Is Wieters Worth $100 Million?

[Camden_yardbird]

Well, I think the value of Matt just jumped on the trade market, too, then! This could be very good news in a weird way, for the Orioles.

I agree. It's good and bad. I think there is no way the Orioles can put up the $100 million it will take to keep Wieters, but at the same time, you have to think the McCann deal inflated his trade value a bit. I think the Orioles really have no choice but to trade Wieters this offseason.

[TradeAngelos]

I can see the O's doing something similar for Wieters with his two arbitration years lessening the contract value.

McCann's 5/86 is 17M per year plus a vesting year at 15M.

Wieters could get 8M, 13M, 17M, 17M, 17M with a 15M vesting option. That is 5/72M plus a max of a 15M vesting option to make it 87M. That would be market value.

I can see the O's doing that.

Adam got 6/85.5M. This is in the same ball park. I think the O's value Matt as much as Adam.

That is 14.4M for 5 years or 14.5M for 6 years.

This would be Matt's prime years. Ages 28-32 with as option year on age 33.

That would be great for the O's! Wieters and more importantly Boras...not so much. You are 2 years short on that deal, which is only a 3 year extension...which has zero chance of happening.

More like :

2014 - 8m

2015 - 13m

2016 - 15m

2017 - 16m

2018 - 18m

2019 - 19m

2020 - 20m

2021 - 15m Vesting option

That is 5/87 extension with potential to take it to $102 million over 6.

That pays Wieters through his age 34 year, just like McCann. Again, a 3 year extension is not happening with Boras. Ever.

[Frobby]

Updating my prior post now that McCann has signed, showing the contracts of catchers and the fWAR they've accumulated since 2009 (Wieters' debut season):

Mauer 24.2 fWAR -- 8 yrs, $184 mm (signed in 2011 before his age 28 season)

Molina 22.6 fWAR -- 10 yrs, $96.5 mm (includes a 5/$75 mm extension signed in 2012 before his age 29 season)

Posey 17.8 fWAR -- 9 yrs, $164 mm (signed in 2013 before his age 26 season and includes 4 arb years)

McCann 17.5 fWAR -- 5 yrs, $85 mm with vesting option for 6th year at $15 mm (just signed in November 2013 before his age 30 season)

Ruiz 16.1 fWAR -- 3 yrs, $26 mm (just signed in November 2013 before his age 35 season)

Wieters 14.4 fWAR

Montero 13.5 fWAR -- 6 yrs, $66 mm (signed in 2012 before his age 28 season and included one arb year)

Martin 12.3 fWAR -- 2 yrs, $17 mm (signed in 2013 before his age 30 season)

Santana 11.9 fWAR -- 5 yrs, $21 mm (signed in 2012; all 5 yrs were under team control anyway, option for $12 mm in 2017)

What I take away from this is that there's no way Wieters is signing for only five years now. He's going to want seven years at least, and he really has no reason to sign unless he gets it.

[TradeAngelos]

Updating my prior post now that McCann has signed, showing the contracts of catchers and the fWAR they've accumulated since 2009 (Wieters' debut season):

Mauer 24.2 fWAR -- 8 yrs, $184 mm (signed in 2011 before his age 28 season)

Molina 22.6 fWAR -- 10 yrs, $96.5 mm (includes a 5/$75 mm extension signed in 2012 before his age 29 season)

Posey 17.8 fWAR -- 9 yrs, $164 mm (signed in 2013 before his age 26 season and includes 4 arb years)

McCann 17.5 fWAR -- 5 yrs, $85 mm with vesting option for 6th year at $15 mm (just signed in November 2013 before his age 30 season)

Ruiz 16.1 fWAR -- 3 yrs, $26 mm (just signed in November 2013 before his age 35 season)

Wieters 14.4 fWAR

Montero 13.5 fWAR -- 6 yrs, $66 mm (signed in 2012 before his age 28 season and included one arb year)

Martin 12.3 fWAR -- 2 yrs, $17 mm (signed in 2013 before his age 30 season)

Santana 11.9 fWAR -- 5 yrs, $21 mm (signed in 2012; all 5 yrs were under team control anyway, option for $12 mm in 2017)

What I take away from this is that there's no way Wieters is signing for only five years now. He's going to want seven years at least, and he really has no reason to sign unless he gets it.

