would have gotten less if not for some circumstances.

A healthy season by Bradfield should have him in the 500-600 range. His speed and defense are reportedly already ready for the majors. He has to hit. If he hits, he will be here by 2025 because of many factors, money for Mullins being one.

 

Westberg got 1236.  Correct, he has to hit.  He’s also not going to come up unless he plays every day.  If Mullins is performing and healthy, I don’t see them diminishing his value by taking away ABs.  Again, there are scenarios that he is up and an all time player in 2025.  I just don’t think he’s a failed prospect if for some reason he gets 140 ABs in 2025 and has a full time role in 2026.  

 

[LookinUp]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Don’t twist my words.

I don’t think any pick should be…but yes, a COLLEGE hitter, coming from an elite conference and elite team absolutely should be ready to be in the majors that quickly IF they are going to be a legit impact player.

Its not that Bradfield still can’t be a ML contributor but if he is struggling to hit A and AA pitching at age 22 coming from a great college, I think that’s a bad sign of him becoming an impact MLer.

He probably can still be a 4th OFer type guy but  I wouldn’t think he will be much more than that.

If I had to bet, I’d say that his bat is pretty good this year. I don’t see him failing, but I don’t see him forcing promotions either. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Westberg got 1236.  Correct, he has to hit.  He’s also not going to come up unless he plays every day.  If Mullins is performing and healthy, I don’t see them diminishing his value by taking away ABs.  Again, there are scenarios that he is up and an all time player in 2025.  I just don’t think he’s a failed prospect if for some reason he gets 140 ABs in 2025 and has a full time role in 2026.  

 

First off we are talking about RoY manipulation, there is a gap between RoY winner and failed prospect.

Honestly if he ends up being a fourth outfielder/defensive specialist in the majors than he hasn't "failed".

Folks have weirdly high standards for prospects.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Westberg got 1236.  Correct, he has to hit.  He’s also not going to come up unless he plays every day.  If Mullins is performing and healthy, I don’t see them diminishing his value by taking away ABs.  Again, there are scenarios that he is up and an all time player in 2025.  I just don’t think he’s a failed prospect if for some reason he gets 140 ABs in 2025 and has a full time role in 2026.  

 

If he is in the majors after 140 MiL at bats in 2025, that means he was ready to be in the majors to start the 2025 season. 

 

[emmett16]

36 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not a fan of them either but with his glove if he is "tearing it up" he needs to be in the majors.

Trent Grisham had a 666 OPS for a 87 OPS+ last year and was still worth 2 Wins because of his glove. 

Pair that with an above average bat and his stolen base potential?  You don't leave that at Norfolk.

All I’m saying is that it’s performance + performance of the guys/team in front of him.  They are going to manage assets to get the most value of out of the entire portfolio.  

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

First off we are talking about RoY manipulation, there is a gap between RoY winner and failed prospect.

Honestly if he ends up being a fourth outfielder/defensive specialist in the majors than he hasn't "failed".

Folks have weirdly high standards for prospects.

The Os didn’t draft him to be a back up OFer/role player.

If that’s all he becomes, he will have failed. Now, that doesn’t mean he can’t be useful but he will not have lived up to the player they paid 4M for.

 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, emmett16 said:

All I’m saying is that it’s performance + performance of the guys/team in front of him.  They are going to manage assets to get the most value of out of the entire portfolio.  

Sure, and if he's "that guy" they are going to manage one of those assets out of town to make room for him.

Leaving him in the minors isn't getting you the most value.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

The Os didn’t draft him to be a back up OFer/role player.

If that’s all he becomes, he will have failed. Now, that doesn’t mean he can’t be useful but he will not have lived up to the player they paid 4M for.

 

Folks have weirdly high standards for prospects.