Orioles close to acquiring Corbin Burnes (Update: Acquired for Joey Ortiz and DL Hall)

[Tony-OH]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

I had to imagine the Brewers thought Hall had starting pitcher upside when they pulled this deal. But they will soon understand why that won't work long term. Still, I'm sure he's excited to have another shot at the rotation. 

Willy Adames is an incredible defensive shortstop with a plus arm, something Ortiz does not have. The Brewers must really believe in Ortiz's bat to think of him at 3B, but in my mind, a lot of Ortiz's value comes from his defense. The Brewers probably look at Ortiz as Adames' long term replacement since he becomes a free agent after the 2024 season.

I wish them both well. They are two good guys who deserve a shot, but from an Orioles perspective, they were the kinds of guys they are able to move due to their prospect depth.

 

[Bemorewins]

34 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Do you want to do that though for a 30 year old pitcher likely to command 200+ mil over five or more seasons? Maybe he ends up having a Scherzer like career and it will be worth it, but it seems risky. 

I rather extend Gunnar and Jackson, unless we are going to be able to start dishing out huge contracts like candy.  

Yes to the first question. And as far as extensions go, when you have a payroll this low with ownership coming in who has pockets that deep you can really do all 3. The main two owners have a net worth more than all of 2 current owners in MLB (Mets and Braves). And that is not even talking about Bloomberg's 17 billion+ net worth. We are not going to be in a position where we have to operate like a small market/Raysian/whatever people were trying to dress the cheapness of Angelos as. Think Padres/Rangers/Astros in terms of financial choices going forward. Rubenstein wants to win a world series, his history shows that he's not afraid to spend money, and he LOVES Baltimore and the Orioles.

[Tony-OH]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think Elias has been sitting on his hands.

So, in your mind, you think this was announced and then Elias called up the Brewers and they did a trade of this magnitude in less than 2 days?

Is it possible that he was not able to add $15 million to the payroll until JA got his payday?

[UMDTerrapins]

I’m in awe of the potential for the ‘24 Orioles. This is the most talented group I’ve ever seen as an O’s fan, and with the most organizational depth I’ve ever seen. This is predominantly home grown team, and yet we still have the top farm system in baseball. Enjoy this! This is a special time and we earned this as fans. 
 

And if you don’t lock up Elias long term in your first act as new owners, your incompetence is already on display. Pay the man! 

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well I was flipping tabs back and forth between the White Sox board 

Oh that was a good read. The Brewers board has much more down to earth fans. Less “insiders” tho. 

[interloper]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

Is it possible that he was not able to add $15 million to the payroll until JA got his payday?

That's how I see it. 

[ChuckS]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Is it possible that he was not able to add $15 million to the payroll until JA got his payday?

I was thinking the same thing and mentioned it earlier, but we may never know the answer to that. 

I'm just happy we got him, no matter the circumstances. Hopefully the ownership change allows us to spend some money on another reliever now. 

[OriolesMagic83]

I guess we'll never know if acquiring Burnes was directly related to Rubenstein buying the team, but it is interesting that the O's added $15 mill (or whatever Burnes arbitration salary was) to the 2024 payroll.  It seemed to me there was very little hope of adding much payroll at all, maybe a 5th starter or non elite reliever.  Maybe this is John Angelos' nice gesture as he exits, knowing Rubinstein not him will be paying the increased payroll.

[SilentJames]

19 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

So Burnes will be 30 at the end of next year when he is a FA. He will play all on 2025 at 30 as he has an October Birthday. So what would be a reasonable extention foe him?

Comps:

1) Gerrit Cole, Yankees: 9 years, $324 million (2020-28); Age 29 season to begin, had not won a CYA, 3 time AS.

2) Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals – 7 years, $245M (2020-26); Age 31 season, had not won a CYA, 3 time AS

3) David Price, Red Sox,  7 years, $217 million (2016-22); Age 29 season, one CYA, 5 time AS

4) Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers, 7 years $215 million (2014-2020); Age 26 season, 3 time CYA, one MVP, 4 time AS

5) Zach Greinke, D-backs, 6 years, $206.5 million (2016-21); Age 32, one CYA, 2 GG, 3 time AS

2025 best case scenario for Burnes (he is both an AS and wins the CYA in 2024) Age 30 season, 2 CYA, 4 time AS.