Exactamundo.

So the Orioles have to decide...am I paying him the 7/110 or so it will take right now(we hope) or not? If the answer is no he must be traded. Now. Not next year...not at the trade deadline....not next offseason.

[Bradysburns]

Updating my prior post now that McCann has signed, showing the contracts of catchers and the fWAR they've accumulated since 2009 (Wieters' debut season):

Mauer 24.2 fWAR -- 8 yrs, $184 mm (signed in 2011 before his age 28 season)

Molina 22.6 fWAR -- 10 yrs, $96.5 mm (includes a 5/$75 mm extension signed in 2012 before his age 29 season)

Posey 17.8 fWAR -- 9 yrs, $164 mm (signed in 2013 before his age 26 season and includes 4 arb years)

McCann 17.5 fWAR -- 5 yrs, $85 mm with vesting option for 6th year at $15 mm (just signed in November 2013 before his age 30 season)

Ruiz 16.1 fWAR -- 3 yrs, $26 mm (just signed in November 2013 before his age 35 season)

Wieters 14.4 fWAR

Montero 13.5 fWAR -- 6 yrs, $66 mm (signed in 2012 before his age 28 season and included one arb year)

Martin 12.3 fWAR -- 2 yrs, $17 mm (signed in 2013 before his age 30 season)

Santana 11.9 fWAR -- 5 yrs, $21 mm (signed in 2012; all 5 yrs were under team control anyway, option for $12 mm in 2017)

What I take away from this is that there's no way Wieters is signing for only five years now. He's going to want seven years at least, and he really has no reason to sign unless he gets it.

Great research, as always, Frobby. Thanks. Looking at your list, I would say $12-$14 would seem to be the zone for Wieters' contract, if he signed today. So... 7/84 million... to 7/98. I don't think this team can afford that for a defensive specialist with some power, but a weak OPS and a terrible record of hitting in the clutch. If Matt really is going to try to max out with Boras... if he's going 100% mercenary (and I wouldn't blame anyone for eschewing the "hometown discount" thing)... then I would say we need to part ways now. We should be able to get back something really good for a $100 million player!!

[Can_of_corn]

Great research, as always, Frobby. Thanks. Looking at your list, I would say $12-$14 would seem to be the zone for Wieters' contract, if he signed today. So... 7/84 million... to 7/98. I don't think this team can afford that for a defensive specialist with some power, but a weak OPS and a terrible record of hitting in the clutch. If Matt really is going to try to max out with Boras... if he's going 100% mercenary (and I wouldn't blame anyone for eschewing the "hometown discount" thing)... then I would say we need to part ways now. We should be able to get back something really good for a $100 million player!!

Because this is an actual thing?

Because he didn't lead MLB in sac flies?

The man has flaws in his game there is no need to make stuff up.

[wildcard]

Updating my prior post now that McCann has signed, showing the contracts of catchers and the fWAR they've accumulated since 2009 (Wieters' debut season):

Mauer 24.2 fWAR -- 8 yrs, $184 mm (signed in 2011 before his age 28 season)

Molina 22.6 fWAR -- 10 yrs, $96.5 mm (includes a 5/$75 mm extension signed in 2012 before his age 29 season)

Posey 17.8 fWAR -- 9 yrs, $164 mm (signed in 2013 before his age 26 season and includes 4 arb years)

McCann 17.5 fWAR -- 5 yrs, $85 mm with vesting option for 6th year at $15 mm (just signed in November 2013 before his age 30 season)

Ruiz 16.1 fWAR -- 3 yrs, $26 mm (just signed in November 2013 before his age 35 season)

Wieters 14.4 fWAR

Montero 13.5 fWAR -- 6 yrs, $66 mm (signed in 2012 before his age 28 season and included one arb year)

Martin 12.3 fWAR -- 2 yrs, $17 mm (signed in 2013 before his age 30 season)

Santana 11.9 fWAR -- 5 yrs, $21 mm (signed in 2012; all 5 yrs were under team control anyway, option for $12 mm in 2017)

What I take away from this is that there's no way Wieters is signing for only five years now. He's going to want seven years at least, and he really has no reason to sign unless he gets it.

I can't agree at all.

1) Two players on this belong on a separate list. Posey and Mauer both won MVP awards prior to signing their long term agreements. They are superior hitters. Something that Wieters has not shown the ability to be. So take their 8 and 9 year agreements as set them aside. No one is doing that for Wieters. He has not earned it.

Your formating on Molina is a little misleading at first until I realized that he never had a contract longer than 5 years and was never committed to the team more then one year before that or 6 years. McCann's contract is bigger than any single agreement that Moina has had.

Now look at the rest of the contracts. McCann 5 year contract for 85m with a vesting option for 15M is the closest comp to Wieters. Yes, Wieters is younger but he doesn't hit as well and hitting is what GMs pay most of the money for. A very good defensive catcher might earn 4M a year if he can't hit. But a good hitting catcher gets paid.

For a catcher injuries are as big a risk as age. Therefore length of contract increases risk.

So I don't see where this proves that Wieters deserves 7 years.

Fact is that 5/72 with a 15m vesting option year is a good deal for Matt. Its whether he wants as good deal or wants to take the chance over the next two years and follow Boras into free agency that we don't know about. I would make the offer and see what happens.

[Frobby]

I can't agree at all.

1) Two players on this belong on a separate list. Posey and Mauer both won MVP awards prior to signing their long term agreements. They are superior hitters. Something that Wieters has not shown the ability to be. So take their 8 and 9 year agreements as set them aside. No one is doing that for Wieters. He has not earned it.

Your formating on Molina is a little misleading at first until I realized that he never had a contract longer than 5 years and was never committed to the team more then one year before that or 6 years. McCann's contract is bigger than any single agreement that Moina has had.

Now look at the rest of the contracts. McCann 5 year contract for 85m with a vesting option for 15M is the closest comp to Wieters. Yes, Wieters is younger but he doesn't hit as well and hitting is what GMs pay most of the money for. A very good defensive catcher might earn 4M a year if he can't hit. But a good hitting catcher gets paid.

For a catcher injuries are as big a risk as age. Therefore length of contract increases risk.

So I don't see where this proves that Wieters deserves 7 years.

Fact is that 5/72 with a 15m vesting option year is a good deal for Matt. Its whether he wants as good deal or wants to take the chance over the next two years and follow Boras into free agency that we don't know about. I would make the offer and see what happens.

I think you need to look at Wieters' age and where he is viz. free agency. McCann is proof that a free agent catcher going into his age 30 season can get a five year deal. Montero is proof that a catcher with one year of arbitration eligibility left going into his 28-year old season can get a six-year deal. Molina is proof that a catcher with one year left on his current deal going into his age 29 season can get another five years on his deal. All three of those guys got commitments that lasted five years after they would have been (or were) eligible for free agency. For Wieters, that's seven years from now. I don't think he'll accept less. Of course, we have no idea what ideas were actually floated by the Orioles to Boras in the past.

[Frobby]

Exactamundo.

So the Orioles have to decide...am I paying him the 7/110 or so it will take right now(we hope) or not? If the answer is no he must be traded. Now. Not next year...not at the trade deadline....not next offseason.

Great research, as always, Frobby. Thanks. Looking at your list, I would say $12-$14 would seem to be the zone for Wieters' contract, if he signed today. So... 7/84 million... to 7/98. I don't think this team can afford that for a defensive specialist with some power, but a weak OPS and a terrible record of hitting in the clutch. If Matt really is going to try to max out with Boras... if he's going 100% mercenary (and I wouldn't blame anyone for eschewing the "hometown discount" thing)... then I would say we need to part ways now. We should be able to get back something really good for a $100 million player!!

I don't like the word "must." I've got nothing against shopping Wieters to see what we'd get for him. But whatever it is, it has to be worth more than two years of Wieters' services plus a first round draft pick in 2016. If not, I'm perfectly happy to ride it out with Wieters for two years.

[wildcard]

I think you need to look at Wieters' age and where he is viz. free agency. McCann is proof that a free agent catcher going into his age 30 season can get a five year deal. Montero is proof that a catcher with one year of arbitration eligibility left going into his 28-year old season can get a six-year deal. Molina is proof that a catcher with one year left on his current deal going into his age 29 season can get another five years on his deal. All three of those guys got commitments that lasted five years after they would have been (or were) eligible for free agency. For Wieters, that's seven years from now. I don't think he'll accept less. Of course, we have no idea what ideas were actually floated by the Orioles to Boras in the past.