 

So I would speculate that a reasonable offer to Burnes for a FA contract next year would be right around Strasburg money: 7 years and $250 M. Any thoughts on that?

I think that is reasonable for him to expect. I think the Orioles would be foolish to give it to him. However, lets say they do but it is significantly front-loaded (something like 70% of the value is in the first four years) maybe that would be a thing? 

Still, this might be one year of Burnes, so be it. Maybe he experiences the immaculate vibes of the team and clubhouse and says, "I want to ride with this for a bit." and takes a four year deal with two mutual options? 

The important thing is the team is in the position to HAVE this conversation because they made the move. 

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Looks like this was an already negotiated deal that came together once Elias could get approval to add $15 million in payroll. Just a shame that we would’ve entered the season without this deal because of that. Also, I’ll assume that’s why we chose Flaherty over Montgomery at the trade deadline last year. Montgomery was owed like $5 million more post deadline.

We’re so lucky that we didn’t have to pinch penny’s and waste a Adley/Gunnar year.  

With the very deep pockets of this ownership group and the talent of Elias/Sig, I don't think we need to look at things any longer in terms of windows. We are going to have a good to great team every year that we have this owner and this front office. "Windows" are for the cheap and/or stupid teams.

[Going Underground]

The #Orioles won't miss facing Corbin Burnes, who has never allowed a run in 15 innings over 2 starts against them. 4/13/22 at BAL: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K's 6/7/23 at MIL: 8 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 K's He also threw 8 no-hit, scoreless innings in only start vs. NYY on 9/10/23.

[Mooreisbetter27]

DL Hall with a classy response to Orioles post thanking them for their time here:

"Thank you BIRDLAND.  My time there was special and something I'll never forget.  Bmore is forever in my heart!"

(Sorry, can't link from instagram from my work computer).

[SilentJames]

3 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I guess we'll never know if acquiring Burnes was directly related to Rubenstein buying the team, but it is interesting that the O's added $15 mill (or whatever Burnes arbitration salary was) to the 2024 payroll.  It seemed to me there was very little hope of adding much payroll at all, maybe a 5th starter or non elite reliever.  Maybe this is John Angelos' nice gesture as he exits, knowing Rubinstein not him will be paying the increased payroll.

If there is one thing that we can say about John Angelos is that he is leaving the team in a much better position than it was in when he became the point person. I know that became official in 2020 - but he was COO and an EVP all the way back to 99, I figure he was probably functionally leading things for a bit longer than the official 2020 transfer. 

Edited February 2 by SilentJames

[foxfield]

5 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

You think it is pure coincidence that we sit on our hands all offseason, then new ownership announced and 48 hours later this kind of trade takes place? 

I think it isn't that easy.  You the events as being two events in 24 hours.  But it didn't go down like that.  Those conversations for the sale...and the trade have been ongoing for months.  The difference is Elias has been aware of both sides and we have not.   I can assure you though that Elias has not been sitting on his hands. 

That said, I do believe that the very small chance of keeping Burnes if he falls in love with Baltimore, made Elias pull the trigger.  But the primary factors were likely these:

1). Cost of Burnes for 1 year was not cheap, but left the farm still stacked and the top 5 on board.

2).  Burnes is better than Cease, and the massive price of Cease did not justify the second year.

3). Landing an actual, indisputable TOR literally made heads explode in NY, BOS and TOR.  

IF the Orioles were to sign say....Montgomery, THEN, I would say the new ownership is giving the nod.

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I had to imagine the Brewers thought Hall had starting pitcher upside when they pulled this deal. But they will soon understand why that won't work long term. Still, I'm sure he's excited to have another shot at the rotation. 

Willy Adames is an incredible defensive shortstop with a plus arm, something Ortiz does not have. The Brewers must really believe in Ortiz's bat to think of him at 3B, but in my mind, a lot of Ortiz's value comes from his defense. The Brewers probably look at Ortiz as Adames' long term replacement since he becomes a free agent after the 2024 season.

I wish them both well. They are two good guys who deserve a shot, but from an Orioles perspective, they were the kinds of guys they are able to move due to their prospect depth.

 

The Brewers have to talk about Ortiz as a 3B while Adames is still on the team.  After trading Burnes, trading Adames (Dodgers?) seems like a logical next move.