First off, Montero signed a 5/60 deal not a 6/66M deal that you posted.

Here is a link and it is confirmed by Cots Contracts: http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/nl/diamondbacks/story/2012-05-25/diamondbacks-give-montero-new-contract/55212632/1

So neither McCann nor Montero nor Molina got 7 years deals as you are suggesting for Wieters. In fact none of them got 6 year deals. McCann got the most which is 5 years with a vesting option which is what I am said the O's should offer Wieters.

Wieters and Boras can do anything. They can hold out for 10 years if they want. But if Wieters wants a fair market deal, what McCann got as a 5 year deal with a vesting option is on the high side of his value. He can wait two years for free agency. Take the risk of injury over the next two years and the risk he has another offensive year like the one he just had which would lower his value. Or he can cash in now and play for the team he knows, for the manager he likes and the city that has been good to him. If the O's make the offer, its his choice.

[Frobby]

First off, Montero signed a 5/60 deal not a 6/66M deal that you posted.

Here is a link and it is confirmed by Cots Contracts: http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/nl/diamondbacks/story/2012-05-25/diamondbacks-give-montero-new-contract/55212632/1

So neither McCann nor Montero nor Molina got 7 years deals as you are suggesting for Wieters. In fact none of them got 6 year deals. McCann got the most which is 5 years with a vesting option which is what I am said the O's should offer Wieters.

Wieters and Boras can do anything. They can hold out for 10 years if they want. But if Wieters wants a fair market deal, what McCann got as a 5 year deal with a vesting option is on the high side of his value. He can wait two years for free agency. Take the risk of injury over the next two years and the risk he has another offensive year like the one he just had which would lower his value. Or he can cash in now and play for the team he knows, for the manager he likes and the city that has been good to him. If the O's make the offer, its his choice.

You are right about Montero's contract, but it was signed a year before it went into effect, like Molina's, so in each case the team was committing to a contract that would extend five years after the player would be eligible for free agency and six years from when the contract was signed. I don't think Wieters will have any problem finding a team that will sign him for five years in the 2015 offseason, and so I doubt he'll agree to less than seven years now. Just my opinion.

[wildcard]

You are right about Montero's contract, but it was signed a year before it went into effect, like Molina's, so in each case the team was committing to a contract that would extend five years after the player would be eligible for free agency and six years from when the contract was signed. I don't think Wieters will have any problem finding a team that will sign him for five years in the 2015 offseason, and so I doubt he'll agree to less than seven years now. Just my opinion.

You may be right but there is no logic to your statement. You say Montero and Molina signed 5 year contracts a year ahead which makes six years ahead but you insisted the Wieters will insisted on 7 years. Sounds like he are not relying on any of the contract data but rather Boras' history of driving his client to Free Agency. If that is the case then forget all the data. Its meaningless in your analysis.

You should have not posted the contract data and just said Boras will hold Wieters out of contract negotiations until he becomes a free agent.

[TradeAngelos]

You may be right but there is no logic to your statement. You say Montero and Molina signed 5 year contracts a year ahead which makes six years ahead but you insisted the Wieters will insisted on 7 years. Sounds like he are not relying on any of the contract data but rather Boras' history of driving his client to Free Agency. If that is the case then forget all the data. Its meaningless in your analysis.

You should have not posted the contract data and just said Boras will hold Wieters out of contract negotiations until he becomes a free agent.

The most relevant deal is the most recent one. And with that being the case, Boras and his client will stand firm on 7 years....minimum.

If McCann got a deal through his age 34 year why shouldn't Wieters? That is exactly what Boras will say, and he has every right to.

[CA-ORIOLE]

The most relevant deal is the most recent one. And with that being the case, Boras and his client will stand firm on 7 years....minimum.

If McCann got a deal through his age 34 year why shouldn't Wieters? That is exactly what Boras will say, and he has every right to.

Not too many teams are giving out longer term contracts out anymore. Boras can say whatever he wants.

[Ori-Al]

Maps offense is on a downward trend the past three seasons like a hitter 10 or more years older than he actually is. For the Orioles to sign him to an extension would, in my opinion, be a big mistake. Rick Dempsey with power is not worth a nine figure contract.